mahk_webstah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 what is concerning to me up here (and I mean that in 2 ways..up at my house in nh and up here at 30,000 ft where I am right now) is that the HPC 5 day precip has shifted south and east. I am now in the .75-1 whereas last night i was 1 -1.25. that is good for the rest of sne though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Now i got your attention, 0z is the run that is...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Rgem now has the breakoff low at 1003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 what is concerning to me up here (and I mean that in 2 ways..up at my house in nh and up here at 30,000 ft where I am right now) is that the HPC 5 day precip has shifted south and east. I am now in the .75-1 whereas last night i was 1 -1.25. that is good for the rest of sne though.... Not that concerend yet, They have gone back and forth on the track the last few days.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Rgem now has the breakoff low at 1003 I think that is the low jumping and redeveloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 what is concerning to me up here (and I mean that in 2 ways..up at my house in nh and up here at 30,000 ft where I am right now) is that the HPC 5 day precip has shifted south and east. I am now in the .75-1 whereas last night i was 1 -1.25. that is good for the rest of sne though.... We're shut out almost entirely on both the GFS/NAM from 0z or 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I see he's forecasting FROM THE FUTURE again... That is always a concern. Between that and his ranges he sure comes up with some nice forecasts. LOL at the 12z NAM giving me a big ol' 0.3 inches. Hey, it's all snow! Euro is definitely a big run, as it was last night. Hope it works out the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Rgem now has the breakoff low at 1003 Rgem is a little faster than the nam but it just made a significant leap towards the sheared dual low idea. Nam ridiculousness cancel pending the rest of the suite. With so much cold air to the north I guess I'd expect the higher res models to perhaps have a better handle on potential spinups...so it's an interesting change to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We're shut out almost entirely on both the GFS/NAM from 0z or 6z. Those two models have had a lot of problems over the last 3 days or so, don't worry right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I said yesterday afternoon even after the 12Z Euro that this will be a whiff for most of New England. The changes of OTC far exceed mixing/rain issues. 12Z suite will be interesting but up here in Central NH I am certainly not worried about a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tip went rafters on us, in his thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think that is the low jumping and redeveloping. Compared to the earlier cmc runs the mls are slower and further west yet this fires faster and stronger. Along 40n compared to the earlier run heights have pushed east out towards the high and instead of pointing at the bm like earlier runs the bagginess points further east. The 546 is not digging down into the se this run either, it's hanging much further north with that system. Just my thoughts but I think it's pointing towards a big shift toward consensus irregardless of what the lower res gem says. The other thing is the weak sw that was diving down towards sw Iowa is weaker this run. Overall I think it's more amped and a little faster than the nam, but regardless of the lower res ggem it's making a move here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tip went rafters on us, in his thread. Absolutely. Warmed to -1.6, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 what is concerning to me up here (and I mean that in 2 ways..up at my house in nh and up here at 30,000 ft where I am right now) is that the HPC 5 day precip has shifted south and east. I am now in the .75-1 whereas last night i was 1 -1.25. that is good for the rest of sne though.... Mark, Living just 30 miles NW of you I want this storm so bad. Just don't see it up here. Hope I am wrong. The 12Z NAM might be screwed up with the double low. Interesting to see the 12Z GFS but I think the models will continue to tease us with a sharp gradiant to our SE but precip not getting in here. I am a big fan of trends and with the Euro being consistant I would think we would see the American models start to come that way and they have not in any meaning ful way. Todays 12Z suite will be huge. Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12Z GFS is running, come on NW trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tip went rafters on us, in his thread. All I have to see; something has to give there, going to go read Tippys post lol http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/DT24/t0.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can not see rain on the major models Garth where are you getting that from? . . . Just me over reacting to anything but snow (even sleet). Put me on ignore and go on with your day. I will either come to my senses or lock myself back into my padded room as to not bother anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tip went rafters on us, in his thread. Your question was a good one - this thing doesn't look like it'll race by us like that. It goes from the GOM to VA/NC in 24 hours and speeds up some after, but not that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No worries, the 12z gfs is arriving and any discrepencies should be resolved with this upcoming run. Promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Look at how much better the vort and surface low line up at 30hr of the 12z gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tip loses his patience on his earlier thoughts fairly quickly when solutions dont come around fast enough. rgem and gfs are pretty similar through 36. Unlike the nam they aren't burying the low way south in the gom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tip loses his patience on his earlier thoughts fairly quickly when solutions dont come around fast enough. rgem and gfs are pretty similar through 36. Unlike the nam they aren't burying the low way south in the gom GFS looks a little sharper it looks to be digging more south......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Gfs is jumping a low onto the coast faster than the 0z...just off the coast of sc. Colder too as some warm air may be delayed or cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Gfs is jumping a low onto the coast faster than the 0z...just off the coast of sc. Colder too as some warm air may be delayed or cut Does not look too different than 06z thru 42h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At 48 heights are nudged east a smidge versus the 0z over pa nj etc...small amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Does not look too different than 06z thru 42h. Given how erratic the 6z/18zs have been I'm comparing to the 0z...sorry I didn't make that clear my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS a little north and sharper with the srn vortmax so it will be a little north of 06z. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As much as Tip provides some excellent insights, and puts on a front of objectivity, he's very emotional about storms. It's either historic, or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is this the Burbank feature at play? Heights are nudged east over se pa ny nj mass ever so slightly yet down south looks good. Is this the squeeze he spoke of? Either way even with heights nudged east the low manages to come further north...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As much as Tip provides some excellent insights, and puts on a front of objectivity, he's very emotional about storms. It's either historic, or nothing. I straightened him out..he's back on board..and really all he has are some rope marks on his neck. he had only been swinging for about 15 seconds when i found him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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