Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

[canderson]

Any thoughts on how this'll play out - ie more east or coming toward the coast more? Very early I know, and so much will change, but this pattern looks much more promising than last week's miss.

Unfortunately looks like this system will miss the northern PA folks, right?

[sauss06]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

817 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

PAZ033>036-051>053-056>059-063>066-221330-

SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-

PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-

817 AM EST TUE DEC 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND.

THIS STORM COULD MAKE MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND

IN THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT AND POCONOS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY

HIGH WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE STORM AND THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

[hckyplayer8]

I'm not exactly sure how you can honestly put out a snow map from this far out when there isn't even close to a consensus. Top amounts seem rather low - barring this going out to see, I expect 6"+ amounts somewhere in the Northeast from this system.

I'm just glad we're not on the bulls-eye on this map - that's usually the kiss of death...

I try not bashing people but this is the same guy last year that painted a 500 mile x 500 mile red swath from the Northern Plains to Pittsburgh and labeled it Blizzard potential.

[canderson]

12z GFS out to sea.

[afvet89]

I know last year you guys were really, really screwed. But I thought you had a good year prior and a few before then? I can be totally wrong about that! You and SNE both deserve storms, definitely.

Thanks! Actually we havent had a good season in the 12 yrs I have been living here.Never can get up to our normal snowfall except in 02. And that yr I wasnt here.lol.Maybe Im a jinx,lol. Anyway,thanks for the kind words. Hopefully we all can get some snow this weekend.

[canderson]

And the 12z Euro says hello C PA, and welcome to a storm that would come close to that famous 1993 I've heard/read so much about.

It has a prolonged blizzard basically from the outer banks to SNE starting Sunday afternoon going into Monday late. I don't buy this at all, but the UKIE and GGEM (I believe) are pretty close to the Euro and the NAM wasn't far from this solution.

[sauss06]

Holy Sh**, i'm not so sure my heart can take this. What a wild ride this week HUH?

1.15" i read for MDT, what will that be like 13-18"

[canderson]

Someone (maybe earthlight) said we'd (I mean inland PA) would have insanely high ratios close to 20:1-30:1 due to the locked in cold we have.

[Itstrainingtime]

I can't take this. At 45, I'm worried I'll have a stroke before this thing even gets here. I just wish it wasn't always 5-6 days away, it's been like that now for the past 2 days.

There seems to be a pretty strong signal that something big might happen somewhere, but as the models are showing, who knows just where yet? By Friday, we might be congratulating Detroit on this one.

[PennMan]

Someone (maybe earthlight) said we'd (I mean inland PA) would have insanely high ratios close to 20:1-30:1 due to the locked in cold we have.

Eh, I never bet on anything greater than 14-18:1 really...takes a lot to get us into that realm as it is. I don't know where the -8C isotherm sets up, but that's often an area that can cash in on good ratios. The whole solution is pretty ridiculous. I am increasingly confident we see at least some snow though. The timing is awful for me personally...we have a trip to Grand Cayman planned, with an early flight out of PHL on Monday 12/27....

[canderson]

I wish you well on your flight, I feel your pain. :/ -8c looks a very tad west of 95. Euro has MDT at 1.15".

Again, I'm not buying this run one bit. I think we'll get some snow here in Harrisburg but will be elated if it's over 2".

[afvet89]

Eh, I never bet on anything greater than 14-18:1 really...takes a lot to get us into that realm as it is. I don't know where the -8C isotherm sets up, but that's often an area that can cash in on good ratios. The whole solution is pretty ridiculous. I am increasingly confident we see at least some snow though. The timing is awful for me personally...we have a trip to Grand Cayman planned, with an early flight out of PHL on Monday 12/27....

Why is it ridiculous?Because its so extreme?Just curious is all.

[sauss06]

I just remembered, i will be with out a computer from 10am til 430 pm tomorrow. What the heck, i'll be going through withdraw

[PennMan]

Why is it ridiculous?Because its so extreme?Just curious is all.

Yeah...it's just so extreme. Do I think there could be a strong low coming up the coast, sure....will it be sub 970mb off ACY....I doubt it.

[Storm Clouds]

OMG I would do anything for the Euro to come true!

[MAG5035]

HPC has a pretty good breakdown of things this afternoon in its forecast discussion which can be read HERE. They basically want to see other models trend towards the new 12z Euro before committing to it's slower solution and are going heavy on a consensus of 0z/12z euro, 12z GGEM, and 0z euro mean. All of that leads to something near the 0z Euro track...def a very reasonable call at this point. I haven't seen the hard numbers for myself yet (still waiting), but the 12z Euro is probably the first run that cracks folks deep into central PA since going toward this gulf low- miller A type solution.

I'm def not ready to bite on significant snow for the JST/AOO/UNV corridor yet but my confidence is increasing on at least the southeastern 2/3s of CPA seeing some kind of snowfall. I think folks in the I-81 corridor are in a pretty good place attm. Last nights Euro got those guys pretty good with a general .5-.7". Ratios are going to be a factor in this storm.. it is looking to be a very cold storm, and we could see a region with secondary maxes if the bands set up in the right place and tap into an ideal dendriitic growth ribbon. But for now, I think we still need another day or so of modelling to throughly ingest the energy once it gets into the southwest and possibly provide a better consensus. I'm def liking the trends though.

