ConvectiveSolutions Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone else hear about a NOAA Recon Jet collecting data over the GOM tonight, which will be inputted into "the models" tomorrow? Source: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Heavy heavy snow They used DT's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Toss it Why do you think toss it? I want to, just wanted to know your feelings on why. One thing I think is good however is the NAM precip came quite a bit north, and even though it still misses us, I had been hoping it was a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GYX gets tepid in their AFD: "NAM HAS LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. GFS BRINGS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EVEN HEAVIER WITH PRECIP. PLAN TO USE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODELS FOR FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT FORECAST." They should pull a Costanza and try forecasting the opposite -- they just might get a forecast correct this winter. haha, wow. I thought this was funny too. They are like, hey, the Euro is impressive and consistent, lets not even consider it, and rather look at the NAM which has been all over the place and GFS who just got the memo today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The reason why I think this storm dosen't come that far north this time is because although we don't have an artic high in place as the storm comes up, the progressive pattern says a slight jerk east instead of going practically do north, northeast. The flow above us is fast and should stop the storm from being a wide spread rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 000 FXUS61 KBOX 242305 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 605 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL STRONG COASTAL STORM TRACKING S OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. BEYOND THIS...MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM A LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. NOTING ONE OR TWO SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE DEEPENING LOW PRES WORKING UP FROM THE GULF COAST AND SE U.S. TO TRACK S OF NEW ENGLAND...BUT A LOT OF OTHER ISSUES TO RESOLVE. MODELS STILL HAVE SOME TRACK SPREAD...BUT ARE SETTLING IN ON THE LOW PASSING CLOSE TO OR JUST INSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO BRING QUITE A BIT OF MILDER AIR RIDING AROUND THE LOW...ESPECIALLY AT THE H850-H700 LEVEL. THE BIG REASON FOR THIS IS THAT THERE IS NO COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM HELPING TO FUNNEL THE COLDER AIR IN. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR TO HELP DETERMINE TRANSITIONS TO MIXED PRECIP...WHICH APPEARS TO TRACK RATHER FAR INLAND...WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN EXPECT ALONG THE S COAST. ANOTHER PROBLEM WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR WILL SCOUR OUT INLAND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL EXIT TONIGHT AND A VERY COLD GROUND. THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT MAINLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY EVEN AS TEMPS GO JUST ABOVE FREEZING WITH SUCH A COLD SURFACE. ALSO NOTING A GOOD SLUG OF PRECIP WORKING UP THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW...SO COULD SEE SOME DECENT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. DOES LOOK LIKE THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT COULD SEE SOME WORK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY WHERE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN OCCURS. SO...EXPECT PRECIP TO COMMENCE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MAY BE DELAYED A BIT FURTHER INLAND AS THE AIRMASS TAKES TIME TO MOISTEN UP WITH SUCH A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS THAT WAS IN PLACE. THE MAIN PART OF THE ACTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND PASSES S OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL ALSO SEE N-NE WINDS INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KT ALONG THE E COAST AND ESPECIALLY ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS/HPC GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF...THOUGH THIS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW/S EXIT ON THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION VERY CLOSELY FOR ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Boston's 10 Snowiest November-January Periods: 1. 1995-96 68.0" 2. 1947-48 60.4" 3. 2004-05 54.4" 4. 2010-11 49.6" 5. 2008-09 49.0" 6. 1903-04 46.3" 7. 1993-94 45.3" 8. 1922-23 43.6" 9. 1977-78 41.8" 10. 1976-77 41.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 All the media stuff I have seen is being very very conservative. Anyway I lost more snow than I thought I would since Friday...Down to fourteen to sixteen inch average in the back yard, not bad though. Anyone still over two feet in depth in more protected areas besides those two guys up in nw ma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Why do you think toss it? I want to, just wanted to know your feelings on why. One thing I think is good however is the NAM precip came quite a bit north, and even though it still misses us, I had been hoping it was a trend. Its to far SE, Nam is still trending NW as it was way east, Euro has been the most consistant, Thats the bus i am on....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Dynamics should over ride BL issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone else hear about a NOAA Recon Jet collecting data over the GOM tonight, which will be inputted into "the models" tomorrow? Source: http://twitter.com/j...667778982051840 Upton AFD, 4:03: HAVE CONTINUED BASICALLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEAR. NOTE THAT NOAA WINTER RECONNAISSANCE IS BEING FLOWN FOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS WILL GET INCLUDED INTO TOMORROW`S 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THUS EXPECT THINGS TO BECOME CLEARER TOMORROW. NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AS WERE STILL OVER 48 HOURS FROM POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA. Though in the same discussion they say this notorious and previously discussed bit, of course, which may need some work by 00z tonight. Fine for the coast like me at this point, but inland? We'll see: PTYPE IS A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AWARM NOSE ALOFT. EVEN INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MIXED PCPN. A WINTRY MIX APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINATE TYPE WITH MORE RAIN