Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol at the 18z GFS OP GFS is on drugs. Ensembles appear to have shifted very little or maybe SE a hair. Taunton "ALSO NOTING A GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP WORKING UP THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SO COULD SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOES LOOK LIKE THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT COULD SEE SOME WORK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY WHERE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not one piece of guidance depicts mixing as far in as BOX implies, unless they just mean CT and RI, but I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, looks like we've cleared another model cycle and all systems go. Feeling pretty good about the outcome here. That DT's first guess map someone posted this AM looks pretty good to me. If indeed this storm lands a punch here on the East slope it will be record January. This Winter could easily vault into some pretty rarified air. -3* currently. How low did you go last night Pete? I heard Springfield was -20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The Euro has been showing a lot of sleet into CT...esp S of HFD in the Upton zones so its certainly possible that they struggle to see a lot of accumulations until the CCB gets going late. Obviously if something like the 18z GFS verified, then it would be a lot snowier, but the Euro and its ensembles have been pretty steady. They can always ramp up tonight if it looks a bit colder...but its tougher to hype it and then ramp back down if it looks like there will be a ton of sleet and then less than warning snow on the back end. This was discussed before and I'm not trying to do a MBY thing as it's totally fine to be conservative for me, but even the 12GFS pounded enough (all?) of CT far into warning criteria. I guess they're afraid of the sleet fest still the way you say it. They've done a great job this year. I think the 18z was a funny joke, but it sure is pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 They are really playing the heavy rain up, http://www.erh.noaa....Briefing_FB.pdf wow...great link Steve...really nice! Some of those graphics I've never seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its to far SE, Nam is still trending NW as it was way east, Euro has been the most consistant, Thats the bus i am on....... Getting to within 48 hours of game time .. figure we see a NW movement on the GFS at 00z or 12z, not sure if the wonky 6z will be trustworthy. I feel pretty good for warning-criteria snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Box afd is another shining example of the utter lack of confidence in an event still almost two days out. So Box not sold on big storm..neither is Upton nor Grey, Albany a bit more enthusiasitc but still wary. Hopefully there will be a much much sharper consensus by this time tomorrow!! Well they are sold on a big storm but my meaning is a big winter storm with heavy snows over a good portion of any of respective office's forecast regions. They are just being cautious. It always seems like once the convection is fired the models have less of a hard time with the solutions. That said it's pretty clear when they talk about at least two short waves moving in the flow....there's a split system down there right now notice the dual drying. It's a bit messy. It's the eastern extension driving the drying into the eastern part of southern texas that the NAM/RGEM and others end up bringing up the coast....it's not like it's a phantom feature its already visible and it's already firing convection in the GOM. IMO it's that feature that drives the two lobes of moisture, it's the eastern portion of it until the entire thing comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is it me, or is there a high over Quebec when this system hits.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W1WFG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Getting to within 48 hours of game time .. figure we see a NW movement on the GFS at 00z or 12z, not sure if the wonky 6z will be trustworthy. I feel pretty good for warning-criteria snow. GYX digitial zone has .25-.50 qpf, and all snow, for interior Cumberland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Getting to within 48 hours of game time .. figure we see a NW movement on the GFS at 00z or 12z, not sure if the wonky 6z will be trustworthy. I feel pretty good for warning-criteria snow. I'm fully expecting a bit of a NW nudge in the final 2 days. If we don't get it, it will be the first system all winter it hasn't done that in the final 48h. Even the disaster whiff on Dec 21-22 looked like nothing except a couple inches on the Cape until the last second and then it backed in and gave them a foot. And of course we know about the W/NW trends of Boxing Day and Jan 12th...and even the last fluff bomb we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 wow...great link Steve...really nice! Some of those graphics I've never seen. Yea they do an excellent job, maybe the new blood at Box wil wake them out of their 1999 slumber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm fully expecting a bit of a NW nudge in the final 2 days. If we don't get it, it will be the first system all winter it hasn't done that in the final 48h. Even the disaster whiff on Dec 21-22 looked like nothing except a couple inches on the Cape until the last second and then it backed in and gave them a foot. And of course we know about the W/NW trends of Boxing Day and Jan 12th...and even the last fluff bomb we had. That's why I don't mind a wobble se. Even the 18z GFS gave a nod to tick NW, but it more or less was maybe 5-10 miles west of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm fully expecting a bit of a NW nudge in the final 2 days. If we don't get it, it will be the first system all winter it hasn't done that in the final 48h. Even the disaster whiff on Dec 21-22 looked like nothing except a couple inches on the Cape until the last second and then it backed in and gave them a foot. And of course we know about the W/NW trends of Boxing Day and Jan 12th...and even the last fluff bomb we had. Don't forget the one that drove winter storm warnings down here that went SE at the