MJHUB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WHDH-7's snow totals map for 4pm: how does SW CT get 5-10? map is flawed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I thought I was in the Twilight Zone when I was arguing with some posters who think he's an awesome met. I said he's great with patterns, but overhypes storms and they asked me for "proof." I do think that this storm can deliver your second HECS and one thing I've noticed about JB is he does much better in snowier/colder patterns than he does in others. Noooo, disagree vehemently. Major, not historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not sure where the specific pics are from (what town, etc), but this was in Quebec and this season was the second snowiest winter on record. Here is what I could find on it: The most remarkable amount of snow was in Ottawa, where an excess of 432 cm fell just 12 cm short of the venerable snow record of 444.6 cm in 1970-1971 – an event often regarded as a 1,000-year occurrence. Ottawans did not see bare ground for 143 consecutive days, from November 21 to April 11. This was the longest stretch on record and four days longer than the string of 139 snow cover days in 1970-1971. Less than a week before the first day of spring, snow on the ground in the nation's capital was at the season's deepest – 87 cm. During one particularly brutal four-day stretch in March, the city was pummelled with 73.2 cm. And while the snowiest month in history occurred in 1970-1971 (159.5 cm in February), Ottawa did claim its second- and third-snowiest months ever this winter (121.0 cm in December and 113.4 in March). Montreal's 371.4 cm also came close to breaking its 1970-1971 record of 383.3 cm and – like Ottawa – could claim December and March as its second- and third-snowiest months (respectively) on record. I thought Ottawa's peak depth would have been more like 50" that winter....not 34"...WTF. Can't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 how does SW CT get 5-10? map is flawed What's wrong with that? Nothing. 12z GFS gave me 11.1 thank you. 5-10 is a very nice forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Upton,NY 403 pm est mon jan 24 2011 CONCERNS ABOUT MODEL GUIDANCE ARE HIGH DUE TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE PCPN BEING GENERATED THROUGH MODEL PARAMETRIZATION. THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND THE DYNAMIC BUILDING OF THE DOWN STREAM RIDGE ARE AFFECTED. THUS...WHILE MODEL TRACK IS CLUSTERED NICELY...HUMAN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE ACTUAL TRACK. THE NAM IS AN INTERESTING EXAMPLE...AND WHILE BEING DISCARDED FOR FORECAST INTEGRATION...IT IS RIGHT OF THE ENSEMBLED TRACK AND PRODUCES ZERO QPF. HAVE CONTINUED BASICALLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEAR. NOTE THAT NOAA WINTER RECONNAISSANCE IS BEING FLOWN FOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS WILL GET INCLUDED INTO TOMORROW`S 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THUS EXPECT THINGS TO BECOME CLEARER TOMORROW. NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AS WERE STILL OVER 48 HOURS FROM POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA. PTYPE IS A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A WARM NOSE ALOFT. EVEN INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MIXED PCPN. A WINTRY MIX APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINATE TYPE WITH MORE RAIN TO THE EAST. OF COURSE WITH TRACK AND QPF AMOUNT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...ANY SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR THAT LIKELIHOOD OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS LOW...EVEN INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Noooo, disagree vehemently. Major, not historic. HECS gets thrown about a little too liberally these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i just hope here in cromwell we don't get rain You have made 5 posts today and all of them have said rain..There is no rain coming anywhere in CT.. WTF dude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I thought I was in the Twilight Zone when I was arguing with some posters who think he's an awesome met. I said he's great with patterns, but overhypes storms and they asked me for "proof." I do think that this storm can deliver your second HECS and one thing I've noticed about JB is he does much better in snowier/colder patterns than he does in others. This is HECS potential, but not 1978 potential..nothing does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 HECS gets thrown about a little too liberally these days. That it does. It is the new KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You have made 5 posts today and all of them have said rain..There is no rain coming anywhere in CT.. WTF dude? I was thinking exactly that myself. (needs to be on a 5 post a day diet, methinks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 HECS gets thrown about a little too liberally these days. Well, I'd call 18" of snow in the Boston area historic and this has that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I know this is slightly off-topic, but took a drive yesterday out west. We drove from Cambridge, over to Brookline, through Coolidge Corner, then out to Wellesley, Newton and into Natick/Sherborn. I was amazed how much of a difference between Cambridge and Brookline. Seemed like a pretty palatable difference in snowpack. My end point was Sherborn and the snowpack out there was as deep as I can remember. The only thing that seems similar (excluding my 4 years in Syracuse for school) to this is the 95-96 winter. Everyone seems to be buzzing about where to put the snow if it snows anymore (which looks increasingly likely) -- reminds me a lot of that winter. Can't wait to see what BOX has to say about this next storm. I drove Boston->Brookline->Newton->Needham->Dedham to Norwood yesterday. Beautiful, deep satisfying snowpack everywhere. Deep, deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I thought I was in the Twilight Zone when I was arguing with some posters who think he's an awesome met. I said he's great with patterns, but overhypes storms and they asked me for "proof." I do think that this storm can deliver your second HECS and one thing I've noticed about JB is he does much better in snowier/colder patterns than he does in others. Even broken clocks are correct twice a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is HECS potential, but not 1978 potential..nothing does. Just the coastal impacts, winds, lunar tides etc set 1978 apart from most other storms and their potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bastardi just said 18-24" for Boston, rivaling '78 for winds everything is back to normal Coome