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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I


PennMan

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On my phone and can't see the maps well. What does the GFS say for the Harrisburg area? And does it still give C PA a little light snow Christmas evening?

Sorry for the questions, just can't see on the phone!

No snow on Christmas in the Harrisburg area.

For the Sunday-Monday storm, around a half inch of precip.

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TORCH a comin guys :( I wouldn't be surprised if this area picked up 2-4 inches of rain upcoming next week. I guess we won't see any big snow chances until at least Jan 4th :thumbsdown:

GFS and NWS CTP are sort of yawn about this "torch" -

LARGE RIDGEPOTENTIALLY FORMS FOR LATE WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ANDSOUTHERLY FLOW. MAY EVEN SEE TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT THE 50S ON SAT.HOWEVER...ANY POSSIBLE WARM UP MAY BE SHORT-LIVED IF ONE STARESINTO THE CRYSTAL BALL OF THE 240-360 HR GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPANOMALIES.

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Man what a wild ride the models have been the last couple days. This euro run coming up currently should be quite interesting as the 0z GFS has now trended to a version of this storm similar to what was seen on the European a couple days ago. Potentially a X-mas miracle in the making for some? We'll see.

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I dont know man, I hear this somehow only gives MDT .25 and us .15....who knows though.

Williamsport was in the .25-.5 range per Tombo's map as was MDT I believe, at least thats what he referred to that range as i believe. That's probablly also about the extent of the coastal's precip shield since the other lighter amounts are associated with the light snow/snow showers from the first wave of this later today.

post-1507-0-13526600-1293259241.jpg

This has been a storm that has just REFUSED to be nailed down by models/NWS/HPC/everyone, so I would be careful betting on things as is. However, the consensus between the different models is at least a good bit more fitting of the <60-72hr range. Instead of the euro vs. most other models being offshore, we now have em all hitting at least the I-95 corridor. Could this shift west even further? perhaps. I still do not like the storm getting across the Fl peninsula before turning up, thus probably sharpening the east-west gradient of the snowfall. The euro is borderline obscenely sharp on QPF totals, whether or not thats right or wrong in the end. So just when you thought you could write this storm off, it comes back just enough to keep at least the eastern part of central PA interested and perhaps involved.

Oh yea.. and Merry Christmas everyone :)

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SREF MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPFS COUPLED WITH EXPECTED 12:1

OR 14:1 SLR DOES GENERATE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN THE

EAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH. HPC WINTER WEATHER

DESK GUIDANCE PUTS LESS THAN 3 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SERN

COS...TAPERING QUICKLY TO NIL AT HARRISBURG. THIS IS AGAIN WELL

BELOW WARNING ACCUMS OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES IN 12 HRS. MAIN THING TO

HANG MY HAT ON THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME FRAME IS THE WIND. THE

NNW WINDS WILL CRANK UP AS THE STORM DEEPENS RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY.

Hope he doesn't hang his hat outside. Could get covered with snow :lol::pimp:

Merry Christmas Everyone

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