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January 26-27 Snowstorm Disco III


Baroclinic Zone

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That could be interesting

BIrving I saw your quote about snowpacks.. our snowpack is rediculous here! Of we do end up getting another 1-2' of snow, Manchester will seriously have to consider hiring employees to demolish the snowbanks.. it is extremely difficult to turn onto roads safely with these snowbanks... anyway.. I love where we sit with this storm.. looks like a long duration event

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I think there could be at least some sleet away fron the coast and south of I-84/west of I-91. If the GFS is right, it's a colder storm. Low level thicknesses get very marginal along the CT shoreline too. If the euro solution were to verify, I think you can trim back the sleet a bit further south, but srn CT could very well be a sleet fest. Hopefully the mid levels can tick a degree or so colder with each run, but I think the risk is coming closer by about 40 miles or so. I hope not, but I could see that. NW CT would pretty much be snow.

What about dynamics? yikes.pngtongue.gif

Thanks for your thoughts, a snow to sleet to snow scenario wouldn't be the end of the world either.

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I think there could be at least some sleet away fron the coast and south of I-84/west of I-91. If the GFS is right, it's a colder storm. Low level thicknesses get very marginal along the CT shoreline too. If the euro solution were to verify, I think you can trim back the sleet a bit further south, but srn CT could very well be a sleet fest. Hopefully the mid levels can tick a degree or so colder with each run, but I think the risk is coming closer by about 40 miles or so. I hope not, but I could see that. NW CT would pretty much be snow.

It's a funky storm. Lots of moving parts.

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What about dynamics? yikes.pngtongue.gif

Thanks for your thoughts, a snow to sleet to snow scenario wouldn't be the end of the world either.

Well that's the thing. It looks like VVs will be through the roof. I have a hard time seeing a lot of IP in places like ORH and BED with a BM track. Now if it moves up to a position east of ctrl NJ and then moves east...then yeah I could see it swinging some warm air in near and above 850 mb or so in places like that.

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u guys can't PM each other to coordinate and make the transition seamless? No big deal...just something I've noticed happening with these thread transitions.

We need more full time moderators, some new blood too. These threads move way too fast for 2 or 3 people. Jmho more the merrier.

Sea smoke over cape cod bay this morning

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Well that's the thing. It looks like VVs will be through the roof. I have a hard time seeing a lot of IP in places like ORH and BED with a BM track. Now if it moves up to a position east of ctrl NJ and then moves east...then yeah I could see it swinging some warm air in near and above 850 mb or so in places like that.

Interior, elevation crusher?

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BIrving I saw your quote about snowpacks.. our snowpack is rediculous here! Of we do end up getting another 1-2' of snow, Manchester will seriously have to consider hiring employees to demolish the snowbanks.. it is extremely difficult to turn onto roads safely with these snowbanks... anyway.. I love where we sit with this storm.. looks like a long duration event

You talking explosives? LOL

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Messenger how are you feeling about your area? Or at least TAN/EWB/PYM Bold enough to make a call at this point?

First sorry guys that I cannot multi reply. The ipb app doesn't allow it on the cell best I can tell? I also can't seem to do it from a straight mobil browser.

Birving, not comfortable at all yet. Srefs east and I'd think great snow, but so many times at this range the Srefs did not get followed by the bulk of the models a few minutes later. Benchmark track I think but I'm not certain....bm plus minus 30-40 miles.

Edit: i should add at this range the euro gfs and ensembles have had a benchmark track many times only to fail nw. Very hard to ignore this time that it appears to be a similar trend.

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BIrving I saw your quote about snowpacks.. our snowpack is rediculous here! Of we do end up getting another 1-2' of snow, Manchester will seriously have to consider hiring employees to demolish the snowbanks.. it is extremely difficult to turn onto roads safely with these snowbanks... anyway.. I love where we sit with this storm.. looks like a long duration event

You mean the National Guard? lol I think the city of Manchester has hired it's quota of taxpayers monies towards snow removal, however politics have changed there a bit...

Anyway, we'll be okay with 5-10" of snow. SREFS mean looks like a 4-6" , max 8" for us, fwiw

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Just got in the office and took a quick look at the 00/F072 CIPS Analog Guidance...and feel this is a very very good analog (19870102) with respect to low-level mass fields and thermal fields. Based on this current fcst I don't think that the snow shield will make it that far into western NY and PA because the mid and upper-level troughs are closer to the sfc and 850-mb lows than in the analog. Regardless...it's a pretty decent match.

Analog: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new&dt=1987010206&HH=-99&map=4panelA

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It would seem that unlike other recent events, an ACK track would cause at least a brieft taint back to this area (128-495 corridor NW of BOS) due to warmer air above the surface. The question is whether it becomes a sleet-fest or a brief deal before the heights crash, etc. Closer to BM probably keeps us all snow, but pattern so far has been for a NW trend which would result in some sleet but still a very nice interior hit.

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Just got in the office and took a quick look at the 00/F072 CIPS Analog Guidance...and feel this is a very very good analog (19870102) with respect to low-level mass fields and thermal fields. Based on this current fcst I don't think that the snow shield will make it that far into western NY and PA because the mid and upper-level troughs are closer to the sfc and 850-mb lows than in the analog. Regardless...it's a pretty decent match.

Analog: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/event.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new&dt=1987010206&HH=-99&map=4panelA

5 h and 8 h are way too far west, Enso, NAO are in different states. Not good IMHO

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