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Central PA Winter '10-'11 Obs/Discussion I

PennMan

By PennMan,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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PennMan

PennMan

Posted
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How far north, Vairo Village/State College Park, or further?

BTW, there looks to be an awesome ocean effect snowband developing maybe 15 miles south of me and headed straight ESE... It's calm as anything at my place now and yet it's probably snowing like crazy just out into the open ocean under that band. Amazing.

State College Park.

Cool stuff about the ocean effect.

Snow's melting off on south-facing areas here now...doesn't help that it probably had a ridiculous snow to liquid equivalent.

I guess the Euro is farther east.

So much for that being a lock model.

The back and forth with the models on this storm has been both comical and frustrating.

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
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Got a nice dusting last night in Wormleysburg. Nothing to write home about, but certainly didn't see it coming.

Do we have ANY idea what's going on regarding this weekend's "storm"? Seriously, at this point I'm starting to question whether or not said storm will even exist...

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2001kx

2001kx

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Got a nice dusting last night in Wormleysburg. Nothing to write home about, but certainly didn't see it coming.

Do we have ANY idea what's going on regarding this weekend's "storm"? Seriously, at this point I'm starting to question whether or not said storm will even exist...

according to tombo the euro doesnt sound too bad for western / central,pa.

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

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according to tombo the euro doesnt sound too bad for western / central,pa.

I'm assuming Tombo is a user here? lol. You'll have to forgive me, I'm new here (as I didn't learn about the easternuswx collapse until yesterday) and don't recognize too many people (I do recognize sauss from over there). It may be a guidance model I've never heard of, also. I'm kinda blod there lol

I'll try not to complain too much lol. Some of us in the HBG area got a nice lashing from the Clearfield to Wilkes-Barre crowd last year lol

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2001kx

2001kx

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I'm assuming Tombo is a user here? lol. You'll have to forgive me, I'm new here (as I didn't learn about the easternuswx collapse until yesterday) and don't recognize too many people (I do recognize sauss from over there). It may be a guidance model I've never heard of, also. I'm kinda blod there lol

I'll try not to complain too much lol. Some of us in the HBG area got a nice lashing from the Clearfield to Wilkes-Barre crowd last year lol

yes tombo is a member here who gives a play by play of the euro as he gets it before anyone else (paid subscription)

no lashing from me...thats not my style and im the only one from clearfield that i know of on here.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

Posted
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Here is the scenario map.. due to the complexity of the storm I have decided to label the different sections. This is preliminary, and will likely look different a time or two before the storm arrives.

post-1507-0-59002500-1291945479.png

A. In this region I anticipate this event to be primarily a snow event throughout the duration. Initial WAA precip that comes up may potentially briefly mix with some freezing rain or sleet for a time in places (primarily south), but generally this region should stay mainly snow until the probable transfer of the low to the coast starts drawing in the cold air and thus maintaining all snow. Depending on how the coastal low evolves, this region may also be subject to a decent period of deform snowfall. Too early for exact totals for sure but in this scenario I would expect at least a low end warning criteria snowfall in this region (i.e 6-8 inch variety).

B. This region either will start as a wintry mix and go over to snow or start as snow and go over to a period of mixing before going back over to snow as the coastal low winds up. Judging off of SREF, predominant mixing precip probably will be freezing rain, though some areas might see sleet as well. As in region A, coastal low evolution may lock in deform snowfall for a time. Possible snowfall totals in the winter weather advisory range (3-5 inch variety)

C1. This area may start as a wintry mix and/or rain for a time, and then eventually transition over to snow as the coastal low develops. Possible deform positioning will affect snow totals. Currently I expect 1-3 inch type snowfall.

C2. This area could start as a brief wintry mix before going over to rain for a while, and then eventually over to snow as coastal establishes. Possible totals also of the 1-3 inch variety.

D1. Starting as rain and staying rain for a good portion of the storm. Changeover to snow eventually occurs as coastal winds up. Snow totals of the T-2 inch variety

D2. Starting as rain and staying rain for most of the storm duration. Depending on coastal low development/positioning these areas could experience a brief period of snow or snow showers toward the end of the storm. Any snow generally under an inch.

As stated, this is preliminary.. my map pretty much depends on the development of a secondary low pressure on the coastline, which is the scenario I have expected the last several days. If this ends up as only a primary to the lakes and little or no reflection to the coast.. the wintry part of my map is going to bust of course. Additionally the position of the deform snowfall if a secondary low becomes established will affect the area of highest snow totals.. and hinges on the positioning of said secondary low.

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2001kx

2001kx

Posted
Posted

Here is the scenario map.. due to the complexity of the storm I have decided to label the different sections. This is preliminary, and will likely look different a time or two before the storm arrives.

post-1507-0-59002500-1291945479.png

A. In this region I anticipate this event to be primarily a snow event throughout the duration. Initial WAA precip that comes up may potentially briefly mix with some freezing rain or sleet for a time in places (primarily south), but generally this region should stay mainly snow until the probable transfer of the low to the coast starts drawing in the cold air and thus maintaining all snow. Depending on how the coastal low evolves, this region may also be subject to a decent period of deform snowfall. Too early for exact totals for sure but in this scenario I would expect at least a low end warning criteria snowfall in this region (i.e 6-8 inch variety).