on dude..people are going to believe he really said that and he did not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 how does SW CT get 5-10? map is flawed Its a fine call, your 1-5" is the flaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, I'd call 18" of now in the Boston area historic and this has that potential. Hey Ray, not disagreeing with the potential for Boston but doesn't HECS imply a greater portion of the E. Coast (major cities etc) is affected. I might be wrong on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Coome on dude..people are going to believe he really said that and he did not oh lord forgive me carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, I'd call 18" of now in the Boston area historic and this has that potential. If you want to call it a very localized HECS, but not one for a sizable area. Historic conditions and totals for a given spot, perhaps not storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'll let verification do the talking...I muddeled this thread enough rebutting your whiff concerns right before the 00z GFS caved. BM....maybe a hair inside. I've said for two days a track near the BM plus/minus 30 miles. Yesterday you took some of what Scott said out of context, you've done it now every 6-12 hours with me. You were all over the place with the 12z Euro muddling that as many others have said and that's fine it's your choice, but "whiff" concerns...I've said all along I favor the extreme tracks versus the "cape cod/ack" specials of this winter. --- Anyway, the RGEM has the same split moisture shield, not all that different from the 18z NAM. There's a huge dryslot up to Hatteras that's gradually being wiped out, and a dryer punch up into NJ with the main moisture shield offshore but wrapping as the entire thing develops/washes out the dry slot offshore. Different, yes, but not tremendously so. I don't think there's any doubt it's also hinting (maybe feedback too who knows) at some intereference from small vorticies coming out of the Gulf well east of the main system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was thinking exactly that myself. (needs to be on a 5 post a day diet, methinks) They've been deleting our all day..and let that stuff fly. Don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its a fine call, your 1-5" is the flaw I just went 6-12 in SW Conn. Perhaps a little bullish, but I agree with that forecaster's 5-10 perfectly fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey Ray, not disagreeing with the potential for Boston but doesn't HECS imply a greater portion of the E. Coast (major cities etc) is affected. I might be wrong on that though. Well, it won't be high on the NESIS scale, but I think it could go HECS for a good chunk of SNE, though MECS level is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 oh lord forgive me carry on. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I thought Ottawa's peak depth would have been more like 50" that winter....not 34"...WTF. Can't be right. EPIC BLOWTORCH......janaury 2008 (you've seen Will's pictures i am sure), melted off 90% of the nearly 3 feet depth as well as the associated snowpiles that come with it. and i mean, it was total devestation. before that we had the Grinch Xmas storm.......so in mid-jan, we started from scratch after 75 inches down. like totally scratch. :axe: that was the difference between us an quebec city that year, in terms of depth ironically Ray, with all that snow, it ended up being one of the biggest regret seasons ever.... 1. we fell short of snowfall records by as close as 4 inches 2 . what could have been without the torch thats why for me, 92-93 is still the greatest winter ever around these parts. (1970-71 is actually the greatest statistically) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You have made 5 posts today and all of them have said rain..There is no rain coming anywhere in CT.. WTF dude? Kev, I'm packing up the tools here 2k. What's it look like for up here? CanSt catch up until later.TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I've said for two days a track near the BM plus/minus 30 miles. Yesterday you took some of what Scott said out of context, you've done it now every 6-12 hours with me. You were all over the place with the 12z Euro muddling that as many others have said and that's fine it's your choice, but "whiff" concerns...I've said all along I favor the extreme tracks versus the "cape cod/ack" specials of this winter. --- Anyway, the RGEM has the same split moisture shield, not all that different from the 18z NAM. There's a huge dryslot up to Hatteras, and a dryer punch up into NJ with the main moisture shield offshore but wrapping. Different, yes, but not tremendously so. I don't think there's any doubt it's also hinting (maybe feedback too who knows) at some intereference from small vorticies coming out of the Gulf well east of the main system. That wasn't me....it was Steve. I muddled nothing up; differences were trivial between the 00z run and 12z....the issue is that trying to extraploate early on makes it difficult to discern subtle differences. You're simply wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Kev, I'm packing up the tools here 2k. What's it look like for up here? CanSt catch up until later.TIA You're in a good spot for 18-24 would be my call for the east slopes..sharper cutoff to the west of ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I thought I was in the Twilight Zone when I was arguing with some posters who think he's an awesome met. I said he's great with patterns, but overhypes storms and they asked me for "proof." I do think that this storm can deliver your second third HECS and one thing I've noticed about JB is he does much better in snowier/colder patterns than he does in others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 EPIC BLOWTORCH......janaury 2008 (you've seen Will's pictures i am sure), melted off 90% of the nearly 3 feet depth as well as the associated snowpiles that come with it. and i mean, it was total devestation. before that we had the Grinch Xmas storm.......so in mid-jan, we started from scratch after 75 inches down. like totally scratch. :axe: that was the difference between us an quebec city that year, in terms of depth ironically Ray, with all that snow, it ended up being one of the biggest regret seasons ever.... 1. we fell short of snowfall records by as close as 4 inches 2 . what could have been without the torch thats why for me, 92-93 is still the greatest winter ever around these parts. (1970-71 is actually the greatest statistically) I thought Ottawa made out better than Quebec....wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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