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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I


PennMan

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CTP updated its Harrisburg grid for 1-3" Thursday night. I can't tell you how excited I'd be for an inch of snow!

I think you'll see an inch or two, with higher amounts to your north near I-80 and also back my way. This was never a big storm for us, just a nice little snow event.

Tues-Wed still look interesting, and so does next weekend. Lots on the table over the next two weeks!

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Here we go my friends.... my model of choice for tonight:

00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_132.jpg

Looks very reasonable with the nao going briefly positive and a nice closed low cruising in from the west. This should have no problem riding up the coast with some ridging in place. :snowman:

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Here we go my friends.... my model of choice for tonight:

Looks very reasonable with the nao going briefly positive and a nice closed low cruising in from the west. This should have no problem riding up the coast with some ridging in place. :snowman:

Yea i've been waiting for the modelling to begin their return back to what they had a couple days ago. GFS will probably gets this solution back eventually too. I feel this miller B scenario ends up being how this event pans out ultimately given the interaction of the shortwaves out west. It's what the GFS and GGEM had previously before they stomped out the soutthwestern sw and associated wave out to sea too far southeast. Fortunately it appears there's still the blocking over the top in canada that should allow the storm to evolve in the manner the GGEM has if the shortwaves end up interacting as depicted there...cuz otherwise we'd prolly be talking about a cutting scenario instead of the nice trajectory (for CPA) the 500 low takes. Like the chances of this giving central PA a good solid snowfall at this stage in the game. Onto the Euro we go here shortly.

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Yea i've been waiting for the modelling to begin their return back to what they had a couple days ago. GFS will probably gets this solution back eventually too. I feel this miller B scenario ends up being how this event pans out ultimately given the interaction of the shortwaves out west. It's what the GFS and GGEM had previously before they stomped out the soutthwestern sw and associated wave out to sea too far southeast. Fortunately it appears there's still the blocking over the top in canada that should allow the storm to evolve in the manner the GGEM has if the shortwaves end up interacting as depicted there...cuz otherwise we'd prolly be talking about a cutting scenario instead of the nice trajectory (for CPA) the 500 low takes. Like the chances of this giving central PA a good solid snowfall at this stage in the game. Onto the Euro we go here shortly.

I would be very surprised if it showed a wildly suppressed storm tonight.

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haha apparently thats what its doing for the 0z run this eve, albeit a bit better than 12z.

That's what Ive heard. At least it took a step in our direction.

I dunno though, that model just hasn't been the same the last two years. It used to be the guru several days out, now it's just like the rest of our corps.

But the overall trend tonight has been nw and stronger. We'll see what happens tomorrow (and Friday and Saturday.....) :arrowhead:

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That's what Ive heard. At least it took a step in our direction.

I dunno though, that model just hasn't been the same the last two years. It used to be the guru several days out, now it's just like the rest of our corps.

But the overall trend tonight has been nw and stronger. We'll see what happens tomorrow (and Friday and Saturday.....) :arrowhead:

At least there will be some fun and games to deal with about this time tomorrow with the first system.

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That's what Ive heard. At least it took a step in our direction.

I dunno though, that model just hasn't been the same the last two years. It used to be the guru several days out, now it's just like the rest of our corps.

But the overall trend tonight has been nw and stronger. We'll see what happens tomorrow (and Friday and Saturday.....) :arrowhead:

At least there will be some fun and games to deal with about this time tomorrow with the first system.

Can I be like the people who used to email me when I was the marketing communications manager at AccuWx and think you guys control the weather?

In other words, I'd like to order the 06Z GFS? drunk.gif

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Can I be like the people who used to email me when I was the marketing communications manager at AccuWx and think you guys control the weather?

In other words, I'd like to order the 06Z GFS? drunk.gif

I'll have what you're having....

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Hey, check out this map. You'll love it - just look where that hole is located!

This is ok. It was never a big event for us. Just some squalls and light accums. Next week the storm machine starts up. Let's see what the 12z GEM and Euro have. The GFS seems to be in it's progressive/too fast bias mode. But we shall see. Still 5 days out.

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Oh, yah, I'm aware. It's just funny that in tiny non-impact events we are our own little snowhole. :) Excited to see what happens in the next few days for the midweek gig.

that hole is not us is it, That's lancaster county i think and the other hole is North Western Cumberland / south western Perry County

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