Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think it's pretty clear really. The nam is right when it's giving big snows even if it doesn't always make sense getting there. At 5h in previous storms it had issues but the end result track was very good. When it isn't giving big snows something is clearly wrong with it. Especially when all the other models still are....the logic is infallible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm just throwing this out there...I'm guessing the double low double front scenario isn't right lol. nam could very well be overplaying the first wave. i think a lot of guidance is actually playing around with this idea a bit. even the euro has a strung out appearance for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man I hope the NAM is wrong, wow...troubling to see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 nam smokes this area...near blizzard conditions. i guess it has to be right. lol. I'd rather see the cape get blizzard chances and feet of snow, and me not scoring as much than a rain switch over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think it's pretty clear really. The nam is right when it's giving big snows even if it doesn't always make sense getting there. At 5h in previous storms it had issues but the end result track was very good. When it isn't giving big snows something is clearly wrong with it. Especially when all the other models still are....the logic is infallible. stop shadow boxing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think it's pretty clear really. The nam is right when it's giving big snows even if it doesn't always make sense getting there. At 5h in previous storms it had issues but the end result track was very good.When it isn't giving big snows something is clearly wrong with it. Especially when all the other models still are....the logic is infallible. these aren't just track differences... synoptics on NAM differ from EURO and GFS at the surface... strung out double low structure vs. a more consolidated low, and this is probably related to it being a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its been a concern of mine since 0Z Sunday Euro's run. I don't have the critical thicknesses. I do see on SV the 540 thickness line has had a good deal of separation further north than the 0c 850 and 32F 2 m values. One time frame on the 0 Z Sunday Euro run the 540 line was north of the entire state of Massachusetts, while the 850 0 C line further south as well as the 32 F 2 meter temperature. If there's no sneaky warmth between 2 m and 850, its got to be warmer somewhere higher up to force the 1000-500 mb thickness values higher than 540 DM. I have been thinking about this quite a bit. As this sounding shows from the NAM today , above 540 thickness still result in cold lower layers , just an example why 540 does not tell the whole story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is this going to be a case where North Bristol county will see snow to rain/sleet back to snow and accumulate? trying to wrap my head on what kind of snow accumulation is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol. I'd rather see the cape get blizzard chances and feet of snow, and me not scoring as much than a rain switch over. I can not see rain on the major models Garth where are you getting that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think it's pretty clear really. The nam is right when it's giving big snows even if it doesn't always make sense getting there. At 5h in previous storms it had issues but the end result track was very good. When it isn't giving big snows something is clearly wrong with it. Especially when all the other models still are....the logic is infallible. The NAM has a strange look to it that Phil and others have pointed out. Nobody is calling it out because it does not give snow...who knows..it could be onto something, but when every piece of guidance doesn't agree and the fact that the solution seems strange, I don't see anything wrong with questioning it. Some of the models like the euro do have a bit of an elongated appearance to, but this happens at a further north latitude. The euro also makes sense synoptically by the placement of surface low pressure and the H5 vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 stop shadow boxing... I'm being serious. Clearly something is wrong with the nam. Unless someone here thinks it's right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Harvey I'm guessing? if this is just inside the benchmark I'm willing to bet it's a big hit for Boston...it's a big system with a big precip shield. Any closer than that and Boston starts to have precip problems. Barry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm being serious. Clearly something is wrong with the nam. Unless someone here thinks it's right? The only time I remember people being ardent about the NAM being more right was for January 12th. Yes, it likely isn't right. I don't agree with the double energy scenario. The NAM does this on occasion and usually ends up incorrect. It also did the shortwave shred at the last minute for the past mini-snowstorm. It ended up being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack Suslak Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Cantore just posted on facebook after record lows there is no block to keep the cold in, so it looks like a 1-4 inch RAIN storm for the I-95 corridor. I thought it was mix or snowstorm or possibly out to sea, what model is he referring to? Or that not including New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Call me crazy, but I'm still having a hard time getting fired up about a storm that is still a risk for both going out to sea and/or changing me over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Call me crazy, but I'm still having a hard time getting fired up about a storm that is still a risk for both going out to sea and/or changing me over. That's true for most storms at the 72-96 hour range isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Cantore just posted on facebook after record lows there is no block to keep the cold in, so it looks like a 1-4 inch RAIN storm for the I-95 corridor. I thought it was mix or snowstorm or possibly out to sea, what model is he referring to? Or that not including New England? A number of the more experienced mets see this system being closer to the coast than is what's modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Call me crazy, but I'm still having a hard time getting fired up about a storm that is still a risk for both going out to sea and/or changing me over. You're crazy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 A number of the more experienced mets see this system being closer to the coast than is what's modeled. Don't put me even in the same hemisphere as those mentioned professionals but I do think there is no way this goes SE of the benchmark. I think most of us here will be concerned with how close this gets to ACK and the not BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 About the only thing anyone can say is that today's Euro run is w/o a doubt the most important run of our lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The only time I remember people being ardent about the NAM being more right was for January 12th. Yes, it likely isn't right. I don't agree with the double energy scenario. The NAM does this on occasion and usually ends up incorrect. It also did the shortwave shred at the last minute for the past mini-snowstorm. It ended up being wrong. until the euro bends, given run after run of essentially the same output, it's hard to think the NAM will win the day. what the nam is doing is pretty much the same as a lot of the srefs members/09z eta/rsm etc. they all develop a surface trough along the SE coast and then lower SLP off of hatteras and shoot an initial LP ENE before the main vortmax is in entirely in the picture. tough to say whether that hatteras low deserves to be there or not. all products seem to have a blow up of convection in that region but the ec/cmc just don't let it win out. nam/srefs/gfs at times also just don't carry the vortmax nearly as far NE. ncep products have been doing this off/on now for a few days...shooting the vorticity sort of ENE off of the MA as opposed to rounding the bend and coming right up over the MA and new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 About the only thing anyone can say is that today's Euro run is w/o a doubt the most important run of our lives So dramatic LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 About the only thing anyone can say is that today's Euro run is w/o a doubt the most important run of our lives not really.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 About the only thing anyone can say is that today's Euro run is w/o a doubt the most important run of our lives Until the next storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 not really.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 just like the Jets win, la la la, la la la, lock it up 12-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 A number of the more experienced mets see this system being closer to the coast than is what's modeled. I'd agree with this from talking to some up and down the coast. There are two very distinct camps and has been all along. Most do not favor the middle needle track, some like Burbank think it's a grazer, others favor a hugger or even inland track. We are seeing this play out with models like the nam where the needle can't be thread and things shift. I half expect to see the rest of the suite shift around too. Very fickle timing. As far as the mini vortices offshore, common nam problem but quite often it still ends up occurring to some extent where its not enough to have jumped the low but it does create a mother dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 About the only thing anyone can say is that today's Euro run is w/o a doubt the most important run of our lives haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Rgem slowed down the ml coming out of Texas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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