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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

PennMan

By PennMan,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Santa Clause

Santa Clause

Posted
Posted

Well, we did well last year, we broke our monthly snow record in Feb, and had a close to two foot storm.

From what I read you guys got absolutely screwed last year.

Yeah man, we received like 4.5 to 6 inchers when MDT, UNV and others got hit pretty hard. I can't really complain though, we live in a bad spot for snow.

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Paweatherguy1

Paweatherguy1

Posted
Posted

Yeah man, we received like 4.5 to 6 inchers when MDT, UNV and others got hit pretty hard. I can't really complain though, we live in a bad spot for snow.

Haha....its funny you say that. Up until last year, I said that about Pittsburgh until last year. Our snow totals are always greatly inflated by a bunch of 2-4 clipper events and LES. It is very hard to get a truely awesome synoptic snow here. The coastals, unless they are March 93 like, are too far east, and the OV lows that jump to the coast usually die out before they get to us, or plow right over top of us and change us over to slop. We have to get really lucky and have the OV low transfer at just the right time, and to the right location to keep us snow, and then to have the secondary take over and still be in the comma head.....

That is what happened Feb 5-6 last year.

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afvet89

afvet89

Posted
Posted

Also something of note, this looks to be a pattern-changing storm. Not long after the storm departs, we seem to be heading into the warmest temps we've seen since late November by the New Year and beyond.

Just my quick glance at the pattern does show a warm up after the storm but toward the day 9 and 10, it looks like a trough tries to reestablish itself as a high builds out west.

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JSTWX

JSTWX

Posted
Posted

Pattern breaks down a bit days 7-9, then looks to start reloading at 240.

I wouldn't worry about the Euro's qpf too much just yet, those of you west of Route 219. Wait until Saturday night. Lots of time!

Heck, it could still trend far enough east so nobody gets any snow west of I-95!

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Santa Clause

Santa Clause

Posted
Posted

Haha....its funny you say that. Up until last year, I said that about Pittsburgh until last year. Our snow totals are always greatly inflated by a bunch of 2-4 clipper events and LES. It is very hard to get a truely awesome synoptic snow here. The coastals, unless they are March 93 like, are too far east, and the OV lows that jump to the coast usually die out before they get to us, or plow right over top of us and change us over to slop. We have to get really lucky and have the OV low transfer at just the right time, and to the right location to keep us snow, and then to have the secondary take over and still be in the comma head.....

That is what happened Feb 5-6 last year.

Same here, very similar. Clippers do alright, barely any LES here. We need that rare RIC TO NYC storm track to do well. Hey, it makes it that much more special when it happens.

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Santa Clause

Santa Clause

Posted
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Pattern breaks down a bit days 7-9, then looks to start reloading at 240.

I wouldn't worry about the Euro's qpf too much just yet, those of you west of Route 219. Wait until Saturday night. Lots of time!

Heck, it could still trend far enough east so nobody gets any snow west of I-95!

Agreed 100% As of right now the Euro has no model support.....and it barely hits the area.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

WOW...no kidding. Track looks pretty good, must be occlusion?

Yea I believe the very early occlusion probably has a pretty big hand in it...because a 976mb low on top of Norfolk is typically money in the bank for all of central PA, and if that thing continued chugging up the coast in that fashion you can bet W-port wouldn't have to worry about the shaft. Being only 24 I can't say i ever remember seeing a storm occluding before it even gets to the Delmarva.. though i'm sure there's instances. A more west to east gradient is probably how its going to go because of how the storm tracks. It makes a very hard turn to get from the Florida peninsula to where its at hour 120 on Norfolk.

It's a really fickle situation for CPA (esp JST, UNV, IPT, and points nw). The euro has been the only thing that has gotten anything back our way the last couple days since models went to the miller-A type solution. The Euro also remains the only one to really cut if off so far sw. In the meantime the other models remain too far east, although the GFS shift today is a big sign that it is heading toward the Euro solution. I think at some point the Euro is going to give to some degree back the other way and how much it does will probably go a great deal in determining ultimately what happens (along with consensus vs the other models of course). Considering the blocking the low occluding and retreating east in the Euro fashion may well be the right call.. but it may occur in a somewhat more "typical" area like off the Jersey shore, which might help us locally. But we still got awhile to go yet. It's def not a setup i'd pick for a good coastal storm impact in central PA, but I still think west of I-81 has a shot.

