JamieOber Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 t Last year it seemed like we got every last minute shift that we needed. Can the magic continue with this storm? Nice if we all get it. I'm gonna have the full Euro here very shortly once Accupro updates on my laptop. I did see the Ewall version of the Euro and judging from the 850 and 700mb relative humidity plots folks like you and myself are def on the edge of the deform. So yea that .1-.25 is probably correct. Did say couple days ago that there was a good chance this comes west in time this week, though didn't really expect all the models to bury this in the ocean before starting to come back around today. Now that this is within 72 hours, and things are right in the world (i.e the GFS now southeast of the Euro).. I'm inclined to lean towards the Euro's track of the low or at least take a blend of the two. Couple that with what is appears to be a bit more of a healthy SW shortwave then what was progged and i'd say we have a pretty viable threat for at least the 81 corridor and east. There's def still time for this to come back west even further getting central PA more involved.. though on the same token still plenty of time for this to back off towards what the models previously had. Yeah, that's the thing. But hey, if we get 1-3 with this and 1-3 with the clipper, I guess that locks in our white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nice if we all get it. Yeah, that's the thing. But hey, if we get 1-3 with this and 1-3 with the clipper, I guess that locks in our white Christmas. what do you need, another 50-100 west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nice if we all get it. Yeah, that's the thing. But hey, if we get 1-3 with this and 1-3 with the clipper, I guess that locks in our white Christmas. Yep it sure would, and I think we finally get involved in that next clipper. I just seen the full Euro.. I'm assuming you were using Port Matilda when refering to Tombo's map and actually on the full Euro it doesn't appear we get anything on that run. The 0.01-0.1 line stays from roughly Harrisburg east and some backlash eventually tries working into a bit of the north central (light). Folks along and inside I-95 get slammed on the Euro. The 15z SREF seems to jive with the Euro in terms of snowfall probs. But yea as I said, certainly some time for this to come west more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yep it sure would, and I think we finally get involved in that next clipper. I just seen the full Euro.. I'm assuming you were using Port Matilda when refering to Tombo's map and actually on the full Euro it doesn't appear we get anything on that run. The 0.01-0.1 line stays from roughly Harrisburg east and some backlash eventually tries working into a bit of the north central (light). Folks along and inside I-95 get slammed on the Euro. The 15z SREF seems to jive with the Euro in terms of snowfall probs. But yea as I said, certainly some time for this to come west more. I saw the Euro and it looks like a 4-6 for the clipper here. I was surprised. So you are in Bellwood as in near Tipton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So you are in Bellwood as in near Tipton? Yup that'd be the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yup that'd be the one cool Hey guys down toward York/Harrisburg/Lancaster, Sunday's storm is a lock. NWS's Martin had this: STILL EXPECT A CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS STORM OFF THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PERHAPSA DUSTING OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.STILL A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD AND SEVERAL DAYS OUT. Twice before the big storms last year he had "hard to see much more than an inch or two of snow across the south from upcoming system" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 cool Hey guys down toward York/Harrisburg/Lancaster, Sunday's storm is a lock. NWS's Martin had this: STILL EXPECT A CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...AS STORM OFF THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PERHAPSA DUSTING OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.STILL A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD AND SEVERAL DAYS OUT. Twice before the big storms last year he had "hard to see much more than an inch or two of snow across the south from upcoming system" LOL, thought the same thing when i saw the long term earlier. Will never forget that Feb 4, 2010 disco with "perhaps 2 or 3 inches in the southern tier counties." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Ended with .7" Nice little snow. Looking for huge west shift tonight. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL, thought the same thing when i saw the long term earlier. Will never forget that Feb 4, 2010 disco with "perhaps 2 or 3 inches in the southern tier counties." I remember the DEC one saying maybe a light snow. We got 19". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OURFORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF THE SYSTEM HOLDS CLOSER TOTHE COAST...THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEMAINLY TO OUR EAST. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOEXACTLY WHAT SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE HASSUGGESTED THAT THE LOW MAY BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED THEFORECAST TO INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE FORACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 They couldve saved a bunch of typing and just said, "shrug". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks like we will have to wait for our snowstorm a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Chilly night. Sitting around 12 deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The EURO gaveth, and then the EURO tooketh away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 yeah, anyone else feelin like a YO-YO...down, up, down. up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Face it lower Sus valley guys, we need miracles to happen in order to get a snowstorm in this wreather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Face it lower Sus valley guys, we need miracles to happen in order to get a snowstorm in this wreather pattern. Looks like a Clipper-happy pattern for the next week or so. We have to get the core of the cold out of here to get a more favorable storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yea, clippers look favorable. Hbg tends not to fare all too well with clippers it seems like, but maybe we can catch these for a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Bring on the clippers! GFS would be a 1-2" event for me. Hopefully it trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Bring on the clippers! GFS would be a 1-2" event for me. Hopefully it trends better. Can you gift wrap that Santa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Can you gift wrap that Santa GFS ens are 2-4" for the area. I however have 0 confidence in any model right now till inside of 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12/16 12z Euro...12/17 12z Euro...unbelievable differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I expect cloudy skies Sunday so anything more will be a plus. We got spoiled last year with the west trend at the last moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 In regards to the clippers. Not sure what year it was."2002 - 2003"?? But it was cold and snowy. And it seemed like about every other day. We would be getting 1-2 inches. Routine was put a pot of coffee on and then go clear snow. It all adds up in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I can't believe no one has said anything about the Christmas Eve/Day snowstorm in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Too early. I'm not looking at models until within 3-4 days. No reason to except fir general trends. My .02 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I can't believe no one has said anything about the Christmas Eve/Day snowstorm in here! Which is the reason I hang out somewhat out of region. There is really no discussion here. It's all in the Philly/NYC forum. Of course that is so I-95 specific it grinds me. Basically there is really no good, concise information for inland areas (away from the I-95 cities) with regard to models and upcoming storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Which is the reason I hang out somewhat out of region. There is really no discussion here. It's all in the Philly/NYC forum. Of course that is so I-95 specific it grinds me. Basically there is really no good, concise information for inland areas (away from the I-95 cities) with regard to models and upcoming storm threats. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maeve Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 " Basically there is really no good, concise information for inland areas (away from the I-95 cities) with regard to models and upcoming storm threats." Given the high concentration of meteorologists in the State College area, that's both surprising and disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 No big threats here thats why its quiet. The philly threads get exited when every time they see a fish storm a week out. Xmas is a week away wait till thur to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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