Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

[PennMan]

How far north, Vairo Village/State College Park, or further?

BTW, there looks to be an awesome ocean effect snowband developing maybe 15 miles south of me and headed straight ESE... It's calm as anything at my place now and yet it's probably snowing like crazy just out into the open ocean under that band. Amazing.

State College Park.

Cool stuff about the ocean effect.

Snow's melting off on south-facing areas here now...doesn't help that it probably had a ridiculous snow to liquid equivalent.

I guess the Euro is farther east.

So much for that being a lock model.

The back and forth with the models on this storm has been both comical and frustrating.

[2001kx]

3 inches here last night from those bands...finally.

[WmsptWx]

Got a nice dusting last night in Wormleysburg. Nothing to write home about, but certainly didn't see it coming.

Do we have ANY idea what's going on regarding this weekend's "storm"? Seriously, at this point I'm starting to question whether or not said storm will even exist...

[2001kx]

Got a nice dusting last night in Wormleysburg. Nothing to write home about, but certainly didn't see it coming.

Do we have ANY idea what's going on regarding this weekend's "storm"? Seriously, at this point I'm starting to question whether or not said storm will even exist...

according to tombo the euro doesnt sound too bad for western / central,pa.

[WmsptWx]

according to tombo the euro doesnt sound too bad for western / central,pa.

I'm assuming Tombo is a user here? lol. You'll have to forgive me, I'm new here (as I didn't learn about the easternuswx collapse until yesterday) and don't recognize too many people (I do recognize sauss from over there). It may be a guidance model I've never heard of, also. I'm kinda blod there lol

I'll try not to complain too much lol. Some of us in the HBG area got a nice lashing from the Clearfield to Wilkes-Barre crowd last year lol

[2001kx]

I'm assuming Tombo is a user here? lol. You'll have to forgive me, I'm new here (as I didn't learn about the easternuswx collapse until yesterday) and don't recognize too many people (I do recognize sauss from over there). It may be a guidance model I've never heard of, also. I'm kinda blod there lol

I'll try not to complain too much lol. Some of us in the HBG area got a nice lashing from the Clearfield to Wilkes-Barre crowd last year lol

yes tombo is a member here who gives a play by play of the euro as he gets it before anyone else (paid subscription)

no lashing from me...thats not my style and im the only one from clearfield that i know of on here.

[wederwarrior]

anybody want to throw a guess as to where the /:raining:(snow/slop/rain line) sets up in PA?

[canderson]

I'll bite: NW Ohio.

Sauss, we had a good dusting in midtown this a.m. Any more west though, nada. Not anything at WITF.

[sauss06]

I'll bite: NW Ohio.

Sauss, we had a good dusting in midtown this a.m. Any more west though, nada. Not anything at WITF.

Our streets were and lawns were covered over home. But here at work off of Elmerton Ave. there was nothing.

[jm1220]

Looks like the very far NW Euro/GGEM solution finally won out. Maybe you guys can get some backlash snows as the coastal low revs up. The bottom line remains the same-bitter to extreme cold behind the storm, and a resumption of the LES/upslope machine.

[MAG5035]

I have a preliminary scenario map that I will be posting soon. Just trying to haggle out some details.

[MAG5035]

Here is the scenario map.. due to the complexity of the storm I have decided to label the different sections. This is preliminary, and will likely look different a time or two before the storm arrives.

A. In this region I anticipate this event to be primarily a snow event throughout the duration. Initial WAA precip that comes up may potentially briefly mix with some freezing rain or sleet for a time in places (primarily south), but generally this region should stay mainly snow until the probable transfer of the low to the coast starts drawing in the cold air and thus maintaining all snow. Depending on how the coastal low evolves, this region may also be subject to a decent period of deform snowfall. Too early for exact totals for sure but in this scenario I would expect at least a low end warning criteria snowfall in this region (i.e 6-8 inch variety).

B. This region either will start as a wintry mix and go over to snow or start as snow and go over to a period of mixing before going back over to snow as the coastal low winds up. Judging off of SREF, predominant mixing precip probably will be freezing rain, though some areas might see sleet as well. As in region A, coastal low evolution may lock in deform snowfall for a time. Possible snowfall totals in the winter weather advisory range (3-5 inch variety)

C1. This area may start as a wintry mix and/or rain for a time, and then eventually transition over to snow as the coastal low develops. Possible deform positioning will affect snow totals. Currently I expect 1-3 inch type snowfall.

