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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

PennMan

By PennMan,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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JamieOber

JamieOber

Posted
Posted

Ok this is bothering my, why does somerset. have the some of the highest totals but evertime I look at the radar everthing is north of them. Mabey it fell overnight or they are in the blank spot of radar coverage. I don't remember that being before.

That's actually fairly common. If you compare radar to webcams in that area, you often see nothing on radar but lots of snow on webcams. Not sure why.

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PSU8315

PSU8315

Posted
Posted

I assume it's because the orographic/LE snow is below the radar beam at that distance.

Yep, that is most likely the case. LE is very shallow, so areas away from the radar site have this problem with the radar beam overshooting the snow. Erie has this same problem because they're in a black hole of radars between Cleveland, Buffalo and Pittsburgh.

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PennMan

PennMan

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Yep, that is most likely the case. LE is very shallow, so areas away from the radar site have this problem with the radar beam overshooting the snow. Erie has this same problem because they're in a black hole of radars between Cleveland, Buffalo and Pittsburgh.

Seems like the State College radar overshoots LE snow at around 50-55 miles from the radar dome, Johnstown is about 65 miles out.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Seen some discussion/debate earlier today in the 12z model thread about some similarities of this potential weekend threat to the Dec 19th storm last year in terms of setup as well as model handling at this range (i.e too far east). Certainly not an exact match, but there is significant blocking downstream just like last year with plenty of cold weather over the east. Given model trends this year, and even from last year at times.. there is a good chance that this comes west in time this week. Just look at what happened with this last storm. This time around, a notable shift west would put central and especially eastern PA in business for snow.

Interestingly, CTP long term brings up both aspects:

INCREASING CONCERN FOR A COASTAL STORM NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

GIVEN TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO FCST LOWS TOO FAR EAST THIS THE LAST

FEW SEASONS. ALSO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT A LOW

ABOUT 100 TO 200 MILES FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS SHOW. FOR NOW...

DID UP POPS TO 20 PERCENT EAST OF MTS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SITUATION SIMILAR TO LAST DECEMBER 19TH STORM.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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Storm Clouds

Storm Clouds

Posted
Posted

Seen some discussion/debate earlier today in the 12z model thread about some similarities of this potential weekend threat to the Dec 19th storm last year in terms of setup as well as model handling at this range (i.e too far east). Certainly not an exact match, but there is significant blocking downstream just like last year with plenty of cold weather over the east. Given model trends this year, and even from last year at times.. there is a good chance that this comes west in time this week. Just look at what happened with this last storm. This time around, a notable shift west would put central and especially eastern PA in business for snow.

Interestingly, CTP long term brings up both aspects:

If I get at least 6 inches I will be happy...Anything less, well then I will probably have school on Monday and be mad!:P

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted

This storm that we are talking about - the one the 18z GFS destroys Philly and NYC - is for Sunday right?

Just like last year we are going to NYC this Saturday for Prairie Home Companion and, like last year, models show a huge hit. This year, we hope it starts after the show.

Last year we left Harrisburg with 4 inches and followed the snow into NYC and had a hell of a time getting home, having to stay overnight because travel wasn't possible. The nearly 2 feet of snow in Manhattan overnight did us in.

Edit: Apologies, typing on the iPhone on the good ol' bumpy PA roads doesn't make for coherent reading!

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Seen some discussion/debate earlier today in the 12z model thread about some similarities of this potential weekend threat to the Dec 19th storm last year in terms of setup as well as model handling at this range (i.e too far east). Certainly not an exact match, but there is significant blocking downstream just like last year with plenty of cold weather over the east. Given model trends this year, and even from last year at times.. there is a good chance that this comes west in time this week. Just look at what happened with this last storm. This time around, a notable shift west would put central and especially eastern PA in business for snow.

Interestingly, CTP long term brings up both aspects:

I think that if you look at the upper air pattern on the Euro which has the trough axis from near Toronto due south, and the negative tilt taken on at that point, it argues that the low could be placed too far east and too strung out. There are quite a few ensembles on the GGEM and GFS at 12z that had a further west solution than even the GFS OP has.

That said, I don't know if this kind of storm is very favorable for central PA to see much snow unless there's a dramatic change over the next day or two toward a faster, full phase and hook due north or even NNW. Places south and east of Harrisburg could be in the game, but a lot more might need to happen that isn't being seen by most models for places like State College and north to have a shot.

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hckyplayer8

hckyplayer8

Posted
Posted

Where exactly is this so called Chicken Capital?

Fredericksburg

Lebanon County, right? You're the same hckyplayer8 from accushat's website?

I'm guessing you just misquoted and I'll answer yes.

That would be amusing, considering I've lived in Lebanon County all my life and never heard it called the capital of anything. :lol:

Where at? If you were ever up in the F-burg area during a hot summer day I'm sure you smelled the lovely Bell and Evan Chicken plants. One is right behind the elementary school. Occasionally chickens would jailbreak, hop the fence into the schoolyard in which we would entertain ourselves with a rousing game of choke chase the chicken.

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PennMan

PennMan

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Fredericksburg

I'm guessing you just misquoted and I'll answer yes.

Where at? If you were ever up in the F-burg area during a hot summer day I'm sure you smelled the lovely Bell and Evan Chicken plants. One is right behind the elementary school. Occasionally chickens would jailbreak, hop the fence into the schoolyard in which we would entertain ourselves with a rousing game of choke chase the chicken.

:lol: I'm from just north of Myerstown. And yeah, I've smelled the plants in Fredericksburg....worked the last two summers at the Sherwin-Williams warehouse.

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted

Snowing now here as well. Though very light, it's all sticking. Light dusting here at work below Columbia.

Umm, guys. Especially east of the river, we might want to start paying attention to Sunday after seeing the latest EURO run...

By the radar, i would expect snow soon.

I'm just west of the river, honestly i have been paying attention the entire time. I would not be shocked if CPA got involved, having said that, i won't be shocked if we don't get it either.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted

By the radar, i would expect snow soon.

I'm just west of the river, honestly i have been paying attention the entire time. I would not be shocked if CPA got involved, having said that, i won't be shocked if we don't get it either.

By looking at Tombo's precip map in the Philly thread, we both would most definitely be "involved" come Sunday. :)

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
Posted

Be nice if that moves farther west. According to tombo I am in the .1-.25 area.

I'm gonna have the full Euro here very shortly once Accupro updates on my laptop. I did see the Ewall version of the Euro and judging from the 850 and 700mb relative humidity plots folks like you and myself are def on the edge of the deform. So yea that .1-.25 is probably correct. Did say couple days ago that there was a good chance this comes west in time this week, though didn't really expect all the models to bury this in the ocean before starting to come back around today.

Now that this is within 72 hours, and things are right in the world (i.e the GFS now southeast of the Euro).. I'm inclined to lean towards the Euro's track of the low or at least take a blend of the two. Couple that with what is appears to be a bit more of a healthy SW shortwave then what was progged and i'd say we have a pretty viable threat for at least the 81 corridor and east. There's def still time for this to come back west even further getting central PA more involved.. though on the same token still plenty of time for this to back off towards what the models previously had.

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