Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM may actually be a Cape scraper. yeah it's like 38/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT's first call...hoping for a track slightly further NW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like it's still going to go just se of the BM. What kind of timeframe do you think this starts on Wed? is it like late day or late morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM may actually be a Cape scraper. Although it wraps more in the deep south for a few critical hours confluence is stronger over us. Kind of exactly what Burbank was talking about in his blog. It's getting in tight now, soon enough the meso models should take over. That said, until the nam is supported elsewhere.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What a bad run..toss it.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM may actually be a Cape scraper. I think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone else think the northwest trend for this particular storm is not obligatory? Just a though... typically this year, we've seen both southern shortwaves and northern shortwaves strengthen in the final 72 hours or so before an event. For this particular storm, it appears the northern shortwave is acting as a kicker instead of phasing with the southern shortwave. If both the northern and southern shortwave strengthen in the final 72 hours of modeling, than the net result is not much movement. You can see this somewhat in the NAM, the southern shortwave is stronger this run, but 500mb heights do not budge over the northeast in the hours before the storm because of suppression from the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Oh that lovely NAM....lol. I hope nobody falls for it. What is your take on this?? Is the euro developing the surface low way NE from the Vort too?? Is this a plausable solution? Look at all.of the precip left back on Nam at 60 lol I find it weird that the srefs are showing precip for NE and the Nam is not. Never happened in the other storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That DT map is perfecto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT's first call...hoping for a track slightly further NW: la la la lock it........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT's first call...hoping for a track slightly further NW: Me likey. Too bad we can't lock that in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Someone is wrong with the NCEP site.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone else think the northwest trend for this particular storm is not obligatory? Just a though... typically this year, we've seen both southern shortwaves and northern shortwaves strengthen in the final 72 hours or so before an event. For this particular storm, it appears the northern shortwave is acting as a kicker instead of phasing with the southern shortwave. If both the northern and southern shortwave strengthen in the final 72 hours of modeling, than the net result is not much movement. You can see this somewhat in the NAM, the southern shortwave is stronger this run, but 500mb heights do not budge over the northeast in the hours before the storm because of suppression from the northern stream. Yeah I noticed that. I have a hard time with a 38/70 track right now. If everything else suddenly shifts at 12z, then maybe it was onto something, but I don't know..it's on another level right now. I do agree about the nrn stream and confluence having a role. It's probably why this won't go into srn CT....hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What is your take on this?? Is the euro developing the surface low way NE from the Vort too?? Is this a plausable solution? See post below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 What is going on at 54 hrs on the 12Z NAM? Is the image wrong? Looks like 30 hrs, not 54, strange. Convective feedback. Looks like it's developing the low on that piece of energy off the coast rather than the main ULL> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT's first call...hoping for a track slightly further NW: I see he's forecasting FROM THE FUTURE again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What kind of timeframe do you think this starts on Wed? is it like late day or late morning? Maybe noon or so?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah I noticed that. I have a hard time with a 38/70 track right now. If everything else suddenly shifts at 12z, then maybe it was onto something, but I don't know..it's on another level right now. I do agree about the nrn stream and confluence having a role. It's probably why this won't go into srn CT....hopefully. oh yeah...I don't mean that. I mean just inside the benchmark...not MVY or Cape Cod...similar to what we've seen from the Euro and it's ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm almost willing to bet I get more snow from Tuesdays event than Thursday slop fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Maybe noon or so?? Noon in W. areas or all the way to the coast? I'm supposed to teach in Newton on wed. and really don't want to risk the drive back down RT 2 in a whiteout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Convective feedback. Looks like it's developing the low on that piece of energy off the coast rather than the main ULL> Yeah it is still strung out. You can see that t finally decides to slow down and await the arrival of the better forcing at hr 57, but it is somewhat of a head scratcher. While convective feedback can be real, it also can play games with meso models like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 nam smokes this area...near blizzard conditions. i guess it has to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm almost willing to bet I get more snow from Tuesdays event than Thursday slop fest According to the NAM, that would appear to be the case for much of NE. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Noon in W. areas or all the way to the coast? I'm supposed to teach in Newton on wed. and really don't want to risk the drive back down RT 2 in a whiteout. Well I think by early aftn it should start near BOS, but won't be heavy until the evening. I wouldn't feel comfortable with the timing on this, since it is track dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm just throwing this out there...I'm guessing the double low double front scenario isn't right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 nam smokes this area...near blizzard conditions. i guess it has to be right. I do hope you guys pull some fun out of this. You deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 oh yeah...I don't mean that. I mean just inside the benchmark...not MVY or Cape Cod...similar to what we've seen from the Euro and it's ensembles. Just so you know one of Bostons best forecasters was calling for this to be a light to moderate hit in Boston for your reasons. He's been at this thirty years and felt the northern stream would prevent a ride up the coast on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm almost willing to bet I get more snow from Tuesdays event than Thursday slop fest Count on it. I'm not getting my hopes up any more this winter. Full of disappointment in my area. Ill take sleet over rain at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just so you know one of Bostons best forecasters was calling for this to be a light to moderate hit in Boston for your reasons. He's been at this thirty years and felt the northern stream would prevent a ride up the coast on the euro. Harvey I'm guessing? if this is just inside the benchmark I'm willing to bet it's a big hit for Boston...it's a big system with a big precip shield. Any closer than that and Boston starts to have precip problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Me likey. Too bad we can't lock that in. Not bad. I am right on the fringe in that one. Might keep my car from looking like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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