SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone want to join me in being in the camp that 20+ amounts are likely with this in the pounded areas? Raises hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If things work out--and I hope they do--Boston could be at its #2 snowfall figure (October through January) by the end of the month. Even the seemingly untouchable 1995-96 might be within reach of the weekend's light event. Amazing Good thing winter was over Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At the risk of everyone jumping down my throat and saying "don't look at the qpf", what is the thinking on that? At least with the GFS it apperas like a pretty sharp cut-off with essentilaly nothing west of the Hudson. Very different than what ALY was honking about yesterday (granted, that was not based on any GFS guidance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So FWIW...the Coolwx 12z GFS time series (don't know how accurate precip type is as compared to say BUFKIT) have BDL at 1.175" QPF...all snow. HVN and BDR are both well over 1" QPF of snow...with maybe about 0.2" of FZRA. Even has GON with over 1" QPF of snow after about 0.5" of rain. BDL: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=CT&stn=KBDL&model=gfs&time=2011012412&field=prec BDR: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=CT&stn=KBDR&model=gfs&time=2011012412&field=prec HVN: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=CT&stn=KHVN&model=gfs&time=2011012412&field=prec GON: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=CT&stn=KGON&model=gfs&time=2011012412&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM seems to indicate mostly sleet for the first third of the storm south of a HFD-BOS line, however, based on the 1000-700 mb thicknesses. GGEM is an absolute pounding for basically the same areas the GFS was...maybe just a hair more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It would be nice to get one of these to hit northern VT and northern NY... however, if that were to happen everyone further south and east need to change to sleet (ie Valentines Day or St Patty's Day 2007). I am so happy we have upslope to compensate for missing synoptic snows, otherwise I'd probably be jumping off the nearest bridge. I still can't believe how we have an 18-20" snow depth yet have missed just about every single one of these storms. 166" of upslope fluffy on the season at the mountain starting Nov 1st (and that's not counting the 38" that fell in October, so true seasonal total is now over 200"). Roughly 80" so far in town, so it hasn't been that bad of a winter so far even with all the synoptic misses. as much as id like that to happen, its not going to happen. we have a nice pack here as well that we are building at half-speed, so it makes it a lot easier to take. im a man of science myself (not meterorology), so yes, it is somewhat disturbing that using the paradigm 'it snows where it wants to snow' is the most accurate regional forecast technique. once the pattern locks in the winter, it usually follows. negNAO/posNAO/negPNA/posPNA/EPO....whatever......ride it till it breaks down. so were many of our latest winters. 2010-11.....SNE/ENE 2009-10....MA 2007-08...up here, NNE when you think of all the model runs and all the pieces of eenrgy or things that could go wrong and then you look at the end result.......it just wants to snow, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone want to join me in being in the camp that 20+ amounts are likely with this in the pounded areas? Not "likely" now with the mixing threat/issues and probable ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So FWIW...the Coolwx 12z GFS time series (don't know how accurate precip type is as compared to say BUFKIT) have BDL at 1.175" QPF...all snow. HVN and BDR are both well over 1" QPF of snow...with maybe about 0.2" of FZRA. Even has GON with over 1" QPF of snow after about 0.5" of rain. BDL: http://coolwx.com/cg...2412&field=prec BDR: http://coolwx.com/cg...2412&field=prec HVN: http://coolwx.com/cg...2412&field=prec GON: http://coolwx.com/cg...2412&field=prec I can't see the 12z yet for KPVD won't looad on coolwx for me, care to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone want to join me in being in the camp that 20+ amounts are likely with this in the pounded areas? absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So FWIW...the Coolwx 12z GFS time series (don't know how accurate precip type is as compared to say BUFKIT) have BDL at 1.175" QPF...all snow. HVN and BDR are both well over 1" QPF of snow...with maybe about 0.2" of FZRA. Even has GON with over 1" QPF of snow after about 0.5" of rain. BDL: http://coolwx.com/cg...2412&field=prec BDR: http://coolwx.com/cg...2412&field=prec HVN: http://coolwx.com/cg...2412&field=prec GON: http://coolwx.com/cg...2412&field=prec Hah, I was just going to look at those, feeling great! We can take that hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If things work out--and I hope they do--Boston could be at its #2 snowfall figure (October through January) by the end of the month. Even the seemingly untouchable 1995-96 might be within reach of the weekend's light