skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Weird.. the 18z UKIE is very slow... 988 near the BM at 72hrs (18z Thursday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 HECS gets thrown about a little too liberally these days. Yup. Kind of like the word "crisis". Wrong thread, but I managed to reach 8.5 today. Back down to 6.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its a fine call, your 1-5" is the flaw haha, im barely in the 5-10 by like 2 miles, just didn't see how NYC and SW ct does better than half of SE MA and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You're in a good spot for 18-24 would be my call for the east slopes..sharper cutoff to the west of ALB Wow, you're going ballz to the wall early. I better get more gas for the snow blower b/c that would mean at least 12"+ here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There has been a definite theme this year of models slipping southeast in the 72 to 96 hour range only to come back northwest in the last 36 hours or so. I believe even the Euro and it's ensembles have not always sniffed out that trend. It seems every single system has ticked NW in the final 2 days this season...at least since Boxing day. There aren't many synoptic reasons why it would go well SE...we don't have a huge west based block north of us, we have an east based block. The only thing that might argue for a SE solution is there's a bit of a kicker behind this that might try to shunt it east at the last second. But I don't think that would be enough to overcome the other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Weird.. the 18z UKIE is very slow... 988 near the BM at 72hrs (18z Thursday). It's probably the 12Z with 18Z markings. I've seen Plymouth do that all the time for UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That wasn't me....it was Steve. Bus run over, backed up run over again LOL Upton says no warning criteria in their FA, geez I mean geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not me in VT Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You have made 5 posts today and all of them have said rain..There is no rain coming anywhere in CT.. WTF dude? Do you think Upton Is leaving the door open? Rain down here with a high of 38. This would be very depressing And all I would be doing is pumping basements. I'm not doubting you but What is your logic behind no rain or little here on the shore? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You're in a good spot for 18-24 would be my call for the east slopes..sharper cutoff to the west of ALB Are you serious, Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 haha, im barely in the 5-10 by like 2 miles, just didn't see how NYC and SW ct does better than half of SE MA and RI. Heights crash and we flip to SN while they are mixed or RA? We do well. Deal with it. See? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Weird.. the 18z UKIE is very slow... 988 near the BM at 72hrs (18z Thursday). What's the story on the 18z UKIE? Same data, old data...never read it explained before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Do you think Upton Is leaving the door open? Rain down here with a high of 38. This would be very depressing And all I would be doing is pumping basements. I'm not doubting you but What is your logic behind no rain or little here on the shore? Thanks It's not, relax. Goodness gracious. Mixed bag and some snow depending where you are. Don't worry about your point and click. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's probably the 12Z with 18Z markings. I've seen Plymouth do that all the time for UKMET. I bet you're right because that makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You have made 5 posts today and all of them have said rain..There is no rain coming anywhere in CT.. WTF dude? To be fair, OKX still has some rain in our (Cromwell/Middletown) point forecasts with surface temps getting a bit above freezing for a while. Not sure where they are getting that based on the models, but I keep second guessing them, and keep being wrong. The AFD indicates lots of uncertainty, so they may just have it in for consistency while the details become clearer. My feeling is that as long as the h700 and h850 centers continue to be modeled to close off comfortably south of LI, we'll be majority snow. Looking forward to seeing what the models show after the special recon flight data is integrated tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, I'd call 18" of snow in the Boston area historic and this has that potential. 18" is basically a Top 10, and if everything goes right 18"+ is possible. And the way this winter has gone. It's possible. And that Would be an HECS at least for this area. Maybe it isn't that we throw it around too much, maybe it's just an HECS winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bus run over, backed up run over again LOL Upton says no warning criteria in their FA, geez I mean geez I'm sorry....I shouldn't have mentioned any names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bus run over, backed up run over again LOL Upton says no warning criteria in their FA, geez I mean geez They have been spot on since xmas Ginx, at least over here. Still 60 hours out, if need be they will ramp up the wording. They have nailed the last few storms, nailed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I bet you're right because