ConvectiveSolutions Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 HPC is the wet rag on this storm.. ...NY/NEW ENGLAND...A SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE UPR MIDWEST EWD INTO THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND WED AND THU. THE COLD DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND WATERS...BUT PW WILL REMAIN BELOW 1" AS THE LOW ACCELERATES PAST NEW ENGLAND. Source: http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/qpfpfd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 First little flare up on the water vapor in the GOM. Nice drying coming in from the distant west. -- Little hint of maybe a bigger dry slot than earlier GFS modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The pattern on the globals have been to have not much cold sector qpf until everything closes off south of us. That's what saves SNE/NNE from a blah event hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I thought Ottawa made out better than Quebec....wow. unfortunately not. as you know, all it takes is one big torch or a couple screwup events to mess everything up, even if you recieve a ****load of snow. so its not easy getting depth, even up here, cuz theres always something to come along and screw it up. if you look back at records and reports in the ottawa-montreal corridor, >3 feet depth occurs once ever 5 years approx >2 feet is once every 2 years >1 foot is yearly the one thing is that snow cover is essentially constant up here. several months in a row.....and if there is a meltoff, it will be replaced within a few days by some northern stream event. my personal peak snow depth was in ottawa, 1993.....it was quite a bit....if you start getting close to it, i'll mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 HPC is the wet rag on this storm.. Source: http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/qpfpfd.html Isn't that tomorrow and not Wed/Thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Isn't that tomorrow and not Wed/Thurs? Yeah, they are plenty bullish on the main storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton is playing it rather warm for CT...even said they don't see warning criteria snows as being likely inland. I suppose they'd warn on the snow/sleet combo...but several models spitting out 6"+ even after a wintry mix. Of course to be fair, Its really a tough forecast right now. I could definitely see the immediate shoreline torching and getting plain rain for awhile before going back to snow. But yeah, based on current output...I don't see temps getting above freezing once you get 5-10 miles inland away from the shoreline. Perhaps they are thinking this one trends a little more NW before all is said and done. But they've been pretty aggressive so far this winter, maybe they felt it was time to balance things out and get back to their usual conservative selves. There new HWO suggests moderate snow and ice accumulations, I would imagine thats right on par with guidance for the shoreline? They got grief for not issuing WSW the other day, and they were spot on with there 3-5 outside chance at 6 inches, makes sense to be practical then ramp things up if things warrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Isn't that tomorrow and not Wed/Thurs? I think so. -- GFS 36 hour vs 42 in the old run. It's catching up to the idea that we will have a dual lobe structure maybe...and some interruption in the moisture fields for a time before it all congeals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton is playing it rather warm for CT...even said they don't see warning criteria snows as likely inland. I suppose they'd warn on the snow/sleet combo...but several models spitting out 6"+ even after a wintry mix. Of course to be fair, Its really a tough forecast right now. I could definitely see the immediate shoreline torching and getting plain rain for awhile before going back to snow. But yeah, based on current output...I don't see temps getting above freezing once you get 5-10 miles inland away from the shoreline. Perhaps they are thinking this one trends a little more NW before all is said and done. But they've been pretty aggressive so far this winter, maybe they felt it was time to balance things out and get back to their usual conservative selves. I was thinking/hoping you'd add your thoughts in again, thanks. Hope it calms the crowd. I can totally understand them being conservative with this. No problem there. They can do it all the way through with this kind of setup and probably will until it is close in if the models continue. I think we will see a mess for a while. But obviously what is being spit out at us, assuming it holds around there, says we get plenty of frozen stuff...and more than enough in the end, which is the key, to make you forget about the garbage before it. I also don't want the weenies bridge jumping thinking this is going to be the basement flooding rainfall of the century as seems to be the fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There new HWO suggests moderate snow and ice accumulations, I would imagine thats right on par with guidance for the shoreline? They got grief for not issuing WSW the other day, and they were spot on with there 3-5 outside chance at 6 inches, makes sense to be practical then ramp things up if things warrant. I don't have issue with their forecast for the immediate shoreline. I just think they're a little warm in their northern zones (i.e. northern Middlesex & New Haven). Those places seem to stay colder than forecast more times than not. Overall not trying to bash them at all, they did handle Friday's event well. Just noting that they are being a little more conservative and warm than models are currently indicating. They may wind up being right, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 By 48 it's washing out, you can see what's left of it off NJ and there's somewhat of a break in the precip for a short time in that area. Starting to get some good consensus on that feature, hopefully the solutions continue to gel together tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bouchard going for 10-15 From Quincy to NE CT to