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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

PennMan

By PennMan,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

id be shocked if it occluded that far south THAT strong, but the blocking can do anything it seems the past couple years.

the models trended towards a more neg NAO today, we will have to see how that trends, as it was more on the rise previously until today /00z i beleive.

the euro ensembles take it to about 39.5 / 71W before scooting ENE .....map it in, and you can see the correction vector needed. its not huge at T+132h.....but before even thinking about that, i suppose the other models need to get on board first with the euro, which could just be an outlier.

Hmm interesting, the big thing for this particular region is how close does that low stay to the coast prior to reaching that point and how far does the ensembles get the precip inland. Gonna take a gander at HPC since is prolly updated by now.

Sidenote: Hank's got a new map.. and we're barely involved, so I guess you guys can take that any way you want haha.

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PennMan

PennMan

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You guys get a little over 1.00 at MDT.

Lock it in.....Martin from NWS State College just posted this:

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER BEFORE SUNDAY...IF THEN. MODELS HAVE A DEEP LOW JUST TO THE EAST...BUT OTHERTHAN WIND...NOT SEEING MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...AS FLOW WILL BE LIKELY TOO NORTHERLY FOR MUCH OFF THE LAKES...AND MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH QPF (SNOW) WITH THE LOW ACROSSCENTRAL PA.

:lol:

Nice. I love me some Martin downplaying. :lol:

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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With a track similar to the 12z ECMWF, a miller A in that location is certain to bring a good deal of QPF at least into east-central Pennsylvania. Don't worry about QPF at this point...

Pretty much agree on both points, I did mention back on #525 that typically a 976mb low sitting practically on norfolk would generally be something central PA could take to the bank snowwise. The issue of course is the fact that the storm occludes around that point and begins to wash ene thus relagating any good snow east of I-81 and south of about I-84 in PA. Last nights euro run made it to near the mouth of the Delaware Bay before occluding, thus allowing the precip to keep punching north/northwestward. Another thing that makes this difficult is the track it takes. the Euro bomb takes the low through the Florida peninsula and then takes it up to norfolk steeply. A gulf bomb that moved through say GA and SC (ala 93) enroute to that same general position would likely bring a flatter oriented shield of precip into at least southern PA more easily. Fortunately, this storm still resides in about the D4-5 timeframe and theres still not much of any consensus between the gfs/ggem and euro outcomes.

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PSU8315

PSU8315

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0z NAM nudges closer to the Euro again. Let's see what crazy stories the 0z GFS brings us tonight.

I didn't think the 0z NAM was all that great -- the trough was still positively tilted at 84 hours, which would keep it a good bit off of the coast. However, looking back at the 18z run, it definitely was an improvement from that.

0z GFS is coming in now...

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PSU8315

PSU8315

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But past 48 the NAM is bunk isn't it? Up to 48, it was lined up pretty nicely then went a bit nuts when it reached its threshold.

Can't disagree with that. This is the same model that just the other day was showing Boston getting 18" of snow just from wrap-around on the big North Atlantic storm, and some of that was pre-48 hours.

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PSU8315

PSU8315

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PSU...don't you think the GFS has had pretty good run to run consistency with ots?? People keep discrediting these other models, but really they have kept the same ideas the last 3-4 runs. I hope no 1-95ers are heart-set with this thing, only 1 model shows any significant impacting storm.

It has been consistent with the OTS solution since the models went to more of a coastal storm idea. GFS (along with the Euro and a few others) had the southern half of the state in the hit zone when this was just forecast to cut across the country and be more of an overrunning storm. Then the models started going towards a more pronounced southern branch feature, which slowed the whole system down. That's when the split became the Euro vs. everyone else.

Last Friday night's 00z GFS run valid Christmas Eve night. Shows the storm cutting from west to east. That's why I initially had a lot of hope for this storm -- we tend to do pretty well with these overrunning events in Central PA.

f174.gif

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Santa Clause

Santa Clause

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It has been consistent with the OTS solution since the models went to more of a coastal storm idea. GFS (along with the Euro and a few others) had the southern half of the state in the hit zone when this was just forecast to cut across the country and be more of an overrunning storm. Then the models started going towards a more pronounced southern branch feature, which slowed the whole system down. That's when the split became the Euro vs. everyone else.

Last Friday night's 00z GFS run valid Christmas Eve night. Shows the storm cutting from west to east. That's why I initially had a lot of hope for this storm -- we tend to do pretty well with these overrunning events in Central PA.

f174.gif

Agreed, I was hoping for the bowling ball event!! Coastals are overrated, and rarely work out in this neck of the woods!

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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So my dear south central PA folks... looks like this weekend is most likely a miss so where do we go from here? Lots of the Pros are saying that winter goes on a vacation for awhile starting in the new year. Thoughts? By the way, Happy Holidays to all of yinz!

