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February Forecast Contest, Temperatures


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Tricky.. could bust low or high depending if blocking develops or not..... if it doesn't.. could torch late month if pna collapses. if blocking redevelops... will hold temps back down..

DCA: -1.3

NYC: -1.9

BOS: -0.4

:arrowhead:

Adjusting this upward..

DCA: -0.4

NYC: -1.2

BOS: -1.3

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If its that warm already....... and only going to get warmer next week.. Will be cold over the next few days prior to that..

Yeah, I had counted on the early month being colder, and then the snowcover helping to dampen the late month readings, especially up in BOS. But we are just going to be way too warm for my guess.

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I looked at updates after one very warm day (14th), a colder day (15th) and today's rather warm values ... seems we are now around

DCA +1.0

NYC +1.0

BOS -1.0

(estimates for values end of today)

but with two obvious warm days coming, the main story is that we will be sitting around (3,2.5,2) by the weekend, then a series of either normal or cold days may bring this back down to or perhaps below zero eventually? It could be a slight negative again by month's end.

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I looked at updates after one very warm day (14th), a colder day (15th) and today's rather warm values ... seems we are now around

DCA +1.0

NYC +1.0

BOS -1.0

(estimates for values end of today)

but with two obvious warm days coming, the main story is that we will be sitting around (3,2.5,2) by the weekend, then a series of either normal or cold days may bring this back down to or perhaps below zero eventually? It could be a slight negative again by month's end.

February definitely isn't going to finish as warm as I originally expected when I did my winter outlook in October...we're sitting just slightly above normal for the three stations now, and will increase that anomaly in the next two days with departures near +20. However, the rest of February looks pretty chilly with the polar vortex sitting over Quebec due to the -NAO pattern, especially for the northern stations which will be more influenced by the PV and less by the SE ridge. Saturday and Sunday look slightly below normal, and then some bigger negatives next week with the confluence building down. Euro has -16C 850s near NYC next week with several days less than -10C, definitely colder than average as we get into the last parts of meteorological winter.

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