B. This region either will start as a wintry mix and go over to snow or start as snow and go over to a period of mixing before going back over to snow as the coastal low winds up. Judging off of SREF, predominant mixing precip probably will be freezing rain, though some areas might see sleet as well. As in region A, coastal low evolution may lock in deform snowfall for a time. Possible snowfall totals in the winter weather advisory range (3-5 inch variety)

C1. This area may start as a wintry mix and/or rain for a time, and then eventually transition over to snow as the coastal low develops. Possible deform positioning will affect snow totals. Currently I expect 1-3 inch type snowfall.

C2. This area could start as a brief wintry mix before going over to rain for a while, and then eventually over to snow as coastal establishes. Possible totals also of the 1-3 inch variety.

D1. Starting as rain and staying rain for a good portion of the storm. Changeover to snow eventually occurs as coastal winds up. Snow totals of the T-2 inch variety

D2. Starting as rain and staying rain for most of the storm duration. Depending on coastal low development/positioning these areas could experience a brief period of snow or snow showers toward the end of the storm. Any snow generally under an inch.

As stated, this is preliminary.. my map pretty much depends on the development of a secondary low pressure on the coastline, which is the scenario I have expected the last several days. If this ends up as only a primary to the lakes and little or no reflection to the coast.. the wintry part of my map is going to bust of course. Additionally the position of the deform snowfall if a secondary low becomes established will affect the area of highest snow totals.. and hinges on the positioning of said secondary low.

I hope your right -- fingers crossed --

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psnnstater77

psnnstater77

Posted
Posted

Here is the scenario map.. due to the complexity of the storm I have decided to label the different sections. This is preliminary, and will likely look different a time or two before the storm arrives.

post-1507-0-59002500-1291945479.png

A. In this region I anticipate this event to be primarily a snow event throughout the duration. Initial WAA precip that comes up may potentially briefly mix with some freezing rain or sleet for a time in places (primarily south), but generally this region should stay mainly snow until the probable transfer of the low to the coast starts drawing in the cold air and thus maintaining all snow. Depending on how the coastal low evolves, this region may also be subject to a decent period of deform snowfall. Too early for exact totals for sure but in this scenario I would expect at least a low end warning criteria snowfall in this region (i.e 6-8 inch variety).

B. This region either will start as a wintry mix and go over to snow or start as snow and go over to a period of mixing before going back over to snow as the coastal low winds up. Judging off of SREF, predominant mixing precip probably will be freezing rain, though some areas might see sleet as well. As in region A, coastal low evolution may lock in deform snowfall for a time. Possible snowfall totals in the winter weather advisory range (3-5 inch variety)

C1. This area may start as a wintry mix and/or rain for a time, and then eventually transition over to snow as the coastal low develops. Possible deform positioning will affect snow totals. Currently I expect 1-3 inch type snowfall.

C2. This area could start as a brief wintry mix before going over to rain for a while, and then eventually over to snow as coastal establishes. Possible totals also of the 1-3 inch variety.

D1. Starting as rain and staying rain for a good portion of the storm. Changeover to snow eventually occurs as coastal winds up. Snow totals of the T-2 inch variety

D2. Starting as rain and staying rain for most of the storm duration. Depending on coastal low development/positioning these areas could experience a brief period of snow or snow showers toward the end of the storm. Any snow generally under an inch.

As stated, this is preliminary.. my map pretty much depends on the development of a secondary low pressure on the coastline, which is the scenario I have expected the last several days. If this ends up as only a primary to the lakes and little or no reflection to the coast.. the wintry part of my map is going to bust of course. Additionally the position of the deform snowfall if a secondary low becomes established will affect the area of highest snow totals.. and hinges on the positioning of said secondary low.

Thats a great map.. Don't know why some over in Pittsburgh thread thinks they are going to get 6-12"

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PSU8315

PSU8315

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Oh hai guyz. I'm the 12/10 0Z NAM. Just when you all think you know what is going to happen with this storm, I come along. HEE!

Yeah, this is almost getting annoying. We're not just watching for where the track of a single storm, but the overall setups are changing from model run to model run.

I think the NAM shows the scenario that has the best chance of a big snow in western/central PA -- the cold front slides through and then stalls while the area of low pressure rides up along it.

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2001kx

2001kx

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Posted

Yeah, this is almost getting annoying. We're not just watching for where the track of a single storm, but the overall setups are changing from model run to model run.

I think the NAM shows the scenario that has the best chance of a big snow in western/central PA -- the cold front slides through and then stalls while the area of low pressure rides up along it.

how feasible is that solution?

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northcentralpawx

northcentralpawx

Posted
Posted

Yea, been following the weather for years, especially winter weather since I'm a big time snowmobile fanatic. Not much into predicting, but I can offer some reports from an area that is often not to well represented usually. This area has some unique weather that is not normally captured in some of the main topic threads. Currently there is anywhere from <1" snow cover in eastern Tioga County to 6" to 8" into Potter County. Hoping this next storm can add to the snowpack. Snowman.gif Currently -2 F here.

Wow.

Glad to have representation from up there.

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