Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was looking at erin's map....as it turns out the 15z's are even a litlte touchier. That's some significant spread. 42h NAM is now in line with the RGEM in terms of ML placement... wxwatcher91 is right, something is off at init each time. I'd expect that to shake itself out soon enough. I'm interested in how the off hour GFS handles things and if that has an error. As long as you aren't in Lordship you should be good... I'm not we are looking good! The pinging will be tough but the payoff after will put me over 50 for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM is fine. There still seems to be a struggle with mid level drying mucking up the initial thrust of precip but it's developing a nice precip shield later in the run. IT came to the reasonable side this run, and was very close to the 48h RGEM at 42. Hopefully it will be a useful tool here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BOSTON (CBS) – The forecast models seem to be coming into a bit more of an agreement on a nor’easter event for all of southern New England Wednesday night into Thursday. While some details still need to be worked out and the exact track is still somewhat of an unknown, it appears we will be in for yet another significant blow from Mother Nature this winter. TIMELINE Start time would be Wednesday afternoon and it would be an all snow event for most of the interior, north and west of Boston. There will likely be some mixing with rain in southeastern Massachusetts and along the immediate coastline, perhaps as far north as Boston. The peak of the storm will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning, something like 10 p.m.-to-10 a.m. Overnight, the rain-snow line will likely collapse back southward switching everyone who was getting rain over to snow. AMOUNTS The heaviest accumulation looks to be from Boston north and west (into Middlesex and Worcester Counties as well as southern New Hampshire). In these locations we could easily see a foot of snow, perhaps several inches more than that. Snow accumulation will happen later over southeastern Mass. and Cape Cod, but several inches are possible down there as well on Thursday morning. Strong northeast winds will also be a factor, especially along the coast and on the Cape and we will have to keep a close eye on the high tide at 5 a.m. Thursday for minor to moderate coastal flooding. Thankfully the tides are not too astronomically high. There is still plenty of time for wobbles in the track, but, as of right now, it appears we are in for another big one. Print Share 19 From Wbz in Boston !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, The Nam is ever so slowly coming NW some........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol NAM semi-stalls this thing between hr54 and 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow the NAM is awesome for the south coast and CC.... I think one can start to take it a little more seriously now that the last 3 runs have been fairly consistent and closer to the globals (still east though and colder). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd expect that to shake itself out soon enough. I'm interested in how the off hour GFS handles things and if that has an error. I'm not we are looking good! The pinging will be tough but the payoff after will put me over 50 for the year. I think there's still some thought that there will be a split shield of precip for a time and I think that's what you are seeing on the SREF's. Not a huge fan of the SREF, I think this 18z run of the NAM should be framed. It's obviously still not right though as I get buried but I'll be interested in hearing the arguments of why it's not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol NAM semi-stalls this thing between hr54 and 60 lol, mid atlantic crushed - toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The blue dashed line is the 850 0C line, not the yellow line. The yello wline is the 850-700 thickness where you might start thinking about sleet. But sleet is likely a bit SE of that line in this setup . Man, the yellow line sits aroun Lowell\Nashua for a good deal of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol NAM semi-stalls this thing between hr54 and 60 The NAM has been showing something like that the last three runs.. it has the leading PVA that causes the low to be strung out initially but then as the main S/W catches up the low is tugged back and it stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 nam is really starting to look alot better by 00z it will crush us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Where in Canada is that and how much fell from that storm? I am sure there was snow on the ground before. I don't recall the details of that storm, something that was passed on to me some time ago. I am sure there was snow on the ground before that, but based on some of the pics, there was alot of snow in that last snow storm. I'll see if I can find some details on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I wish the NAM was right but it sure as hell won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think there's still some thought that there will be a split shield of precip for a time and I think that's what you are seeing on the SREF's. Not a huge fan of the SREF, I think this 18z run of the NAM should be framed. It's obviously still not right though as I get buried but I'll be interested in hearing the arguments of why it's not right. I love them in specific ways...the QPF is not one of them. It's just coming into the better times for it, ~60 hours. At least you would and I would get all snow too, go us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I wish the NAM was right but it sure as hell won't be. It's says "How ya doin, SE MA!". That's a plastering of snow for our area per the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 They'd probably get a little....but the way the structure of this storm is set up, its more of a latitude thing....which is a bit strange for a coastal, but it can happen. They turn the mid-levels out of the east in time to prevent as much sleet taint. In the end, you might end up being very similar, but its possible for you to get more sleet than them. What a dream come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM has been showing something like that the last three runs.. it has the leading PVA that causes the low to be strung out initially but then as the main S/W catches up the low is tugged back and it stalls. I wish the NAM was right but it sure as hell won't be. NAM is outside the 42ish witching hour for sure. But I will say it again, no matter how funky it's been at 5h in the last month or so, it's mostly had the right idea with low tracks and QPF. The solution we end up seeing will likely be between the Euro OP and something like this run is my thought. I'm not that worried about a track near ACK now as much. I don't think the RGEM was heading for a run all that different, and the ARW and NMM both seemingly wanted to fire an offshore low that helped to muddle things just enough. The m/l track is now not really any different than the consensus and hopefully as we approach the higher resolution of the NAM will allow it to better forecast the ultimate track like it's done so many times this year. It's finally getting into the game and now hopefully tonight all the meso models will be more useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's says "How ya doin, SE MA!". That's a plastering of snow for our area per the 18z NAM. Pretty sure we have over 100" of snow per various model outputs this winter under 66hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 A wet dream come true. Good for you . . . I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pretty sure we have over 100" of snow per various model outputs this winter under 66hours. I'll be 1/2 way there after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'll be 1/2 way there after this storm. RGEM ought to be interesting at 18z. GFS....blah....not sure it's come close to nailing a track yet at this range. Burbank special saves SE MA on this fun run...but let's face it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man, the yellow line sits aroun Lowell\Nashua for a good deal of the event. I was comparing the soundings to where the GFS showed the 850-700 line, and the taint like was probably 15-20 miles se of that. I think you're ok, if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 RGEM ought to be interesting at 18z. GFS....blah....not sure it's come close to nailing a track yet at this range. Burbank special saves SE MA on this fun run...but let's face it.... If this run verifies, his name will live in infamy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can't believe some of the hype I'm hearing from various media. The thing is still 60 hours out. That is too much time available for changes to be saying right now that this will rival 1978 etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can't believe some of the hype I'm hearing from various media. The thing is still 60 hours out. That is too much time available for changes to be saying right now that this will rival 1978 etc. who the hell said that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If this run verifies, his name will live in infamy. Here's the GGEM OP vs the GGEM ensembles fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can't believe some of the hype I'm hearing from various media. The thing is still 60 hours out. That is too much time available for changes to be saying right now that this will rival 1978 etc. Who is saying that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bastardi just said 18-24" for Boston, rivaling '78 for winds everything is back to normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 FYI...Channel 5's map from thebostonchannel.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Who is saying that? who said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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