Voyager Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 what thread is DT's map in? His Facebook page. http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/photo.php?fbid=155827797797820&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 just saw DT's map. very bullish back here in God's country but i sure do like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 just saw DT's map. very bullish back here in God's country but i sure do like it. Yea i would personally love to see this outcome myself . His map is a pretty decent stab, I would assume he is banking on a much further penetrating and expansive precipitation shield than what is being modeled. His caption for that also says that the western side is "the REAL tricky part", which of course.. it is. Sometimes these gulf storms have a good bit more QPF than what the models give it credit for. I did have a look at the 12z simulated wrf radar as well as the new 9z srefs and both have pretty notable shifts west of the 6z wrf-rad and 3z sref. The 9z srefs gets some pretty decent 50-60% probs of 1"+ back to KAOO now (same for IPT). If some of the sref members follow the 12z nams somewhat westward shift, the 15z sref could look even better than that. For now though, very leery of things west of I-81. If i were to do a map currently i'd stick the 1" line slightly on or nw of the KAOO/KUNV/KIPT line. As for the I-81 corridor and east, I think CTP best stop leaning on HPC and get some headlines out to at least match their counterparts from the DC weather service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluestring Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Watches are out for Dauphin, Schuylkill, Lebanon, Adams, York, and Lancaster Counties DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON... GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 1201 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATION...THE COUNTIES OF ADAMS...DAUPHIN...YORK...LANCASTER... LEBANON AND SCHUYLKILL. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING...INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BECOME STEADIER THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SNOW COULD FALL HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY SUNDAY...BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND AREAS OF VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. * TEMPERATURES...25 TO 30 DEGREES. * VISIBILITIES...AVERAGING ONE HALF TO ONE MILE...WITH TIMES OF ONE QUARTER OF A MILE VISIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think this is one of those storms that has a very sharp western precip gradient and could really screw some areas not far from where it's a blizzard. There's no real overrunning setup or big infusion of moisture like from an El Nino enhanced storm or anything, the snow is falling mostly from dynamic lift only. Unfortunately, I think people west of the Susquehanna are going to be disappointed as of now, and maybe even west of the Delaware if models like the Nam are right. This looks to be a very north-south oriented system and very tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 First Guess: IPT: Nothing UNV: Nothing BFD: Nothing MDT:3-5 inches Lancaster: 4-6 inches Bloomsburg:1-2 inches Wilkes Barre: 2-4 inches Gettysburg: 2 to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Anyone have 12z bufkit numbers for MDT? Also the low looks to be west of model prognosis according to the Philly regional thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 its snowing here on christmas...not very hard but its snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Point and click and county forecasts are updated. Here is Dauphin's county forecast (pretty strongly worded) Sunday Cloudy. Periods of snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Sunday night Snow. Areas of blowing snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Additional heavy snow accumulation possible. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Monday Areas of blowing snow in the morning. Snow in the morning, then becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning with visibility one quarter mile or less at times. Additional light snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Sampled around some further west counties, Bedford, Somerset, and Cambria counties all have 1-3 inches listed for Sunday and then snow Sun night and Monday morning. So it appears that they could be gearing up to eventually raise advisories for the south central counties and northeast adjacent to the watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NWS didn't list any amounts in the evening and morning portion of that forecast. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yea i would personally love to see this outcome myself . His map is a pretty decent stab, I would assume he is banking on a much further penetrating and expansive precipitation shield than what is being modeled. His caption for that also says that the western side is "the REAL tricky part", which of course.. it is. Sometimes these gulf storms have a good bit more QPF than what the models give it credit for. I did have a look at the 12z simulated wrf radar as well as the new 9z srefs and both have pretty notable shifts west of the 6z wrf-rad and 3z sref. The 9z srefs gets some pretty decent 50-60% probs of 1"+ back to KAOO now (same for IPT). If some of the sref members follow the 12z nams somewhat westward shift, the 15z sref could look even better than that. For now though, very leery of things west of I-81. If i were to do a map currently i'd stick the 1" line slightly on or nw of the KAOO/KUNV/KIPT line. As for the I-81 corridor and east, I think CTP best stop leaning on HPC and get some headlines out to at least match their counterparts from the DC weather service. I def agree with u on that. A strengthening low not too far off the