W ORH county into SNH. 5-10 Braintree-Taunton, and 1-5 Taunton-Cape, less on the outer cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Noyes has 12 inches from BOS to just south of ORH to HFD to sw Ct.. 8 inches north of that and like 6-8 south of the 12 inch line..Def favoring a colder. farther south scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Now this is the so called PSU Hoffman storm right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was thinking/hoping you'd add your thoughts in again, thanks. Hope it calms the crowd. I can totally understand them being conservative with this. No problem there. They can do it all the way through with this kind of setup and probably will until it is close in if the models continue. I think we will see a mess for a while. But obviously what is being spit out at us, assuming it holds around there, says we get plenty of frozen stuff...and more than enough in the end, which is the key, to make you forget about the garbage before it. I also don't want the weenies bridge jumping thinking this is going to be the basement flooding rainfall of the century as seems to be the fear. yeah...I have a feeling (unless we see a large jump NW with guidance) that even if places like Middletown/Cromwell go to plain rain...it will be brief. Plus, temps would be only a degree or two above freezing, melting would be limited. Predominate precip type up there is gonna be snow & sleet. Looking like net gain for most, if not all of CT on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Harvey's WCVB videocast was just updated. He said a 5-10" / 6-12" appears to be "in the cards" for the area, including Boston. Can you believe this winter?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't have issue with their forecast for the immediate shoreline. I just think they're a little warm in their northern zones (i.e. northern Middlesex & New Haven). Those places seem to stay colder than forecast more times than not. Overall not trying to bash them at all, they did handle Friday's event well. Just noting that they are being a little more conservative and warm than models are currently indicating. They may wind up being right, who knows? As you suggest, Upton did have us being much too warm for the ice storm. They had us getting in the mid to upper 30s. We barely made it above 32, and it was after almost all the precip had fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton has done a terrific job this winter. Having been in meetings for most of the day, I admit I was a bit surprised when I saw their forecast. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not loving the 18z GFS. But it's okay. Because I love all of you. (Except for Typhoon Tip.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was thinking/hoping you'd add your thoughts in again, thanks. Hope it calms the crowd. I can totally understand them being conservative with this. No problem there. They can do it all the way through with this kind of setup and probably will until it is close in if the models continue. I think we will see a mess for a while. But obviously what is being spit out at us, assuming it holds around there, says we get plenty of frozen stuff...and more than enough in the end, which is the key, to make you forget about the garbage before it. I also don't want the weenies bridge jumping thinking this is going to be the basement flooding rainfall of the century as seems to be the fear. I think western coastal ct will be just fine, especially once the ccb starts to develop, looks like 850's crash. My first guess would be some mix going over to snow 3-6 4-8 for the ct western shoreline, we do ok in this setup and much better early on then further east along the coast. Either way its another snow event, with a nice looking clipper this weekend, and dont forget about the inch or two later tonight into tomorrow, 95-96 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS 60 hours buries most of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Dynamics FTW on the 18z GFS. Looks like lift helps keep the 0c line at 850 near the canal or pym. A hair se of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z is going to end up a tick stronger, maybe a tick west and warmer than 12z. The CCB could be even better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yeah...I have a feeling (unless we see a large jump NW with guidance) that even if places like Middletown/Cromwell go to plain rain...it will be brief. Plus, temps would be only a degree or two above freezing, melting would be limited. Predominate precip type up there is gonna be snow & sleet. Looking like net gain for most, if not all of CT on this one. A big net gain, definitely agree there! That stuff is a rock right now under the four or so inches from the other day. This cold only made it even more impenetrable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Absolutely..Have you seen the Euro? I heard the qpf was only 1". Cue Kevin saying "ignore the qpf". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The GFS really hits the QPF hard as the ULL approaches from the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18Z GFS is colder. Would keep me in all snow but probably "only" give me an inch qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It seems every single system has ticked NW in the final 2 days this season...at least since Boxing day. There aren't many synoptic reasons why it would go well SE...we don't have a huge west based block north of us, we have an east based block. The only thing that might argue for a SE solution is there's a bit of a kicker behind this that might try to shunt it east at the last second. But I don't think that would be enough to overcome the other factors. Right...that's the same thing I mentioned earlier. It's possible that both the southern stream shortwave and the northern stream kicker strengthening in the final 2 days of the event will lessen the typical NW correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow yeah the CCB is intense... 1.25+ in 6 hrs in CT LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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