last minute, just prior to the first blizzard and just after the foot down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 24-36 hrs out it will charge NW. I hope so because--NAM notwithstanding--we've been experiencing a day's worth of slow shifts SE. 2.6/-13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 is this storm coming to close to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is it me, or is there a high over Quebec when this system hits.... It's not classic at all, but it helps. The main high moves east, but still tries to ridge in from the north. Another high moves into Ontario and Quebec, but the arctic air with that will not reach us until after the storm passes. Luckily the ridging with the first high will help us out in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Getting to within 48 hours of game time .. figure we see a NW movement on the GFS at 00z or 12z, not sure if the wonky 6z will be trustworthy. I feel pretty good for warning-criteria snow. I'm fully expecting a bit of a NW nudge in the final 2 days. If we don't get it, it will be the first system all winter it hasn't done that in the final 48h. Even the disaster whiff on Dec 21-22 looked like nothing except a couple inches on the Cape until the last second and then it backed in and gave them a foot. And of course we know about the W/NW trends of Boxing Day and Jan 12th...and even the last fluff bomb we had. Violently agree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 is this storm coming to close to the coast Not really...we just lack a solid cold airmass during the storm because the arctic high is departing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is it me, or is there a high over Quebec when this system hits.... I have been thinking the same Ray, kind of confused with the NWS today, tomorrows clipper clears out and leaves ridging in its place. The fear of a strong southerly constant flow from two days ago seems gone. Also if you look at the grids mostly NNE winds at peak precip times, even in SECT, hard to imagine, Ageo flow included, heavy rain and mix way inland will be an issue. I think sleet like Will defined but that quickly washes out. IDK I am just a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm fully expecting a bit of a NW nudge in the final 2 days. If we don't get it, it will be the first system all winter it hasn't done that in the final 48h. Even the disaster whiff on Dec 21-22 looked like nothing except a couple inches on the Cape until the last second and then it backed in and gave them a foot. And of course we know about the W/NW trends of Boxing Day and Jan 12th...and even the last fluff bomb we had. Yup, it's not like I'm just weenie-goggling it. It's been a pattern this year. If I was targeted for the jackpot right now I'd be ecstatic yet quite concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 nat weather service Hazardous Weather Outlook Tonight: Light snow likely after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 3. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday: A chance of light snow before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Calm wind. Wednesday: A chance of snow before 1pm, then rain and snow likely between 1pm and 4pm, then rain, possibly mixed with sleet after 4pm. High near 35. Northeast wind between 5 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Wednesday Night: Rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 10pm, then freezing rain and sleet between 10pm and 1am, then a chance of snow after 1am. Low around 24. North wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday: A chance of snow, mainly before 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 12. tot of 1 to 2 inches of snow right that downi hope they are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yup, it's not like I'm just weenie-goggling it. It's been a pattern this year. If I was targeted for the jackpot right now I'd be ecstatic yet quite concerned. I'm expecting it, but hopefully it's a 20 mile tick and not a 70 mile launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GYX digitial zone has .25-.50 qpf, and all snow, for interior Cumberland. I suspect that may get raised to the .5-.75 level at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm expecting it, but hopefully it's a 20 mile tick and not a 70 mile launch. Sorry, amigo ... I want the 70. Maybe only 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm expecting it, but hopefully it's a 20 mile tick and not a 70 mile launch. Scott what do you think is going to drive the tick NW? It appears everyone aside of Channel 7 is being pretty cautious at this stage. All but one storm did tick NW inside of 48, but I know everyone always tells me "not the same situation" and I think pretty clearly this is not the same situation as any previous storm this year. Harv doesnt seem to be buying the far NW extent either, he has zero where 7 has 10-15 in parts of VT. Based on Harv's maps he doesn't seem to believe the NW shift at all, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How low did you go last night Pete? I heard Springfield was -20 -19.8. Started work at -17, got to 3 briefly. -5 currently. But this is OT. Looks like more snow to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm expecting it, but hopefully it's a 20 mile tick and not a 70 mile launch. How about we split the diff and go 50 miles.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have been thinking the same Ray, kind of confused with the NWS today, tomorrows clipper clears out and leaves ridging in its place. The fear of a strong southerly constant flow from two days ago seems gone. Also if you look at the grids mostly NNE winds at peak precip times, even in SECT, hard to imagine, Ageo flow included, heavy rain and mix way inland will be an issue. I think sleet like Will defined but that quickly washes out. IDK I am just a weenie. I mean, this isn't a perfect setup, as Scooter just outlined....but BOX is really too meek imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How about we split the diff and go 50 miles.........lol Put this in the cold thread but hey theres your sleet line, LOL cold from space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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