Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Boston will be ahead of it's record year after this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nam's an interesting beast through 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Where on earth are you getting that? LOL i just went on ncep fully expecting for the run to be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hard to argue with Upton but based on all I have seen I think they will trend to leave the rain word out, look for frozen whatever but predominate snow even to the coast in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Must be a sneaky warm layer above 850. It might be overdoing it, but that could be a good deal of sleet near and south of the Pike. Its been a concern of mine since 0Z Sunday Euro's run. I don't have the critical thicknesses. I do see on SV the 540 thickness line has had a good deal of separation further north than the 0c 850 and 32F 2 m values. One time frame on the 0 Z Sunday Euro run the 540 line was north of the entire state of Massachusetts, while the 850 0 C line further south as well as the 32 F 2 meter temperature. If there's no sneaky warmth between 2 m and 850, its got to be warmer somewhere higher up to force the 1000-500 mb thickness values higher than 540 DM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the nam will definitely be nw after hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Boston will be ahead of it's record year after this storm I heard we was gettin' slop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Some snow, then heavy roof crushing rain weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Also better for tuesday light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Some snow, then heavy roof crushing rain weight. Hours of sleet for Tolland Co. though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the nam will definitely be nw after hr 30. It looks like its slightly NW of the 06z run in that time frame....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hard to argue with Upton but based on all I have seen I think they will trend to leave the rain word out, look for frozen whatever but predominate snow even to the coast in CT. Yeah, Upton's been very good this year. I think we'll see a decent amount of sleet...but no rain. Adding to the snowpack FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its been a concern of mine since 0Z Sunday Euro's run. I don't have the critical thicknesses. I do see on SV the 540 thickness line has had a good deal of separation further north than the 0c 850 and 32F 2 m values. One time frame on the 0 Z Sunday Euro run the 540 line was north of the entire state of Massachusetts, while the 850 0 C line further south as well as the 32 F 2 meter temperature. If there's no sneaky warmth between 2 m and 850, its got to be warmer somewhere higher up to force the 1000-500 mb thickness values higher than 540 DM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Some snow, then heavy roof crushing rain weight. LOL, I would not go that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 from what i have been hearing the track will be to close to ct and bring in warm air accuweather has ct in sleet to rain mix may stay all ice in the north east ct i hope i am wrong and we get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 9z ETA crushes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 from what i have been hearing the track will be to close to ct and bring in warm air accuweather has ct in sleet to rain mix may stay all ice in the north east ct i hope i am wrong and we get snow I adore you. I want to adopt you and beat you sternly on the daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxologist Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 5 h and 8 h are way too far west, Enso, NAO are in different states. Not good IMHO I agree with the assessment of the mid- upper-level trough positions, but previous research on EC snowstorms shows that the upper-level trough is a necessary but not sufficient condition for heavy snowfall in the NE...the trough needs to be there but it isn't what controls the sensible weather per say. The low-level fields are more important and hence these are decent matches. I also agree that the ENSO index and NAO are in different states...but it's difficult to near impossible to rely on ENSO for real-time weather...better for seasonal forecasting. As you mentioned the NAO is more of a player since its more regional and can affect the sensible weather...however there have been HECS when the NAO was neutral (as it is here) or negative. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Agreed, but I don't have access to Euro soundings... I'm making an observation by the 3 values I have, great reference though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Loving the 700mi trek that the s/w in the sw made at hr 42 since 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I agree with the assessment of the mid- upper-level trough positions, but previous research on EC snowstorms shows that the upper-level trough is a necessary but not sufficient condition for heavy snowfall in the NE...the trough needs to be there but it isn't what controls the sensible weather per say. The low-level fields are more important and hence these are decent matches. I also agree that the ENSO index and NAO are in different states...but it's difficult to near impossible to rely on ENSO for real-time weather...better for seasonal forecasting. As you mentioned the NAO is more of a player since its more regional and can affect the sensible weather...however there have been HECS when the NAO was neutral (as it is here) or negative. Just my two cents. I agree just think UL are vastly different. Some good matches in there, hmm 2/7/83? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looking like less snow and more sleet to RAIN not looking good for most of ct LOL...5 posts a day limit for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nam is still insisting on developing the low way ahead or the main mid level. Before anyone says it cannot happen it has this year: doesn't mean it's right though. Mix line would be hitting the coast at 57 based on 1000-850 cts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 LOL...5 posts a day limit for you. I was going to reply, but figured you'd be all over that post...good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like it's still going to go just se of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxologist Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I agree just think UL are vastly different. Some good matches in there, hmm 2/7/83? They are very different...which will be interesting to watch too...I totally agree. Yes...that one is very good too...the only thing that scares me on that one is the the -u wind to the north of the 850-mb low is much better than the fcst. Hopefully the 12z models will continue to support the overall scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What is going on at 54 hrs on the 12Z NAM? Is the image wrong? Looks like 30 hrs, not 54, strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM may actually be a Cape scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like it's still going to go just se of the BM. That will have Moneypit and I obsessing over the qpf maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Oh that lovely NAM....lol. I hope nobody falls for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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