C2. This area could start as a brief wintry mix before going over to rain for a while, and then eventually over to snow as coastal establishes. Possible totals also of the 1-3 inch variety.

D1. Starting as rain and staying rain for a good portion of the storm. Changeover to snow eventually occurs as coastal winds up. Snow totals of the T-2 inch variety

D2. Starting as rain and staying rain for most of the storm duration. Depending on coastal low development/positioning these areas could experience a brief period of snow or snow showers toward the end of the storm. Any snow generally under an inch.

As stated, this is preliminary.. my map pretty much depends on the development of a secondary low pressure on the coastline, which is the scenario I have expected the last several days. If this ends up as only a primary to the lakes and little or no reflection to the coast.. the wintry part of my map is going to bust of course. Additionally the position of the deform snowfall if a secondary low becomes established will affect the area of highest snow totals.. and hinges on the positioning of said secondary low.

[2001kx]

Here is the scenario map.. due to the complexity of the storm I have decided to label the different sections. This is preliminary, and will likely look different a time or two before the storm arrives.

A. In this region I anticipate this event to be primarily a snow event throughout the duration. Initial WAA precip that comes up may potentially briefly mix with some freezing rain or sleet for a time in places (primarily south), but generally this region should stay mainly snow until the probable transfer of the low to the coast starts drawing in the cold air and thus maintaining all snow. Depending on how the coastal low evolves, this region may also be subject to a decent period of deform snowfall. Too early for exact totals for sure but in this scenario I would expect at least a low end warning criteria snowfall in this region (i.e 6-8 inch variety).

B. This region either will start as a wintry mix and go over to snow or start as snow and go over to a period of mixing before going back over to snow as the coastal low winds up. Judging off of SREF, predominant mixing precip probably will be freezing rain, though some areas might see sleet as well. As in region A, coastal low evolution may lock in deform snowfall for a time. Possible snowfall totals in the winter weather advisory range (3-5 inch variety)

C1. This area may start as a wintry mix and/or rain for a time, and then eventually transition over to snow as the coastal low develops. Possible deform positioning will affect snow totals. Currently I expect 1-3 inch type snowfall.

C2. This area could start as a brief wintry mix before going over to rain for a while, and then eventually over to snow as coastal establishes. Possible totals also of the 1-3 inch variety.

D1. Starting as rain and staying rain for a good portion of the storm. Changeover to snow eventually occurs as coastal winds up. Snow totals of the T-2 inch variety

D2. Starting as rain and staying rain for most of the storm duration. Depending on coastal low development/positioning these areas could experience a brief period of snow or snow showers toward the end of the storm. Any snow generally under an inch.

As stated, this is preliminary.. my map pretty much depends on the development of a secondary low pressure on the coastline, which is the scenario I have expected the last several days. If this ends up as only a primary to the lakes and little or no reflection to the coast.. the wintry part of my map is going to bust of course. Additionally the position of the deform snowfall if a secondary low becomes established will affect the area of highest snow totals.. and hinges on the positioning of said secondary low.

I hope your right -- fingers crossed --

[psnnstater77]

Here is the scenario map.. due to the complexity of the storm I have decided to label the different sections. This is preliminary, and will likely look different a time or two before the storm arrives.

A. In this region I anticipate this event to be primarily a snow event throughout the duration. Initial WAA precip that comes up may potentially briefly mix with some freezing rain or sleet for a time in places (primarily south), but generally this region should stay mainly snow until the probable transfer of the low to the coast starts drawing in the cold air and thus maintaining all snow. Depending on how the coastal low evolves, this region may also be subject to a decent period of deform snowfall. Too early for exact totals for sure but in this scenario I would expect at least a low end warning criteria snowfall in this region (i.e 6-8 inch variety).

B. This region either will start as a wintry mix and go over to snow or start as snow and go over to a period of mixing before going back over to snow as the coastal low winds up. Judging off of SREF, predominant mixing precip probably will be freezing rain, though some areas might see sleet as well. As in region A, coastal low evolution may lock in deform snowfall for a time. Possible snowfall totals in the winter weather advisory range (3-5 inch variety)

C1. This area may start as a wintry mix and/or rain for a time, and then eventually transition over to snow as the coastal low develops. Possible deform positioning will affect snow totals. Currently I expect 1-3 inch type snowfall.

C2. This area could start as a brief wintry mix before going over to rain for a while, and then eventually over to snow as coastal establishes. Possible totals also of the 1-3 inch variety.