event. :scooter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone want to join me in being in the camp that 20+ amounts are likely with this in the pounded areas? I've got nothing to lose...I'm in...seasonal trend ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not "likely" now with the mixing threat/issues and probable ratios. Very likely, just not south of 84 and for kevin of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 In fairness it was his hunch and best guess. He did say it wasn't etched in stone. I'm one of the ones who defended him last night but his 11pm forecast was a bad one. Are any of the red-taggers interested/working toward doing weather on tv? If any of you guys have any type of on-air skills local tv execs would be willing to listen because the forecasters on this site are far superior to the vast majority of the people on local tv. And if you guys don't think you have the skills, there are ways to acquire them working with voice coaches/drama coaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Rgem ggem IMO aren't all that similar at 48. Looking forward to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So will BDL reach 60" for the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ensembles are smack dab over the BM. Novice question. The BM is offen refered to as the sweet spot for the best track, but I'm not sure if I should be hoping it tracks just inside the BM. I live in Mason NH which is just east of the Monadnocks. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can't see the 12z yet for KPVD won't looad on coolwx for me, care to share. not loading for me either...don't know why. After clicking a few more US sites, I suspect they may get generated in alphabetical order. Give it another few minutes and try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What were those numbers? 68.0" through January 31, 1996 is #1. I believe the current #2 mark is 60.4" in 1947-48. I'll have to check out that latter figure tonight, as I don't have the data with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So will BDL reach 60" for the month? Any thoughts Sam, Or going to wait on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I can't see the 12z yet for KPVD won't looad on coolwx for me, care to share. You said you work in transportation....Will you be plowing, sanding? Public/private? This storm very well may feature a lot more liquid than the previous two big storms this season and PVD/Seekonk is probably on the fence of a significant/plowable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At the risk of everyone jumping down my throat and saying "don't look at the qpf", what is the thinking on that? At least with the GFS it apperas like a pretty sharp cut-off with essentilaly nothing west of the Hudson. Very different than what ALY was honking about yesterday (granted, that was not based on any GFS guidance). it is defintely an extreme cutoff and the euro suggested the same last night. its going to be extra sharp......because the storm is southern stream, it comes north and really runs into the westerlies , resulting in a very sharp cutoff on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm one of the ones who defended him last night but his 11pm forecast was a bad one. Are any of the red-taggers interested/working toward doing weather on tv? If any of you guys have any type of on-air skills local tv execs would be willing to listen because the forecasters on this site are far superior to the vast majority of the people on local tv. And if you guys don't think you have the skills, there are ways to acquire them working with voice coaches/drama coaches. I keep saying..I should be on tv..I just need someone to give me a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Novice question. The BM is offen refered to as the sweet spot for the best track, but I'm not sure if I should be hoping it tracks just inside the BM. I live in Mason NH which is just east of the Monadnocks. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated! You would probably want a track in between ACK and the BM..perhaps a bit closer to ACK, but this storm is not a classic one. I think something in between the BM and ACK would be better for you.This storm should have a rather large circulation and lots of warmer air with it. I think you are in a great spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I keep saying..I should be on tv..I just need someone to give me a chance Geoff Fox is leaving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 there starting to take down snowbanks in my town now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Will and Ray are probably holding hands together right now. They must love where they sit with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 there starting to take down snowbanks in my town now.. in Agawam? Why would that be? I have a feeling we won't be getting tooo much more with all this talk of rain and sleet and warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 im loving where i am too! Will and Ray are probably holding hands together right now. They must love where they sit with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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