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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

PennMan

By PennMan,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

just saw DT's map. very bullish back here in God's country but i sure do like it.

Yea i would personally love to see this outcome myself :lol:. His map is a pretty decent stab, I would assume he is banking on a much further penetrating and expansive precipitation shield than what is being modeled. His caption for that also says that the western side is "the REAL tricky part", which of course.. it is. Sometimes these gulf storms have a good bit more QPF than what the models give it credit for. I did have a look at the 12z simulated wrf radar as well as the new 9z srefs and both have pretty notable shifts west of the 6z wrf-rad and 3z sref. The 9z srefs gets some pretty decent 50-60% probs of 1"+ back to KAOO now (same for IPT). If some of the sref members follow the 12z nams somewhat westward shift, the 15z sref could look even better than that. For now though, very leery of things west of I-81. If i were to do a map currently i'd stick the 1" line slightly on or nw of the KAOO/KUNV/KIPT line. As for the I-81 corridor and east, I think CTP best stop leaning on HPC and get some headlines out to at least match their counterparts from the DC weather service.

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bluestring

bluestring

Posted
Posted

Watches are out for Dauphin, Schuylkill, Lebanon, Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties

DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...

GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER

1201 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH

MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATION...THE COUNTIES OF ADAMS...DAUPHIN...YORK...LANCASTER...

LEBANON AND SCHUYLKILL.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL

BECOME STEADIER THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE

SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY SUNDAY...BECOMING

NORTH AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH

POSSIBLE. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING

OF THE SNOW.

* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND AREAS OF VERY POOR VISIBILITY

IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

* TEMPERATURES...25 TO 30 DEGREES.

* VISIBILITIES...AVERAGING ONE HALF TO ONE MILE...WITH TIMES OF

ONE QUARTER OF A MILE VISIBILITY.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

I think this is one of those storms that has a very sharp western precip gradient and could really screw some areas not far from where it's a blizzard. There's no real overrunning setup or big infusion of moisture like from an El Nino enhanced storm or anything, the snow is falling mostly from dynamic lift only. Unfortunately, I think people west of the Susquehanna are going to be disappointed as of now, and maybe even west of the Delaware if models like the Nam are right. This looks to be a very north-south oriented system and very tight gradient.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Point and click and county forecasts are updated.

Here is Dauphin's county forecast (pretty strongly worded)

Sunday Cloudy. Periods of snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Sunday night Snow. Areas of blowing snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Additional heavy snow accumulation possible. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Monday Areas of blowing snow in the morning. Snow in the morning, then becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning with visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Additional light snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Sampled around some further west counties, Bedford, Somerset, and Cambria counties all have 1-3 inches listed for Sunday and then snow Sun night and Monday morning. So it appears that they could be gearing up to eventually raise advisories for the south central counties and northeast adjacent to the watch area.

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afvet89

afvet89

Posted
Posted

Yea i would personally love to see this outcome myself :lol:. His map is a pretty decent stab, I would assume he is banking on a much further penetrating and expansive precipitation shield than what is being modeled. His caption for that also says that the western side is "the REAL tricky part", which of course.. it is. Sometimes these gulf storms have a good bit more QPF than what the models give it credit for. I did have a look at the 12z simulated wrf radar as well as the new 9z srefs and both have pretty notable shifts west of the 6z wrf-rad and 3z sref. The 9z srefs gets some pretty decent 50-60% probs of 1"+ back to KAOO now (same for IPT). If some of the sref members follow the 12z nams somewhat westward shift, the 15z sref could look even better than that. For now though, very leery of things west of I-81. If i were to do a map currently i'd stick the 1" line slightly on or nw of the KAOO/KUNV/KIPT line. As for the I-81 corridor and east, I think CTP best stop leaning on HPC and get some headlines out to at least match their counterparts from the DC weather service.

I def agree with u on that. A strengthening low not too far off the coast should throw back some snow to central Pa. I am looking for 2-3 and hoping for a little more. We shall see. I personally think AVP will see 6-8 on this one.just my 2cents

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kerplunk

kerplunk

Posted
Posted

Pretty significant changes:

"Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service State College PA

345 PM EST Sat Dec 25 2010

Short term /Sunday through Monday/...

the main focus of this package continues to be the potentially

significant /and widespread/ heavy snow event from low pressure that

will sweep north-northeast along the East Coast and deepen quickly Sunday into

Monday in response to the nose of a potent 150 knots upper jet.

There still is up to 150 nm of spread between the tracks of the

surface low...with the 12z UKMET is the furthest east...with the 12z

NAM/GFS/gefs...and the 00z ec and 12z Gem showing pretty good

clustering /within about 50-75 nm/ to the west or northwest of the

UK met. 09z sref is the western outlier and would lead to significant

snowfall across at least the southeast half of the County Warning Area...with over 12

inches of wind-driven snow across the susq valley and points east.

I/M impressed with the strong middle level cold advection headed into

the lower miss valley...which is helping to rapidly sharpen the

upper trough and Blossom a large area of precipitation /rain and snow/

across the southeastern states into the central Appalachians. At this

point...we'll choose to steadily increase the awareness /and note

the potentially significant and widespread impact/ of this storm

over the upcoming 48 hours. We'll also keep a close eye on upgrading

the current watch to a Winter Storm Warning /via coordinate with

surrounding weather forecast offices/ for the late afternoon or evening forecast

packages...and may have to expand the watches/warnings further northwest.

The outlier...sref paints over 1 foot of snow /with 1-1.4 inches of

liq equivalent/ southeast of the portion of Interstate 81 from

Harrisburg through Schuylkill County...while noticeably lesser

amounts Stem from the NAM/Gem combos. The mean solution of the

ec/gefs and GFS would still lead to warning criteria snow across

much of the current Winter Storm Watch area. The fresh in...12z gefs

is still on the more aggressive side with its qpf/snowfall...with

the consensus 0.50/24 hour - leq line right along the susq from near

kipt to khar...and between 0.75-1.00 inch in a corridor from

Lancaster to Pottsville...NNE.

In any outcome...the complicating factor /captured by all of the

above mentioned model solutions/ will be the increasing northerly

wind later Sunday through Monday as the low deepens to our east.

Sustained winds across much of the region will be in the 20 to 30

miles per hour range with gusts up to 45 miles per hour.

This will combine with the falling snow to cause locally vary poor

visibility at times...and significant drifting. "

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

I'm going to guess 2-4" for KMDT.

probably a good call.

IF theres any good news, it has been snowing all day here and air is pretty moist, dry air shouldn't be a huge problem.

Was thinking that also. Hopefully it helps.

PHL: 12"

Lancaster: 8"

York: 6"

MDT: 4.5"

NYC: 16"

Boston: 22"

Cape Cod: never to be seen again

LOL....Would love to experience a Cape Cod blizzard one day.

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