D1. Starting as rain and staying rain for a good portion of the storm. Changeover to snow eventually occurs as coastal winds up. Snow totals of the T-2 inch variety

D2. Starting as rain and staying rain for most of the storm duration. Depending on coastal low development/positioning these areas could experience a brief period of snow or snow showers toward the end of the storm. Any snow generally under an inch.

As stated, this is preliminary.. my map pretty much depends on the development of a secondary low pressure on the coastline, which is the scenario I have expected the last several days. If this ends up as only a primary to the lakes and little or no reflection to the coast.. the wintry part of my map is going to bust of course. Additionally the position of the deform snowfall if a secondary low becomes established will affect the area of highest snow totals.. and hinges on the positioning of said secondary low.

Thats a great map.. Don't know why some over in Pittsburgh thread thinks they are going to get 6-12"

[JamieOber]

Oh hai guyz. I'm the 12/10 0Z NAM. Just when you all think you know what is going to happen with this storm, I come along. HEE!

[northcentralpawx]

Setting at 0 F currently, in extreme NW Tioga County, interested in how far below 0 we go tonight. Fresh 3" snowpack here, thanks to a thin Huron/Erie LE band that stuck around last night.

[PSU8315]

Oh hai guyz. I'm the 12/10 0Z NAM. Just when you all think you know what is going to happen with this storm, I come along. HEE!

Yeah, this is almost getting annoying. We're not just watching for where the track of a single storm, but the overall setups are changing from model run to model run.

I think the NAM shows the scenario that has the best chance of a big snow in western/central PA -- the cold front slides through and then stalls while the area of low pressure rides up along it.

[JamieOber]

Setting at 0 F currently, in extreme NW Tioga County, interested in how far below 0 we go tonight. Fresh 3" snowpack here, thanks to a thin Huron/Erie LE band that stuck around last night.

Wow.

Glad to have representation from up there.

[2001kx]

Yeah, this is almost getting annoying. We're not just watching for where the track of a single storm, but the overall setups are changing from model run to model run.

I think the NAM shows the scenario that has the best chance of a big snow in western/central PA -- the cold front slides through and then stalls while the area of low pressure rides up along it.

how feasible is that solution?

[northcentralpawx]

Yea, been following the weather for years, especially winter weather since I'm a big time snowmobile fanatic. Not much into predicting, but I can offer some reports from an area that is often not to well represented usually. This area has some unique weather that is not normally captured in some of the main topic threads. Currently there is anywhere from <1" snow cover in eastern Tioga County to 6" to 8" into Potter County. Hoping this next storm can add to the snowpack. Currently -2 F here.

Wow.

Glad to have representation from up there.

[PSU8315]

how feasible is that solution?

I've seen much stranger things happen. The 00z GFS appears to be going towards this solution as well. Time to see what the 00z Canadian and Euro have in store...

[EasternUSWX]

The clipper system look like it is heading right for us. Some light reflectivity on radar with heavier stuff forming on OH. Temp is 17.8 here with a 84% humidity.

[2001kx]

I've seen much stranger things happen. The 00z GFS appears to be going towards this solution as well. Time to see what the 00z Canadian and Euro have in store...

well i guess its a wait and see situation.

im hoping for at least a few inches.

[sauss06]

Nice and crisp this morning. I had 20 this am. Maybe some flurries later?

[JamieOber]

Nice and crisp this morning. I had 20 this am. Maybe some flurries later?

light snow here right now: http://146.186.123.229/axis-cgi/jpg/image.cgi?resolution=352x240

Time sensitive, but if you click refresh on your browser real fast it becomes a video and you can see the flakes

[sauss06]

light snow here right now: http://146.186.123.2...olution=352x240

Time sensitive, but if you click refresh on your browser real fast it becomes a video and you can see the flakes

thats funny.....radar shows our area filling in.........Virga

[JamieOber]

thats funny.....radar shows our area filling in.........Virga

It's snowing harder than I expected it to based on looking at Web cams to our southwest, and it's picking up here. Maybe a surprise inch.

[sauss06]

It's snowing harder than I expected it to based on looking at Web cams to our southwest, and it's picking up here. Maybe a surprise inch.

I was just looking at the Pa traffic cams, SR22 & str 0453 at Water Street . roads are covered there

[EasternUSWX]

Flurries here.

[sauss06]

My daughter ask me the million dollar question this am........will it be rain, snow or ice Sunday when we are cutting down our tree? So i gave her the best answer i could and said yes!