that makes no sense. And that's exactly where it was 72 hours on the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's probably the 12Z with 18Z markings. I've seen Plymouth do that all the time for UKMET. Thats exactly what it is. 72h on the "18z run" is identical to 72h on the 12z run...they simply just havent updated the maps but updated the time stamp. Sometimes they never update the maps on the off hour runs, its a crap shoot when on when they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey Everybody, I am new to the board and I am so glad that I found this community of weather enthusiasts. I have been a long time meber of the accuweather forums and tri state weather board down in NYC. I just moved to Newton from Manhattan and what a wonderfully beautiful first winter up here. A few posts back someone was commnenting on how crazy the difference is between boston metro and even the immediate suburbs. Yesterday I drove my sister from Newton back to Beacon hill and what she has there is nothing compared to the pack we have out there and it is only about 9 miles! Anyway, amazubg stuff here...what do you guys think for the 128 belt west of the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is HECS potential, but not 1978 potential..nothing does. Oh I agree (even PD2 was nothing like Feb 1978), and I guess it depends on your area as to what you would consider an HECS. For me it's 16. For you, 18 might be a better number. 6-12 SECS 12-18 MECS 18+ HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey Everybody, I am new to the board and I am so glad that I found this community of weather enthusiasts. I have been a long time meber of the accuweather forums and tri state weather board down in NYC. I just moved to Newton from Manhattan and what a wonderfully beautiful first winter up here. A few posts back someone was commnenting on how crazy the difference is between boston metro and even the immediate suburbs. Yesterday I drove my sister from Newton back to Beacon hill and what she has there is nothing compared to the pack we have out there and it is only about 9 miles! Anyway, amazubg stuff here...what do you guys think for the 128 belt west of the city? wouldn't say that too loudly in here LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WHDH-7's snow totals map for 4pm: actually, that was from last night. bouchard showed something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Are you serious, Kevin? Absolutely..Have you seen the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 accu forcast is a joke, in seekonk I get more snow than Boston Wed night. both locals get 4in, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Do you think Upton Is leaving the door open? Rain down here with a high of 38. This would be very depressing And all I would be doing is pumping basements. I'm not doubting you but What is your logic behind no rain or little here on the shore? Thanks I don't think there will be much plain rain on the shore...Sleet and zr..sure before a change back to snow. You have a bombing low with dynamics .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What's the story on the 18z UKIE? Same data, old data...never read it explained before. Not sure.. always figured it was similar to 18z/6z GFS.. I'm sure it's got new satellite data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 actually, that was from last night. bouchard showed something similar. So they used the same map for today? Because I took that not even an hour ago haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Do you think Upton Is leaving the door open? Rain down here with a high of 38. This would be very depressing And all I would be doing is pumping basements. I'm not doubting you but What is your logic behind no rain or little here on the shore? Thanks It's not, relax. Goodness gracious. Mixed bag and some snow depending where you are. Don't worry about your point and click. To be fair, OKX still has some rain in our (Cromwell/Middletown) point forecasts with surface temps getting a bit above freezing for a while. Not sure where they are getting that based on the models, but I keep second guessing them, and keep being wrong. The AFD indicates lots of uncertainty, so they may just have it in for consistency while the details become clearer. My feeling is that as long as the h700 and h850 centers continue to be modeled to close off comfortably south of LI, we'll be majority snow. Looking forward to seeing what the models show after the special recon flight data is integrated tomorrow. Upton is playing it rather warm for CT...even said they don't see warning criteria snows as being likely inland. I suppose they'd warn on the snow/sleet combo...but several models spitting out 6"+ even after a wintry mix. Of course to be fair, Its really a tough forecast right now. I could definitely see the immediate shoreline torching and getting plain rain for awhile before going back to snow. But yeah, based on current output...I don't see temps getting above freezing once you get 5-10 miles inland away from the shoreline. Perhaps they are thinking this one trends a little more NW before all is said and done. But they've been pretty aggressive so far this winter, maybe they felt it was time to balance things out and get back to their usual conservative selves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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