CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its definitely going to be a ridiculous CCB with that ULL...but I just don't think the two precip shields will be as separated as the GFS shows. The low probably won't outrun the upper level support that much. LOL look at the Ray screw zone of a measly inch. I agree. It's something to watch, but I think more of a classic CCB seems in the cards. The euro had an text book CCB. The ensemble precip probs are juicy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow this gfs blows for the lake region big time Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Will, seriously did you ever think you would rival 95/96 again only with a cold version, this has that feel. Long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 link please and thank you Noreaster07 posted it and I just asked for a link Since this storm looks like it might be split into two parts, an analog I've seen being brought is Dec 2003. his response: A-L-E-X, on 24 January 2011 - 05:17 PM, said: Hey do you have a link for this? Its a pay site but thats where the EURO pbp comes from as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro, GGEM and UKMET. GGEM is still slightly split at 60h, but its all one shield by the time its at our latitude. The RGEM is def splitting it out...signs were there at 48 on the 12z, and it's visible on the 48h at 18z. I think the GGEM ens are pointing to the same thing judging from the output. Be interesting to see where it goes, I think the more we see a split the better the chance of a colder adjustment. I'm thinking the split shield may materialize, but let's see how it looks later in the 0z. (for the out of context crowd...I agree it all washes out as it approaches/is over us anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 easy 12+ for southwest conn if this verifies. seeing as i deal a lot with this region workwise looks like im going to have another day off work this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its definitely going to be a ridiculous CCB with that ULL...but I just don't think the two precip shields will be as separated as the GFS shows. The low probably won't outrun the upper level support that much. imagine if that ULL keeps trending stronger......wasnt it stronger on earlier Euro runs a few days ago? yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its definitely going to be a ridiculous CCB with that ULL...but I just don't think the two precip shields will be as separated as the GFS shows. The low probably won't outrun the upper level support that much. Will, some people are bringing up Dec 2003 as an analog (because it was also a 2 part storm); obviously there was more blocking for that storm, but what do you think of the analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Long way to go. Yeah I still need another 83" to beat 1995-1996's total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Long way to go. Yep, if you get a foot you go above that pace, you definitely are nearing that depth and will have it for much much longer, 95/96 was full of warm melting days. The key will be an Epic March, but Brett man IDK, totally feeling it, if we get that Strato warming it's a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow this gfs blows for the lake region big time Blows for most of Maine. Fortunately it's the off-hour GFS, and we're still more than two days out. Then again, this has been a CT winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yep, if you get a foot you go above that pace, you definitely are nearing that depth and will have it for much much longer, 95/96 was full of warm melting days. The key will be an Epic March, but Brett man IDK, totally feeling it, if we get that Strato warming it's a lock. Forget 95-96 | v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Blows for most of Maine. Fortunately it's the off-hour GFS, and we're still more than two days out. Then again, this has been a CT winter... I really wouldn't be concerned with downeast and S ME. Something with these off hour runs on the NCEP models have been making them go a bit kooky during this threat. Not sure why. As I mentioned yesterday, it reminds me of 5 years ago when they did that all the time. Perhaps there's something to it, but its awfully difficult to just believe the 18z OP GFS over the uber consistent Euro and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Blows for most of Maine. Fortunately it's the off-hour GFS, and we're still more than two days out. Then again, this has been a CT winter... Think boxing day, As the low trends stronger where do you think it ends up moving, Take the euro ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1985 Polar Bear Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Toss it GYX gets tepid in their AFD: "NAM HAS LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. GFS BRINGS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EVEN HEAVIER WITH PRECIP. PLAN TO USE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODELS FOR FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT FORECAST." They should pull a Costanza and try forecasting the opposite -- they just might get a forecast correct this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah I still need another 83" to beat 1995-1996's total. Hmm 2/3 tomorrow 18 Wed 4 sat , make that 58 and it's not Feb, not so funny anymore LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Forget 95-96 | v Why?, but getting OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I realize that these storms are much different synoptically, and that much is likely to change, but still . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its definitely going to be a ridiculous CCB with that ULL...but I just don't think the two precip shields will be as separated as the GFS shows. The low probably won't outrun the upper level support that much. What is causing that relative screw zone up this way......I'll believe it when i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yep, if you get a foot you go above that pace, you definitely are nearing that depth and will have it for much much longer, 95/96 was full of warm melting days. The key will be an Epic March, but Brett man IDK, totally feeling it, if we get that Strato warming it's a lock. 95/96 for us, I don't know about people outside of CT. If this one comes through ohhhhh we are rolling towards those records. To think February has been our best month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What is causing that relative screw zone up this way......I'll believe it when i see it. Its sort of disrupting the flow of the WCB in how it relates to the CCB...its unlikely to work out exactly like that. We might see them slightly disjointed further south but as the low matures and bombs, I'm sure it will look pretty classic in NE. The main features to look at are the poisiton of the 5h ULL/vortmax track and the mid-level centers....we all know how quirky the silly qpf max/mins can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thought it was interesting that NCEP is chopping back QPF inland near the GOM because convection they believe is robbing some of the available moisture. I suspect we see some clarity tonight, but I'm not sold on anything at this point. In short they believe radar trends are supporting some of the later 18z guidance down there. "FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JAN 25/0000 UTC THRU JAN 28/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...DAY 1... ...UPDATE... MAIN CHNGS WERE ALNG THE GULF STS AS CURRENT RDR/SATL TRENDS ARE SHOWG DIFFS COMPARED TO PRVS MDL GUID. LATER ARRIVING GUID IS SHOWG SLGTLY FASTER ENE MOVEMENT...WHILE ALSO SHOWG MORE CNVCTN ALNG THE CST. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT LWR AMTS FARTHER INLAND DUE TO THE DEEPER MSTR GETTING CUTOFF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Heavy heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow HPC maps look like they were collectively drawn by us at the GTG . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is a bit east of the 12z mean...so it mirrored the tick east 18z OP run had. Still just about over the BM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is a bit east of the 12z mean...so it mirrored the tick east 18z OP run had. Still just about over the BM though. Did it look like the GFS or Euro wrt the CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GYX gets tepid in their AFD: "NAM HAS LOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. GFS BRINGS THE LOW FARTHER NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EVEN HEAVIER WITH PRECIP. PLAN TO USE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MODELS FOR FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT FORECAST." They should pull a Costanza and try forecasting the opposite -- they just might get a forecast correct this winter. Thats there M.O. They play it conservative........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is a bit east of the 12z mean...so it mirrored the tick east 18z OP run had. Still just about over the BM though. I'm going to pass my 73 call for BOS in the next few weeks....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 <br /><br />Why?, but getting OT<br /> I was pointing to my sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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