Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

[PSU8315]

And so the plot thickens... 0z Euro comes in fairly similar to the 12z, although it appears to stall. QPF isn't quite as high back here, but still a healthy, plowable storm, especially with the high ratios that we would see. QPF is around 0.8" from Altoona to Harrisburg, and then goes down to 0.25"-0.5" closer to I-80.

No matter what happens, should be a fun 24-48 hours to track this and see what the models do...

[MAG5035]

The Euro has at the least set a new bar in terms of the model consensus. We now have everything from the wide right GFS to a European run that is so far southwest it occludes and stalls a bomb of a low keeping the worst impacts under the mason-dixon. Gotta love it.

[2001kx]

'96 was always the one I remember because we lived near Philly at the time. We got 28" or so out of that. For a while, I thought I would never see anything like it -- then February 5-6, 2010 happened with the two feet of snow.

You'll get yours up north...eventually........

if i remember correctly we got 14 inches from the 96 storm.

it poured snow for a few hours (never seen it pile up that fast)

but i could be thinking of another storm?? those were my party years so my memory could be off.

but i do remember that winter almost every week we would have a storm forecast of 1-2 ft or 8-16 inches.

we didnt get them all but there was alot of action that winter.

[PSU8315]

The Euro has at the least set a new bar in terms of the model consensus. We now have everything from the wide right GFS to a European run that is so far southwest it occludes and stalls a bomb of a low keeping the worst impacts under the mason-dixon. Gotta love it.

Yeah, watching all of the BWI posters wet themselves on the 0z model thread has been quite entertaining...

[2001kx]

The Euro has at the least set a new bar in terms of the model consensus. We now have everything from the wide right GFS to a European run that is so far southwest it occludes and stalls a bomb of a low keeping the worst impacts under the mason-dixon. Gotta love it.

by the way they were talking on the radio show ...west / central , Pa doesnt have much of a shot at this being the big one for us.

saying that the track has a better shot of being a fish storm than an inland runner.

i would love to see this thing track right up over Philly or over NJ.

[PSU8315]

by the way they were talking on the radio show ...west / central , Pa doesnt have much of a shot at this being the big one for us.

saying that the track has a better shot of being a fish storm than an inland runner.

i would love to see this thing track right up over Philly or over NJ.

Definitely agree with this, but it doesn't mean we can't try to get in on at least some of the fun...

[2001kx]

Definitely agree with this, but it doesn't mean we can't try to get in on at least some of the fun...

i agree..you take what you can get.

if it does happen as the euro shows it...it will be fun to watch it all unfold.

[MAG5035]

by the way they were talking on the radio show ...west / central , Pa doesnt have much of a shot at this being the big one for us.

saying that the track has a better shot of being a fish storm than an inland runner.

i would love to see this thing track right up over Philly or over NJ.

That 12z Euro certainly begged to differ (as does the new run somewhat), factoring in what would likely be good ratios I thought the central 3rd of PA had some of the highest impact snowwise from a storm that was just offshore. We (central PA, at least) don't necessarily need a storm to come up slightly inland to be a decent hitter when a storm is portrayed to be that strong and not too far offshore.

But for now, we still need consensus. Basically the new Euro was the big exclamation point in terms of the 0z suite still isn't anywhere close to knowing wtf this storm is going to do. But the GGEM, Euro, UKMET and to a lesser extent the GFS all make major storms somewhere. As Brian said, should be a fun 24-48 hours of tracking this.

[PSU8315]

That 12z Euro certainly begged to differ (as does the new run somewhat), factoring in what would likely be good ratios I thought the central 3rd of PA had some of the highest impact snowwise from a storm that was just offshore. We (central PA, at least) don't necessarily need a storm to come up slightly inland to be a decent hitter when a storm is portrayed to be that strong and not too far offshore.

But for now, we still need consensus. Basically the new Euro was the big exclamation point in terms of the 0z suite still isn't anywhere close to knowing wtf this storm is going to do. But the GGEM, Euro, UKMET and to a lesser extent the GFS all make major storms somewhere. As Brian said, should be a fun 24-48 hours of tracking this,

Ratios would be the wild card for us in that setup. Euro has surface numbers in the mid/upper teens here on Monday while it's snowing.

[2001kx]

That 12z Euro certainly begged to differ (as does the new run somewhat), factoring in what would likely be good ratios I thought the central 3rd of PA had some of the highest impact snowwise from a storm that was just offshore. We (central PA, at least) don't necessarily need a storm to come up slightly inland to be a decent hitter when a storm is portrayed to be that strong and not too far offshore.

But for now, we still need consensus. Basically the new Euro was the big exclamation point in terms of the 0z suite still isn't anywhere close to knowing wtf this storm is going to do. But the GGEM, Euro, UKMET and to a lesser extent the GFS all make major storms somewhere. As Brian said, should be a fun 24-48 hours of tracking this.

it will be interesting to see what the models come up with tomorrow.

[MAG5035]

Ratios would be the wild card for us in that setup. Euro has surface numbers in the mid/upper teens here on Monday while it's snowing.

Definitely, heck it might even be too cold back here for making the enhanced ratios.

[JamieOber]

That 12z Euro certainly begged to differ (as does the new run somewhat), factoring in what would likely be good ratios I thought the central 3rd of PA had some of the highest impact snowwise from a storm that was just offshore. We (central PA, at least) don't necessarily need a storm to come up slightly inland to be a decent hitter when a storm is portrayed to be that strong and not too far offshore.