coast should throw back some snow to central Pa. I am looking for 2-3 and hoping for a little more. We shall see. I personally think AVP will see 6-8 on this one.just my 2cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 can anyone post the new DT map? i cant access facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluestring Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 can anyone post the new DT map? i cant access facebook. Here you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here you go thanks bluestring. wow i hope that happens(sitting right on the 6 inch line)... but im not getting excited for anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i wonder why DT has the 6-8 finger going up through eastern pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PCNTOTNE_15z/srefloop.html i would take panel ETA5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i wonder why DT has the 6-8 finger going up through eastern pa? Looks like he may be factoring orographic - otherwise the 6-8 inch would probably extend into where you see the western 8" finger which pretty much follows the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alleghenies-16693 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 One more western jog ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pretty significant changes: "Area forecast discussion National Weather Service State College PA 345 PM EST Sat Dec 25 2010 Short term /Sunday through Monday/... the main focus of this package continues to be the potentially significant /and widespread/ heavy snow event from low pressure that will sweep north-northeast along the East Coast and deepen quickly Sunday into Monday in response to the nose of a potent 150 knots upper jet. There still is up to 150 nm of spread between the tracks of the surface low...with the 12z UKMET is the furthest east...with the 12z NAM/GFS/gefs...and the 00z ec and 12z Gem showing pretty good clustering /within about 50-75 nm/ to the west or northwest of the UK met. 09z sref is the western outlier and would lead to significant snowfall across at least the southeast half of the County Warning Area...with over 12 inches of wind-driven snow across the susq valley and points east. I/M impressed with the strong middle level cold advection headed into the lower miss valley...which is helping to rapidly sharpen the upper trough and Blossom a large area of precipitation /rain and snow/ across the southeastern states into the central Appalachians. At this point...we'll choose to steadily increase the awareness /and note the potentially significant and widespread impact/ of this storm over the upcoming 48 hours. We'll also keep a close eye on upgrading the current watch to a Winter Storm Warning /via coordinate with surrounding weather forecast offices/ for the late afternoon or evening forecast packages...and may have to expand the watches/warnings further northwest. The outlier...sref paints over 1 foot of snow /with 1-1.4 inches of liq equivalent/ southeast of the portion of Interstate 81 from Harrisburg through Schuylkill County...while noticeably lesser amounts Stem from the NAM/Gem combos. The mean solution of the ec/gefs and GFS would still lead to warning criteria snow across much of the current Winter Storm Watch area. The fresh in...12z gefs is still on the more aggressive side with its qpf/snowfall...with the consensus 0.50/24 hour - leq line right along the susq from near kipt to khar...and between 0.75-1.00 inch in a corridor from Lancaster to Pottsville...NNE. In any outcome...the complicating factor /captured by all of the above mentioned model solutions/ will be the increasing northerly wind later Sunday through Monday as the low deepens to our east. Sustained winds across much of the region will be in the 20 to 30 miles per hour range with gusts up to 45 miles per hour. This will combine with the falling snow to cause locally vary poor visibility at times...and significant drifting. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like a nasty storm east of I-81. I've been on vacation all week..... just catching up! Merry Christmas all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Meta, any final call numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Just move up to Tug Hill if you want to see snow. We have been in drought for a few years. So close yet so far. Hope everyone had a good Christmas. JST good to see you back! http://www.erh.noaa....6hr_Period1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 The 0z NAM us actually west if it's 12z counterpart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluestring Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm going to guess 2-4" for KMDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 IF theres any good news, it has been snowing all day here and air is pretty moist, dry air shouldn't be a huge problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 PHL: 12" Lancaster: 8" York: 6" MDT: 4.5" NYC: 16" Boston: 22" Cape Cod: never to be seen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm going to guess 2-4" for KMDT. probably a good call. IF theres any good news, it has been snowing all day here and air is pretty moist, dry air shouldn't be a huge problem. Was thinking that also. Hopefully it helps. PHL: 12" Lancaster: 8" York: 6" MDT: 4.5" NYC: 16" Boston: 22" Cape Cod: never to be seen again LOL....Would love to experience a Cape Cod blizzard one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 PHL: 12" Lancaster: 8" York: 6" MDT: 4.5" NYC: 16" Boston: 22" Cape Cod: never to be seen again I totally agree with ur numbers here.I think tho the cape will go to rain for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Still waiting to see if CTP flips the watches over to warnings in the eastern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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