CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro 850-700 critical thicknesses are a little further south, but it hangs out very near KBED-KORH and into NW CT before collapsing se. Yeah euro to me looks like a 6-12 kinda deal for northern CT to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I haven't seen Euro QPF for BOS anywhere. Can someone throw me a bone? And then translate it it to approximate total snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 About an inch...there could be 2" somewhere N of the pike or into S NH. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah euro to me looks like a 6-12 kinda deal for northern CT to BOS More north of Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro 850-700 critical thicknesses are a little further south, but it hangs out very near KBED-KORH and into NW CT before collapsing se. That's the 1540m thickness right? I think one good piece of news in this setup is that on the soundings, the SN/IP line has been just a shade SE of that line...if the warming in the layer is absorbed a lot more by the region up by 7h vs 8h-85h, then sometimes the thickness can get to like 1545 or even 1550 before pellets start mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, the EURO peeked my interest a little. I'm starting to think that we see more IP/Frz Rain than currently anticipated, since the ocean temps are now in the 30's..I don't think we are going to torch much in the lower levels. But we still need this to tick about 15-30 miles further southeast for me to feel somewhat confident. Seems like the theme of this winter though: Our area getting that extra 15-30 miles but in the wrong direction (NW). Lets hope this is the one that bucks the trend. under "normal" circumstances this set-up would be OK for most of this region. we would likely mix...outer cape would change over or something...but overall it would be a decent event i think. the problem leading into this for our area is we completely lose our low level cold so not only do we fight mid-level warming but we have a quickly advancing marine layer. so instead of getting that nice front up thump, then mix/rain, then back to snow...we'll be relying on transitioning over to frozen during the second half of the event. sometimes that can work out OK...but it can be tricky. the euro pushes the mid-level warmth pretty darn far north for our liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's the 1540m thickness right? I think one good piece of news in this setup is that on the soundings, the SN/IP line has been just a shade SE of that line...if the warming in the layer is absorbed a lot more by the region up by 7h vs 8h-85h, then sometimes the thickness can get to like 1545 or even 1550 before pellets start mixing. Good post. On the GFS BUFKIT soundings HFD and BDL are snow with room to spare. Almost 2c of room to spare with a deep isothermal layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's the 1540m thickness right? I think one good piece of news in this setup is that on the soundings, the SN/IP line has been just a shade SE of that line...if the warming in the layer is absorbed a lot more by the region up by 7h vs 8h-85h, then sometimes the thickness can get to like 1545 or even 1550 before pellets start mixing. Yeah that's what the GFS was doing. It probably was like 1545 in BOS, despite the 850-700 line being further north. I was happy it came south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah that's what the GFS was doing. It probably was like 1545 in BOS, despite the 850-700 line being further north. I was happy it came south. The warming was spread out on the soundings too, we didn't have that warm wedge knifing into the area at like 850 or 800mb. It was an overall "warm" sounding, but below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 what's the feeling on BOS -- how much do we get pelted vs. dumped on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah that's what the GFS was doing. It probably was like 1545 in BOS, despite the 850-700 line being further north. I was happy it came south. This is definitely looking like a "soundings" event. We will probably be sweating the soundings until start time. But as noted earlier, the location of the mid-level centers suggest that warm air intrusion (at least enough to cause IP) would likely not be a long term thing if things stay roughly the same and the low doesn't track significantly W of current guidance. It wraps a lot of warm air west down in the M.A. and then is it collapsed back E, that "bubble" of warm air tries to clip us but doesn't look like anything long lasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We're going to beat that easily if we manage 15+ with this storm and we manage 4-8 this weekend and if we get another major storm after that, this snowpack will be unreal. No torches in sight either depends dude dont get your hopes up too much just yet, its too early in the season, a better assessment can be made in late feb/early march....but you're going in the right direction. theres a lot of winter left and a couple rain events can really just bring you back fast, thats what happened in 07-08 to us with that epic january blowtorch, else my snowpiles would have lasted till mid-june for sure. ......it only takes one disaster. and theres a long way to go in winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah euro to me looks like a 6-12 kinda deal for northern CT to BOS your thoughts on the Western CT shoreline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Preliminary sketch. Odds are I'll end up having to cut back in western New England. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Preliminary sketch. Odds are I'll end up having to shift the back edge east. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM will not only cave, but signal a change to rain for most of New England by its 12z run tomorrow. And it will pull all other models into that camp by 00z tomorrow night. Do you like that? Do you like what you just made me say?! Certainly has happened before. Everything seems to be gravitating against that, would be a major coup for the NAM... we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Preliminary sketch. Odds are I'll end up having to shift the back edge east. We'll see. Oh thats nice, think cleveland family guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I go to school in Beverly, MA but am unfamiliar with the area in snow storm terms. Can anyone from the area or know anything about the area tell me how often we get a mix during big snowstorms like these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here are the weenie maps. A few things to note. Solid Black lines = 500mb Height Lines Solid white lines = Sea Level MSLP Dashed lines = 850MB temps. Blue being the 0C isotherm Light grey line = surface 0CF isotherm Solid yellow line = the 850-700 1540 line. Solid Red = 1000-850 1300 line. Blue shading = low level RH (1000-850 or so) Green shading = 850-500 RH. Steve can put this in an animated GIF if he wants. Or whoever wants to tackle it. Here it is from 03z Thursday until 15z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Preliminary sketch. Odds are I'll end up having to shift the back edge east. We'll see. Can you explain your reasoning behind leaving out the majority of Essex County Mass out of the 12-18 while BOS is in it? No big deal, just a map, but I was wondering your thinking behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WOw Scooter..heavy heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Preliminary sketch. Odds are I'll end up having to cut back in western New England. We'll see. Looks great Sam, Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow Scott, those look just about perfect for a good chunk of SNE for the best deformation. Mid-level RH looks fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WOw Scooter..heavy heavy snow Get your weenie sleet gear ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow Scott, those look just about perfect for a good chunk of SNE for the best deformation. Mid-level RH looks fantastic. Dude, look how moist that layer is. I haven't seen it like that for any storm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here are the weenie maps. A few things to note. Solid Black lines = 500mb Height Lines Solid white lines = Sea Level MSLP Dashed lines = 850MB temps. Blue being the 0C isotherm Light grey line = surface 0CF isotherm Solid yellow line = the 850-700 1540 line. Solid Red = 1000-850 1300 line. Blue shading = low level RH (1000-850 or so) Green shading = 850-500 RH. ] looks like the surface 0Cf line is from ORH ne toward 495 scott or am i reading that right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 that looks like a beating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow Scott, those look just about perfect for a good chunk of SNE for the best deformation. Mid-level RH looks fantastic. Sleet, b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like the 0c line is from ORH ne toward 495 scott or am i reading that right Thinkin the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like the 0c line is from ORH ne toward 495 scott or am i reading that right The blue dashed line is the 850 0C line, not the yellow line. The yello wline is the 850-700 thickness where you might start thinking about sleet. But sleet is likely a bit SE of that line in this setup . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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