[PSU8315]

Just for fun, some raw numbers from the 12z Euro:

Harrisburg: 1.12"

Lancaster: 1.18"

Williamsport: 1.07"

Selinsgrove: 1.05"

Altoona: 1.15"

State College: 0.93"

Johnstown: 1.01"

Clearfield: 0.74"

Bradford: 0.71"

[sauss06]

HPC has a pretty good breakdown of things this afternoon in its forecast discussion which can be read HERE. They basically want to see other models trend towards the new 12z Euro before committing to it's slower solution and are going heavy on a consensus of 0z/12z euro, 12z GGEM, and 0z euro mean. All of that leads to something near the 0z Euro track...def a very reasonable call at this point. I haven't seen the hard numbers for myself yet (still waiting), but the 12z Euro is probably the first run that cracks folks deep into central PA since going toward this gulf low- miller A type solution.

I'm def not ready to bite on significant snow for the JST/AOO/UNV corridor yet but my confidence is increasing on at least the southeastern 2/3s of CPA seeing some kind of snowfall. I think folks in the I-81 corridor are in a pretty good place attm. Last nights Euro got those guys pretty good with a general .5-.7". Ratios are going to be a factor in this storm.. it is looking to be a very cold storm, and we could see a region with secondary maxes if the bands set up in the right place and tap into an ideal dendriitic growth ribbon. But for now, I think we still need another day or so of modelling to throughly ingest the energy once it gets into the southwest and possibly provide a better consensus. I'm def liking the trends though.

Thanks for your input, i appreciate it

[canderson]

PSU8315, thanks again (btw, what is your name so I can refer to you as an actual person?! ). By Thursday night, we should have a pretty good read on timing shouldn't we? By then the pieces are in place - while the track can/will alter the timing should be much better read then right?

[PSU8315]

PSU8315, thanks again (btw, what is your name so I can refer to you as an actual person?! ). By Thursday night, we should have a pretty good read on timing shouldn't we? By then the pieces are in place - while the track can/will alter the timing should be much better read then right?

You can call me Brian.

And yes, by Thursday night we should have a clearer picture on the evolution/timing. The upper-level energy comes onshore tomorrow night, so Thursday will be the day to watch the models as they start to figure out what to do with all of the energy. Until then, it's anyone's best guess...

[canderson]

Brian, gotcha. I'm Chris. Names aren't important though, just getting some snow into interior PA is at this point!

[MAG5035]

Just for fun, some raw numbers from the 12z Euro:

Finally was able to look at the full Euro, man what a bomb.

[sauss06]

Finally was able to look at the full Euro, man what a bomb.

I know. It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside and i'm not even drinking egg nog

[2001kx]

Just for fun, some raw numbers from the 12z Euro:

Harrisburg: 1.12"

Lancaster: 1.18"

Williamsport: 1.07"

Selinsgrove: 1.05"

Altoona: 1.15"

State College: 0.93"

Johnstown: 1.01"

Clearfield: 0.74"

Bradford: 0.71"

FINALLY some euro numbers for our area

nice ones as well...even me on the lower end would be looking at 6-12 with a decent ratio.

[JamieOber]

radio show on now - click on the link at the top of the page.

[Voyager]

Just for fun, some raw numbers from the 12z Euro:

Harrisburg: 1.12"

Lancaster: 1.18"

Williamsport: 1.07"

Selinsgrove: 1.05"

Altoona: 1.15"

State College: 0.93"

Johnstown: 1.01"

Clearfield: 0.74"

Bradford: 0.71"

I can't tell you how much I want those numbers to verify. That way EVERYONE gets in on the good snows.

[PSU8315]

Looking at the 0z runs from the American side, there is still nothing even close to a consensus forming. There are a lot of players in the upper levels and a lot of energy on the table -- the models are struggling with what to do with all of that energy. Very subtle differences can yield vastly different results, and that's what we're seeing in these different runs.

Watching the trends will be important, but I'm thinking it could be the end of the week before we have a solid idea on what's going to happen with this.

[2001kx]

Looking at the 0z runs from the American side, there is still nothing even close to a consensus forming. There are a lot of players in the upper levels and a lot of energy on the table -- the models are struggling with what to do with all of that energy. Very subtle differences can yield vastly different results, and that's what we're seeing in these different runs.

Watching the trends will be important, but I'm thinking it could be the end of the week before we have a solid idea on what's going to happen with this.

so 1-2 feet for everyone in central pa ...gotcha!!

you know one of these days it will happen...we just have to live long enough to see it happen-lol.

'93 was a loooong time ago.

[PSU8315]

so 1-2 feet for everyone in central pa ...gotcha!!

you know one of these days it will happen...we just have to live long enough to see it happen-lol.

'93 was a loooong time ago.

'96 was always the one I remember because we lived near Philly at the time. We got 28" or so out of that. For a while, I thought I would never see anything like it -- then February 5-6, 2010 happened with the two feet of snow.

You'll get yours up north...eventually........

[MAG5035]

Looking at the 0z runs from the American side, there is still nothing even close to a consensus forming. There are a lot of players in the upper levels and a lot of energy on the table -- the models are struggling with what to do with all of that energy. Very subtle differences can yield vastly different results, and that's what we're seeing in these different runs.

Watching the trends will be important, but I'm thinking it could be the end of the week before we have a solid idea on what's going to happen with this.

That'd be great posted over in the regular discussion thread as well considering the general morale of the posters over there tonight after the 0z suite haha. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the Euro backs away from the coast tonight.. nor would I be if it upped the ante and held its 12z solution. Ultimately these models are probably going to be bonkers until that SW energy is well sampled.