Same to you as well. As I said 2 days ago, I'm okay if we miss out after being heeped upon so generously last year. Still, at least here at my locale, I'm not sure that this will be a miss just yet. Odds seem to favor that, but it also seems that this is such a delicate situation that nothing in the end result would really surprise me. The GFS continues to shift west (at least the ensembles do) and I think that some last minute changes (suprises) could/will occur. If I was a betting man, I'd say the odds of anything signicant here have dwindled, but this is not over... just yet.

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windberwx

windberwx

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Same to you as well. As I said 2 days ago, I'm okay if we miss out after being heeped upon so generously last year. Still, at least here at my locale, I'm not sure that this will be a miss just yet. Odds seem to favor that, but it also seems that this is such a delicate situation that nothing in the end result would really surprise me. The GFS continues to shift west (at least the ensembles do) and I think that some last minute changes (suprises) could/will occur. If I was a betting man, I'd say the odds of anything signicant here have dwindled, but this is not over... just yet.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of this winter plays out. I've called this area home for almost 20 years and I'm always still amazed at how hard it is to get good snow here (barring last February of course) :thumbsup:

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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It will be interesting to see how the rest of this winter plays out. I've called this area home for almost 20 years and I'm always still amazed at how hard it is to get good snow here (barring last February of course) :thumbsup:

I think I'm more certain the rest of the winter will be a dud then I am that this storm is a whiff. Both are likely, but I'm keeping an eye on this one until at least noon tomorrow.

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afvet89

afvet89

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Even though i assumed this would go wide right, I'm still mad! :) I'm kinda hoping MDT now ends the year with no more snow, just to be a crazy bookend to last year's 75" or whatever it was. I have .15" so far, living the good life hahaha

Im still amazed at how MDT got 75 inches last yr, then u drive 90 miles north up rt15 to an area that avgs more snow seasonally and we had 35 last yr. Thats a 40 inch different, that in itself is more snowfall than the avg for a whole season.

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canderson

canderson

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We're toast, fellas. 12z NAM is way east and the 12z GFS only gives light snowfall to Cape Cod.

When will this board learn watching models religiously ahead of 3 days isn't worth the time invested? There isn't a model on earth that can accurately setup a storm 72+ hours out and keep it there for the duration it seems.

Serious question for the mets: Models are fine and all, but they obviously aren't very good at anything other than rough details. Is today's forecasting ability really that much better than 10 years ago (except live Doppler, etc)?

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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Im still amazed at how MDT got 75 inches last yr, then u drive 90 miles north up rt15 to an area that avgs more snow seasonally and we had 35 last yr. Thats a 40 inch different, that in itself is more snowfall than the avg for a whole season.

Please, enough already. Average snowfall is calculated LONG TERM, not over a a few years or even a decade. Yeah, I got a ton more snow than you did last year, but you also did better than some areas in New England which in an AVERAGE year do much better than you.

I remember as a kid there were several winters where I would sit in my house staring at Cirrus clouds to my south as many a storm crushed VA and the Carolinas with big snows. But I also recall storms in '83, '93, '96, '03 in which we did much better than they did. Climo suggests over the long haul I will get more snow than Richmond, you will get more than me, and Worcester, MA will get more than you. But that happens ove a long time.

I know, understand, and appreciate your frustration. I love snow, and it hurts when we miss out. But to complain about it in just about every post now for the past 2 years is wearing on all of us...

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windberwx

windberwx

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One thing, Christmas weekend will be good weather-wise. Chilly, but partly cloudy and probably not too windy. Last night and this morning the wind's really been whipping here in Harrisburg - didn't expect that.

It's come to this... having to talk about high winds because that's all we really have to go with in Harrisburg. Oh, but it's going to be long, warm winter! :axe:

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afvet89

afvet89

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Please, enough already. Average snowfall is calculated LONG TERM, not over a a few years or even a decade. Yeah, I got a ton more snow than you did last year, but you also did better than some areas in New England which in an AVERAGE year do much better than you.

I remember as a kid there were several winters where I would sit in my house staring at Cirrus clouds to my south as many a storm crushed VA and the Carolinas with big snows. But I also recall storms in '83, '93, '96, '03 in which we did much better than they did. Climo suggests over the long haul I will get more snow than Richmond, you will get more than me, and Worcester, MA will get more than you. But that happens ove a long time.

I know, understand, and appreciate your frustration. I love snow, and it hurts when we miss out. But to complain about it in just about every post now for the past 2 years is wearing on all of us...

Dude, relax, I just said I find it amazing is all. I state facts .It really is an amazing wx situation. Dont take it as a slam against u.Im glad u got what u got. Everything I have said is substanciated. I wasnt slamming u , or saying anything negative about u. I simply state the wx for my region.Dont take it personal.It is all true my friend.

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