TO THE EAST. OF COURSE WITH TRACK AND QPF AMOUNT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...ANY SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR THAT LIKELIHOOD OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS LOW...EVEN INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol at the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BOX is saying that the heaviest stays off shore, yet the mixing works far inland.....not sure I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm starting to feel a little less comfortable here ... on top of the initial conditions of high uncertainty and discomfort I want to see a good shift west tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton AFD, 4:03: Though in the same discussion they say this notorious and previously discussed bit, of course, which may need some work by 00z tonight. Fine for the coast like me at this point, but inland? We'll see: The Euro has been showing a lot of sleet into CT...esp S of HFD in the Upton zones so its certainly possible that they struggle to see a lot of accumulations until the CCB gets going late. Obviously if something like the 18z GFS verified, then it would be a lot snowier, but the Euro and its ensembles have been pretty steady. They can always ramp up tonight if it looks a bit colder...but its tougher to hype it and then ramp back down if it looks like there will be a ton of sleet and then less than warning snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, looks like we've cleared another model cycle and all systems go. Feeling pretty good about the outcome here. That DT's first guess map someone posted this AM looks pretty good to me. If indeed this storm lands a punch here on the East slope it will be record January. This Winter could easily vault into some pretty rarified air. -3* currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z Ukie Thanks same elongated look as the other 18z models. There's a big struggle in this run to figure out where to focus the surface low...if it all (maybe it will be elongated). That's all 18z guidance. The 18z GEFS may have smidged SE a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton AFD, 4:03: Though in the same discussion they say this notorious and previously discussed bit, of course, which may need some work by 00z tonight. Fine for the coast like me at this point, but inland? We'll see: They might sing a different tune tomorrow but this is their afternoon briefing http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/WxBriefing_FB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm feeling pretty shaky on the prospect of big accums. with this storm. A broken up precip. shield with the heaviest offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BOX is saying that the heaviest stays off shore, yet the mixing works far inland.....not sure I buy that. They are talking about the nose of the warm conveyor belt. The Euro had 2"+ offshore and GFS has a max on the Cape...but obviously still big precip makes it over interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm starting to feel a little less comfortable here ... on top of the initial conditions of high uncertainty and discomfort I want to see a good shift west tonight. 24-36 hrs out it will charge NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The Euro has been showing a lot of sleet into CT...esp S of HFD in the Upton zones so its certainly possible that they struggle to see a lot of accumulations until the CCB gets going late. Obviously if something like the 18z GFS verified, then it would be a lot snowier, but the Euro and its ensembles have been pretty steady. They can always ramp up tonight if it looks a bit colder...but its tougher to hype it and then ramp back down if it looks like there will be a ton of sleet and then less than warning snow on the back end. They are really playing the heavy rain up, http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/WxBriefing_FB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm starting to feel a little less comfortable here ... on top of the initial conditions of high uncertainty and discomfort I want to see a good shift west tonight. If there is one it should start here at 0z or 12z tomorow as we are getting inside of hr48, The 18z GFS did have a robust look to the clipper on Saturday here at least if all else failed.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was pointing to my sig. OH LOL now that would be LA EPIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 They are talking about the nose of the warm conveyor belt. The Euro had 2"+ offshore and GFS has a max on the Cape...but obviously still big precip makes it over interior SNE. Oh.....I still think they overstated mixing......reading between the lines I think they had me raining. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd like to wrap the 18z NAM and GFS up in a neat little box and deliver it to my house. My hopes are up for ~6" out of this. It looks like my rain may be limited to a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BOX is saying that the heaviest stays off shore, yet the mixing works far inland.....not sure I buy that. Noone does..It makes no sense..zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Box afd is another shining example of the utter lack of confidence in an event still almost two days out. So Box not sold on big storm..neither is Upton nor Grey, Albany a bit more enthusiasitc but still wary. Hopefully there will be a much much sharper consensus by this time tomorrow!! Well they are sold on a big storm but my meaning is a big winter storm with heavy snows over a good portion of any of respective office's forecast regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You have made 5 posts today and all of them have said rain..There is no rain coming anywhere in CT.. WTF dude? PTYPE IS A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A WARM NOSE ALOFT. EVEN INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MIXED PCPN. A WINTRY MIX APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINATE TYPE WITH MORE RAIN TO THE EAST. OF COURSE WITH TRACK AND QPF AMOUNT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...ANY SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR THAT LIKELIHOOD OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS LOW...EVEN INLAND. this is from NWS lets see did they say RAIN ummm yup they did their is that word again also LOW WARNING criteria for snow inland . just reporting what i read guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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