But for now, we still need consensus. Basically the new Euro was the big exclamation point in terms of the 0z suite still isn't anywhere close to knowing wtf this storm is going to do. But the GGEM, Euro, UKMET and to a lesser extent the GFS all make major storms somewhere. As Brian said, should be a fun 24-48 hours of tracking this.

There's a bit of a myth about UNV and east coast storms. We don't miss most of them.

Examples off the top of my head:

96 blizzard

12/5/02

12/5/03

PDII

2/9-10/2010

We also got some snow from the other blizzards last year, not a total miss.

[JamieOber]

Ratios would be the wild card for us in that setup. Euro has surface numbers in the mid/upper teens here on Monday while it's snowing.

Like many of the big storms. Interesting.

[sauss06]

There's a bit of a myth about UNV and east coast storms. We don't miss most of them.

Examples off the top of my head:

96 blizzard

12/5/02

12/5/03

PDII

2/9-10/2010

We also got some snow from the other blizzards last year, not a total miss.

What about 12-25-02?

[canderson]

12z GFS jumps to the Euro. Still too far east for us to get any snow (we are .00 precip on the maps I believe) but it majorly jumped tot he Euro.

That's a good thing imo - hope it continues and the Euro doesn't adjust eastward to meet the GFS. What's funny though is this storm that was initially pegged to start Christmas Eve looks like it won't get going until Dec. 27 now haha

[PSU8315]

12z GFS jumps to the Euro. Still too far east for us to get any snow (we are .00 precip on the maps I believe) but it majorly jumped tot he Euro.

That's a good thing imo - hope it continues and the Euro doesn't adjust eastward to meet the GFS. What's funny though is this storm that was initially pegged to start Christmas Eve looks like it won't get going until Dec. 27 now haha

Amazing difference. Looking at Sunday night, the 12z GFS is 20mb stronger and about 200 miles northwest of its 06z position.

12z Euro is coming in now...

[JamieOber]

What about 12-25-02?

True....although wasn't that more of an inland runner? Can't recall now.

[PSU8315]

Bombs away again on the 12z Euro. Unlike the 00z, which had a sharp south to north gradient, this time it's the more classic west to east gradient. Amounts are much lower by Altoona and State College, but the Harrisburg/Lancaster areas get a big hit.

[Itstrainingtime]

Bombs away again on the 12z Euro. Unlike the 00z, which had a sharp south to north gradient, this time it's the more classic west to east gradient. Amounts are much lower by Altoona and State College, but the Harrisburg/Lancaster areas get a big hit.

I saw that too...why? Once the storm reaches a Latitude of southern Delaware, it looks like it moves ENE from there. Why would the precip shield be oriented east-west instead of north-south with that track?

[JamieOber]

Bombs away again on the 12z Euro. Unlike the 00z, which had a sharp south to north gradient, this time it's the more classic west to east gradient. Amounts are much lower by Altoona and State College, but the Harrisburg/Lancaster areas get a big hit.

Any idea on numbers? It would be helpful, since this is obviously an I-95 focused board.

[PSU8315]

I saw that too...why? Once the storm reaches a Latitude of southern Delaware, it looks like it moves ENE from there. Why would the precip shield be oriented east-west instead of north-south with that track?

From the looks of the humidity maps on the Euro, it looks like areas northwest of I-81 are fighting with dry air throughout the storm. That is probably what is causing the orientation of the cutoff.

[PSU8315]

Also something of note, this looks to be a pattern-changing storm. Not long after the storm departs, we seem to be heading into the warmest temps we've seen since late November by the New Year and beyond.

[Santa Clause]

LOL....reminding me of last year....

[Itstrainingtime]

Also something of note, this looks to be a pattern-changing storm. Not long after the storm departs, we seem to be heading into the warmest temps we've seen since late November by the New Year and beyond.

Yep, some on here know who Eric Horst is. ( a very respected met from Millersville) He mentioned in his blog yesterday that the clock is ticking for snow lovers. Once this storm is over, regardless of it's effects locally, winter is going on vacation in our neck of the woods.

[Paweatherguy1]

Yeah, I am having trouble gathering ANY info for anyone west of the cities. I am assuming that there is a very sharp cut off, but I know the EURO had been showing .5 QPF all the way back to KPIT....I wonder if that is still the case???

[Organizing Low]

Yeah, I am having trouble gathering ANY info for anyone west of the cities. I am assuming that there is a very sharp cut off, but I know the EURO had been showing .5 QPF all the way back to KPIT....I wonder if that is still the case???

zero

[Santa Clause]

Yeah, I am having trouble gathering ANY info for anyone west of the cities. I am assuming that there is a very sharp cut off, but I know the EURO had been showing .5 QPF all the way back to KPIT....I wonder if that is still the case???

Nah dude, from what I gather, .35 to .5 for Altoona south and east. Williamsport to PIT sound high and dry.

[JSTWX]

QPF totals with this run:

.25 JST-AOO-UNV-Wilkes Barre

.50 Chambersburg-MDT-Hazelton

things really ramp up east of there

[Santa Clause]

QPF totals with this run:

.25 JST-AOO-UNV-Wilkes Barre

.50 Chambersburg-MDT-Hazelton

things really ramp up east of there

WOW...no kidding. Track looks pretty good, must be occlusion?

[Paweatherguy1]

zero

Awesome

Going to be depressing to watch the blizzard of 93 redux miss us by maybe 200 miles....