On a related note, have I mentioned how frustrating is has been trying to predict something around here so far this winter? :lol:

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PSU8315

PSU8315

Posted
Posted

Yea I believe the very early occlusion probably has a pretty big hand in it...because a 976mb low on top of Norfolk is typically money in the bank for all of central PA, and if that thing continued chugging up the coast in that fashion you can bet W-port wouldn't have to worry about the shaft. Being only 24 I can't say i ever remember seeing a storm occluding before it even gets to the Delmarva.. though i'm sure there's instances. A more west to east gradient is probably how its going to go because of how the storm tracks. It makes a very hard turn to get from the Florida peninsula to where its at hour 120 on Norfolk.

It's a really fickle situation for CPA (esp JST, UNV, IPT, and points nw). The euro has been the only thing that has gotten anything back our way the last couple days since models went to the miller-A type solution. The Euro also remains the only one to really cut if off so far sw. In the meantime the other models remain too far east, although the GFS shift today is a big sign that it is heading toward the Euro solution. I think at some point the Euro is going to give to some degree back the other way and how much it does will probably go a great deal in determining ultimately what happens (along with consensus vs the other models of course). Considering the blocking the low occluding and retreating east in the Euro fashion may well be the right call.. but it may occur in a somewhat more "typical" area like off the Jersey shore, which might help us locally. But we still got awhile to go yet. It's def not a setup i'd pick for a good coastal storm impact in central PA, but I still think west of I-81 has a shot.

On a related note, have I mentioned how frustrating is has been trying to predict something around here so far this winter? :lol:

Funny you say that, because I thought the same thing last winter. I've forecasted for several winters in PA, but I could never remember such dramatic model shifts inside 48 hours than we had last winter. Especially for the February 5-6 storm...

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Funny you say that, because I thought the same thing last winter. I've forecasted for several winters in PA, but I could never remember such dramatic model shifts inside 48 hours than we had last winter. Especially for the February 5-6 storm...

I remember. That was a crazy month. All of us just about had double normal snow. I'd take it again.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Hm, Euro precip maps look higher than .5 for MDT. I see 1.25-1.5". Am I missing a point here? (Probably am!).

You guys get a little over 1.00 at MDT.

Lock it in.....Martin from NWS State College just posted this:

NOT REALLY SEEING ANY WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER BEFORE SUNDAY...IF THEN. MODELS HAVE A DEEP LOW JUST TO THE EAST...BUT OTHERTHAN WIND...NOT SEEING MUCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...AS FLOW WILL BE LIKELY TOO NORTHERLY FOR MUCH OFF THE LAKES...AND MODELS DON`T SHOW MUCH QPF (SNOW) WITH THE LOW ACROSSCENTRAL PA.

laugh.gif

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

Yea I believe the very early occlusion probably has a pretty big hand in it...because a 976mb low on top of Norfolk is typically money in the bank for all of central PA, and if that thing continued chugging up the coast in that fashion you can bet W-port wouldn't have to worry about the shaft. Being only 24 I can't say i ever remember seeing a storm occluding before it even gets to the Delmarva.. though i'm sure there's instances. A more west to east gradient is probably how its going to go because of how the storm tracks. It makes a very hard turn to get from the Florida peninsula to where its at hour 120 on Norfolk.

It's a really fickle situation for CPA (esp JST, UNV, IPT, and points nw). The euro has been the only thing that has gotten anything back our way the last couple days since models went to the miller-A type solution. The Euro also remains the only one to really cut if off so far sw. In the meantime the other models remain too far east, although the GFS shift today is a big sign that it is heading toward the Euro solution. I think at some point the Euro is going to give to some degree back the other way and how much it does will probably go a great deal in determining ultimately what happens (along with consensus vs the other models of course). Considering the blocking the low occluding and retreating east in the Euro fashion may well be the right call.. but it may occur in a somewhat more "typical" area like off the Jersey shore, which might help us locally. But we still got awhile to go yet. It's def not a setup i'd pick for a good coastal storm impact in central PA, but I still think west of I-81 has a shot.

On a related note, have I mentioned how frustrating is has been trying to predict something around here so far this winter? :lol:

id be shocked if it occluded that far south THAT strong, but the blocking can do anything it seems the past couple years.

the models trended towards a more neg NAO today, we will have to see how that trends, as it was more on the rise previously until today /00z i beleive.

the euro ensembles take it to about 39.5 / 71W before scooting ENE .....map it in, and you can see the correction vector needed. its not huge at T+132h.....but before even thinking about that, i suppose the other models need to get on board first with the euro, which could just be an outlier.

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