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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I


PennMan

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If we were recieving a great yr with snowfall, u can bet I would be talking about that too. Your gonna get posts from what we get . I would luv to post wonderful comments about how much snow we have, unfortunately it hasnt played out that way but I will not apologize for reporting the wx obs on here.Take it anyway u want.There is a difference between whining and reporting factual , clear cut , hard evidence of actual observations and climo . So if we miss a storm that stays south or east, are we not allowed to come on here and mention that?Or is that considered complaining , when in truth it is simply statin the facts.There is a fine line I guess between the two. Plz Just think about that.Peace.

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We're toast, fellas. 12z NAM is way east and the 12z GFS only gives light snowfall to Cape Cod.

When will this board learn watching models religiously ahead of 3 days isn't worth the time invested? There isn't a model on earth that can accurately setup a storm 72+ hours out and keep it there for the duration it seems.

Serious question for the mets: Models are fine and all, but they obviously aren't very good at anything other than rough details. Is today's forecasting ability really that much better than 10 years ago (except live Doppler, etc)?

I've never understood myself why people on this board debate and pour over QPF numbers 6 days out. Yet, everyone in our little Central PA thread always seem so grounded with low expectations.

And is today's forecasting ability better than 10 years ago? Maybe a little, but I haven't noticed much change in the accuracy of the models in the 7 years or so that I've been using them. One thing that has significantly improved is the improvement of high-resolution models like the WRF/NAM, which help out a lot around here in things like lake-effect snow. But long-term forecasting? I find it just as difficult as 7 years ago...

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I've never understood myself why people on this board debate and pour over QPF numbers 6 days out. Yet, everyone in our little Central PA thread always seem so grounded with low expectations.

And is today's forecasting ability better than 10 years ago? Maybe a little, but I haven't noticed much change in the accuracy of the models in the 7 years or so that I've been using them. One thing that has significantly improved is the improvement of high-resolution models like the WRF/NAM, which help out a lot around here in things like lake-effect snow. But long-term forecasting? I find it just as difficult as 7 years ago...

Thanks for your answer, really appreciate it. I have no weather background or knowledge, I've just always been fascinated by weather but my lack of maths/formulas prevents me from really digging in and understanding.

That said, to me it seems like with all the data now available, all the models, etc., you have to be a much better forecaster today than 20 years ago to be right. You can easily screw up misinterpretations now and really fail on a forecast. 20 years ago you didn't have all this data available to make your mind piece together fallacies.

To you mets, you have such an impossible task each day interpreting all the screwed up models. You have my sympathies! haha

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Thanks for your answer, really appreciate it. I have no weather background or knowledge, I've just always been fascinated by weather but my lack of maths/formulas prevents me from really digging in and understanding.

That said, to me it seems like with all the data now available, all the models, etc., you have to be a much better forecaster today than 20 years ago to be right. You can easily screw up misinterpretations now and really fail on a forecast. 20 years ago you didn't have all this data available to make your mind piece together fallacies.

To you mets, you have such an impossible task each day interpreting all the screwed up models. You have my sympathies! haha

This is an excellent point. Despite incredible advancement in technology and the tools at their disposal, the past few days illustrate how forecasting is much more than reading models and basing forecasts off of it. Sound reasoning as to why the models might be saying what they are, plus human interpretation of the data and why it might do this or that is much more advanced and beyond the capabilities of so many on here, including myself. That is one reason why I'm leary of model interpretations by those who aren't red taggers...what makes them qualified to do so?

I've heard the joke many times about meteorologists..."all they have to do is look outside and get paid for saying what's happening." The reality is that it is an extremely technical, complicated science that will always be evolving. All of us armchair buffs can say just about anything about the weather and get away with it...for those who have made it a profession, many thanks are in order for doing as well as you do with what you have. It is much appreciated.

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It's come to this... having to talk about high winds because that's all we really have to go with in Harrisburg. Oh, but it's going to be long, warm winter! :axe:

Complaining and axe-smilies are not going to get you very far here. Add to the discussion or don't post.

Moving on...

I'm interested to see just how far the Euro shifts this afternoon, if the earlier models are any indication, could be pretty dramatic.

I was surprised by the wind here this morning, gusting upwards of 30mph quite frequently....makes 34° and sun feel quite a bit colder. One upside of this pattern is the great ice skating conditions. Everything froze over smoothly and there was no precipitation to ruin the ice. I've been out pretty much every day since Sunday, and should get out tomorrow and Christmas Day as well.

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12z Euro precip all off the coast as it moves north, hits Boston a little and Cape Cod gets a pretty good slug. Nada for pretty much the entire coast north of the Carolinas to Mass.

Funny though, this run gives C PA and the Ohio Valley a swath of light snow. Can't tell exactly how much, it's light, but maybe the storm can go so far east C PA gets some of the western overrunning (if that's the proper word for that type of precip) snows for an inch or two.

That'd be quite funny. :)

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Complaining and axe-smilies are not going to get you very far here. Add to the discussion or don't post.

Moving on...

I'm interested to see just how far the Euro shifts this afternoon, if the earlier models are any indication, could be pretty dramatic.

I was surprised by the wind here this morning, gusting upwards of 30mph quite frequently....makes 34° and sun feel quite a bit colder. One upside of this pattern is the great ice skating conditions. Everything froze over smoothly and there was no precipitation to ruin the ice. I've been out pretty much every day since Sunday, and should get out tomorrow and Christmas Day as well.

well thanks by golly.

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Just trying to keep this thread strictly obs/wx discussion, no complaining. There's a perfectly good thread for that in the regional subforum.

Agreed. Let's not get this thread to divulge into useless banter like a few other forums. We are get along which is rare enough, let's not throw stones at anyone and add meaningful discussion that makes some sort of point.

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Agreed. Let's not get this thread to divulge into useless banter like a few other forums. We are get along which is rare enough, let's not throw stones at anyone and add meaningful discussion that makes some sort of point.

Your relations travel plans should not be interupted now bro...when do they fly in?

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Ha, no kidding! My parents are sad though they won't see snow, being from Texas it's rare for them (except last year they ended up with 14"). They fly in Christmas afternoon, are here until New Years Eve. They haven't visited us here in 3 years, looking forward to showing them around now we know the area so much better.

If I don't talk to you guys before, hope everyone has a Merry Christmas!

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Ha, no kidding! My parents are sad though they won't see snow, being from Texas it's rare for them (except last year they ended up with 14"). They fly in Christmas afternoon, are here until New Years Eve. They haven't visited us here in 3 years, looking forward to showing them around now we know the area so much better.

If I don't talk to you guys before, hope everyone has a Merry Christmas!

Enjoy the time with your folks and Merry Christmas to you as well!

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Your relations travel plans should not be interupted now bro...when do they fly in?

Yeah the total lack of a storm should keep things clear travel-wise. I'm headed to the Caribbean on Monday for a family vacation...unfortunately no internet access that I know of, so I won't be able to post any warm obs. :sun:

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Yeah the total lack of a storm should keep things clear travel-wise. I'm headed to the Caribbean on Monday for a family vacation...unfortunately no internet access that I know of, so I won't be able to post any warm obs. :sun:

we will be expecting photos upon your return though. have a good trip!

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