SouthCoastMA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here's the GGEM OP vs the GGEM ensembles fwiw. Wow.. looks like some spread south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The Eta and SREF has an interesting solution for those of us near the CT shoreline. Kind of brings this storm up in two waves. The first wave is a snow-sleet-fzra deal and out before any plain rain taint. By the time the second round comes through thicknesses have crashed and we're cold enough for snow. Really minimizes the damage should surface temps go above freezing for a time. Of course...things continue to look great for the interior...as long as you can stomach the threat for pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not to go out on a tangent. But here's more pics from that storm: http://super-ligue.com/tempete.htm Very cool. 2007-08 FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Close the door, remove your pants, and have a seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM is outside the 42ish witching hour for sure. But I will say it again, no matter how funky it's been at 5h in the last month or so, it's mostly had the right idea with low tracks and QPF. The solution we end up seeing will likely be between the Euro OP and something like this run is my thought. I'm not that worried about a track near ACK now as much. I don't think the RGEM was heading for a run all that different, and the ARW and NMM both seemingly wanted to fire an offshore low that helped to muddle things just enough. The m/l track is now not really any different than the consensus and hopefully as we approach the higher resolution of the NAM will allow it to better forecast the ultimate track like it's done so many times this year. It's finally getting into the game and now hopefully tonight all the meso models will be more useful. Yeah starting to get a relatively good consensus on the ML low track. The issue is its orientation and the evolution of the various vort maxes in and around the low (right up your alley ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's says "How ya doin, SE MA!". That's a plastering of snow for our area per the 18z NAM. If only, was on accu formus for a sec and it was lord of the fly's over there inland people were out for blood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Worth while tangent. Holy crap. Is there a point where there's just too much snow? no it was a great year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLove Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bastardi just said 18-24" for Boston, rivaling '78 for winds everything is back to normal I think he gets some sort of weird arousal by hyping up weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Where in Canada is that and how much fell from that storm? I am sure there was snow on the ground before. Not sure where the specific pics are from (what town, etc), but this was in Quebec and this season was the second snowiest winter on record. Here is what I could find on it: The most remarkable amount of snow was in Ottawa, where an excess of 432 cm fell just 12 cm short of the venerable snow record of 444.6 cm in 1970-1971 – an event often regarded as a 1,000-year occurrence. Ottawans did not see bare ground for 143 consecutive days, from November 21 to April 11. This was the longest stretch on record and four days longer than the string of 139 snow cover days in 1970-1971. Less than a week before the first day of spring, snow on the ground in the nation's capital was at the season's deepest – 87 cm. During one particularly brutal four-day stretch in March, the city was pummelled with 73.2 cm. And while the snowiest month in history occurred in 1970-1971 (159.5 cm in February), Ottawa did claim its second- and third-snowiest months ever this winter (121.0 cm in December and 113.4 in March). Montreal's 371.4 cm also came close to breaking its 1970-1971 record of 383.3 cm and – like Ottawa – could claim December and March as its second- and third-snowiest months (respectively) on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not sure where the specific pics are from (what town, etc), but this was in Quebec and this season was the second snowiest winter on record. Here is what I could find on it: The most remarkable amount of snow was in Ottawa, where an excess of 432 cm fell just 12 cm short of the venerable snow record of 444.6 cm in 1970-1971 – an event often regarded as a 1,000-year occurrence. Ottawans did not see bare ground for 143 consecutive days, from November 21 to April 11. This was the longest stretch on record and four days longer than the string of 139 snow cover days in 1970-1971. Less than a week before the first day of spring, snow on the ground in the nation's capital was at the season's deepest – 87 cm. During one particularly brutal four-day stretch in March, the city was pummelled with 73.2 cm. And while the snowiest month in history occurred in 1970-1971 (159.5 cm in February), Ottawa did claim its second- and third-snowiest months ever this winter (121.0 cm in December and 113.4 in March). Montreal's 371.4 cm also came close to breaking its 1970-1971 record of 383.3 cm and – like Ottawa – could claim December and March as its second- and third-snowiest months (respectively) on record. Here's the whole article: http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=B2EA41B2-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Where in Canada is that and how much fell from that storm? I am sure there was snow on the ground before. thats quebec city thats after the march 2008 HOVS which crushed us also with 2 feet. thats all the snow that was on the ground cumulatively up tll that point. earlier in the thread i had said that snow did not melt there until early june. now you see why. they had a record 506cm of snow (200 inches of snow) by contrast, my second home, in ottawa had a relatively meager 171 inches. perhaps 150 is in your cards this year??