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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco III


Baroclinic Zone

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The GFS really hits the QPF hard as the ULL approaches from the sw.

Its a bit more disjointed with the two qpf shields...I doubt it would turn out that way, but it has happened before (ala March 1-2, 2009)...but usually these things end up phasing together like what the Euro shows and several other globals.

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Dynamics FTW on the 18z GFS. Looks like lift helps keep the 0c line at 850 near the canal or pym. A hair se of 12z.

It's doing some weird things but I think we can expect that because it's having some issues on where to focus. I really like this 18z run so far, across the board for you, Bob....maybe even me.

The 18z GFS nudged the low NE by a decent margin vs 12z at 60/66..it was already likely too fast. JMHO but that's part of the struggle the models are having with this first batch v 2nd batch of moisture.... at the last minute the GFS decided it should focus further east under the best lift. May be a sign of things to come, or just a feedback type error.

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A big net gain, definitely agree there! That stuff is a rock right now under the four or so inches from the other day. This cold only made it even more impenetrable.

I wish you'd tell the deer it is impenetrable. They are digging down to my lawn all over the place. :gun_bandana:

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Its a bit more disjointed with the two qpf shields...I doubt it would turn out that way, but it has happened before (ala March 1-2, 2009)...but usually these things end up phasing together like what the Euro shows and several other globals.

Which other globals? The NOGAPS splits the precip now too at 18z, GFS, and in reality the RGEM was doing it this morning I think...def was doing it at 18z.

It's really just the 12z Euro at this point.

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Which other globals? The NOGAPS splits the precip now too at 18z, GFS, and in reality the RGEM was doing it this morning I think...def was doing it at 18z.

It's really just the 12z Euro at this point.

Euro, GGEM and UKMET.

GGEM is still slightly split at 60h, but its all one shield by the time its at our latitude.

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CT gets hammered there

SW CT gets pummeled into submission

I don't even want to jinx it by saying it. Ridiculous year here already, if anything like that verifies...

Gotta say I am surprised. It's the 18z GFS but...still. I did not think the QPF would bump up that much.

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Wow.. 18+ for most of CT on the GFS

SV's snowmaps show 8-12" for Philly up to Allentown, 12-18" for NYC LI and northern NJ 18-24" in SW CT

4-8" snows from Hagerstown, up to Harrisburg to Scranton , on the east side Delaware river to Trenton and then due east

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I don't even want to jinx it by saying it. Ridiculous year here already, if anything like that verifies...

Gotta say I am surprised. It's the 18z GFS but...still. I did not think the QPF would bump up that much.

A recon is being sent in just in time for the 12z run tomorrow.

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SV's snowmaps show 8-12" for Philly up to Allentown, 12-18" for NYC LI and northern NJ 18-24" in SW CT .... 24+ in MA

4-8" snows from Hagerstown, up to Harrisburg to Scranton , on the east side Delaware river to Trenton and then due east

link please and thank you

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I do think that we could see some areas really get hard with that ULL coming underneath us. That looks classic.

Its definitely going to be a ridiculous CCB with that ULL...but I just don't think the two precip shields will be as separated as the GFS shows. The low probably won't outrun the upper level support that much.

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Its definitely going to be a ridiculous CCB with that ULL...but I just don't think the two precip shields will be as separated as the GFS shows. The low probably won't outrun the upper level support that much.

Will, seriously did you ever think you would rival 95/96 again only with a cold version, this has that feel.

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