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well the 18z NAM was definitely a jump toward the global consensus, but still a bit SE verbatim. It will likely continue to come NW from here on out I would think given its inside of 60h now to the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think there's still some thought that there will be a split shield of precip for a time and I think that's what you are seeing on the SREF's. Not a huge fan of the SREF, I think this 18z run of the NAM should be framed. It's obviously still not right though as I get buried but I'll be interested in hearing the arguments of why it's not right. Like others have told you 2-3 days, it's going btween the BM and the cape because that is where all ensembles have been consitently pinned for days. Will, I wonder if the clipper trending s has anything to do with this slipping s a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah starting to get a relatively good consensus on the ML low track. The issue is its orientation and the evolution of the various vort maxes in and around the low (right up your alley ) Sick munchkin....this one is all yours. Disruptive offshore vorticies have been a fixture of many systems with southern involvement in the last two years. If at 0z the models all have the basic idea at m/l but the mesos are still se...then what? Let's see what else shakes at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Like others have told you 2-3 days, it's going btween the BM and the cape because that is where all ensembles have been consitently pinned for days. Will, I wonder if the clipper trending s has anything to do with this slipping s a bit.... Because the ensembles euro included have had a stellar track record at this range with surface tracks? I guess maybe they have plus/minus 50/75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I know this is slightly off-topic, but took a drive yesterday out west. We drove from Cambridge, over to Brookline, through Coolidge Corner, then out to Wellesley, Newton and into Natick/Sherborn. I was amazed how much of a difference between Cambridge and Brookline. Seemed like a pretty palatable difference in snowpack. My end point was Sherborn and the snowpack out there was as deep as I can remember. The only thing that seems similar (excluding my 4 years in Syracuse for school) to this is the 95-96 winter. Everyone seems to be buzzing about where to put the snow if it snows anymore (which looks increasingly likely) -- reminds me a lot of that winter. Can't wait to see what BOX has to say about this next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah on the Euro I'm thinking sleet for Boston for at least a period of time. i just hope here in cromwell we don't get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bastardi just said 18-24" for Boston, rivaling '78 for winds everything is back to normal What an irresponsibe dolt. This is showing a tendency to slow to a crawl, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Because the ensembles euro included have had a stellar track record at this range with surface tracks? I guess maybe they have plus/minus 50/75 miles. There has been a definite theme this year of models slipping southeast in the 72 to 96 hour range only to come back northwest in the last 36 hours or so. I believe even the Euro and it's ensembles have not always sniffed out that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Because the ensembles euro included have had a stellar track record at this range with surface tracks? I guess maybe they have plus/minus 50/75 miles. I'll let verification do the talking...I muddeled this thread enough rebutting your whiff concerns right before the 00z GFS caved. BM....maybe a hair inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What an irresponsibe dolt. This is showing a tendency to slow to a crawl, though. It'll be windy but it's not even going to be near Boxing Day. If true that was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What an irresponsibe dolt. This is showing a tendency to slow to a crawl, though. why the heck would this storm rival 78 for winds? It's not even close lol. It's sad that any reasonable met or even weenie could see that...but in order to get ratings he has to say bs like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WHDH-7's snow totals map for 4pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There has been a definite theme this year of models slipping southeast in the 72 to 96 hour range only to come back northwest in the last 36 hours or so. I believe even the Euro and it's ensembles have not always sniffed out that trend. Right....I don't think we are trying to figure out there the consensus will lie 36 hrs out, but where it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 [where did you see bastardi say that...I was just at his site and I see nothing new from the last 8 hours when he was sayig mix in boston? Has he updated somewhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z RGEM is more consolidated with a 1000 mb low of the coast of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 [where did you see bastardi say that...I was just at his site and I see nothing new from the last 8 hours when he was sayig mix in boston? Has he updated somewhere else? Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What an irresponsibe dolt. This is showing a tendency to slow to a crawl, though. I thought I was in the Twilight Zone when I was arguing with some posters who think he's an awesome met. I said he's great with patterns, but overhypes storms and they asked me for "proof." I do think that this storm can deliver your second HECS and one thing I've noticed about JB is he does much better in snowier/colder patterns than he does in others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Right....I don't think we are trying to figure out there the consensus will lie 36 hrs out, but where it will verify. yes for sure...generally it's prudent to lean somewhat northwest of consensus at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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