Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 he just fired up the NGM and his dot-matrix printer is cranking out charts as we type. Rabbit ears antennae pointed SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 People have been talking about maps showing sleet snow lines. Any chance of getting one of those posted? I know it's early for this stuff, but I'd be interested to see what people are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Based on this and what the Ukmet are showing, I think you are right on the Euro...... The uk and to some extent the gfs have another feature digging down sw of Iowa. Really all three are pretty different at this stage so nothing would surprise me on the euro. At 60 hrs the gfs and nam are on different planets at 5h. The rgem and gfs although not in perfect agreement - namely I think the rgem would turn into a more robust solution - are in much better agreement than the nam. The nam is way slower with the main m/l, trajectory of energy coming into the Dakotas is all different...so many things are different/probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 so per the GFS down here we see a littel front end snow then lots of rain then a littel snow to finish? Yeah, but it could be a good finish for you down there with strong winds and maybe a brief period of s+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 so per the GFS down here we see a littel front end snow then lots of rain then a littel snow to finish? It's not pretty and will likely get worse as we get closer. I would just forget about this one and hope for an inch or two on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 so per the GFS down here we see a littel front end snow then lots of rain then a littel snow to finish? the GFS starts out very mild anywhere in the "non-snow" zone which is probably near or just NW of your area. i'm not sure we'd see a whole lot of front end snow anywhere south of that area. verbatim, off the model, we'd get a little fun at the end. but wrap-around / tail ends can be modeled better than reality works out. edit: should add though that you'd stand a better chance of some accumulating snow later in the game than say my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I wonder if Barry Burbank still likes his OTS solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 My hunch tells me that the ensembles follow the op and will probably be NW as well....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 where do people expect the rain snow line to rear its ugly head, Plymouth,MA east or is the 95 corridor going to get more rain than snow specificlly the BOS-PVD corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 it snows where it wants to snow It would be nice to get one of these to hit northern VT and northern NY... however, if that were to happen everyone further south and east need to change to sleet (ie Valentines Day or St Patty's Day 2007). I am so happy we have upslope to compensate for missing synoptic snows, otherwise I'd probably be jumping off the nearest bridge. I still can't believe how we have an 18-20" snow depth yet have missed just about every single one of these storms. 166" of upslope fluffy on the season at the mountain starting Nov 1st (and that's not counting the 38" that fell in October, so true seasonal total is now over 200"). Roughly 80" so far in town, so it hasn't been that bad of a winter so far even with all the synoptic misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 the GFS starts out very mild anywhere in the "non-snow" zone which is probably near or just NW of your area. i'm not sure we'd see a whole lot of front end snow anywhere south of that area. verbatim, off the model, we'd get a little fun at the end. but wrap-around / tail ends can be modeled better than reality works out. edit: should add though that you'd stand a better chance of some accumulating snow later in the game than say my area. Yeah that is usually how it works....especially for areas "waiting" for the cold air to drain in at the end. The one thing your area has going for it though over an area to the SW in the M.A. though is that the CCB will likely be going nuts by the time its nearing you, whereas further S its still in the infancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It would be nice to get one of these to hit northern VT and northern NY... however, if that were to happen everyone further south and east need to change to sleet (ie Valentines Day or St Patty's Day 2007). I am so happy we have upslope to compensate for missing synoptic snows, otherwise I'd probably be jumping off the nearest bridge. I still can't believe how we have an 18-20" snow depth yet have missed just about every single one of these storms. 166" of upslope fluffy on the season at the mountain starting Nov 1st (and that's not counting the 38" that fell in October, so true seasonal total is now over 200"). Roughly 80" so far in town, so it hasn't been that bad of a winter so far even with all the synoptic misses. I like this. Over here in Lyndonville, we've had about 50" even though every synoptic storm has missed or grazed the NEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 where do people expect the rain snow line to rear its ugly head, Plymouth,MA east or is the 95 corridor going to get more rain than snow specificlly the BOS-PVD corridor? If the GFS works out and 850 temps get near 0 or -1C for a few hours, it will probably be very close to BOS and PVD. That will likely be coastal front dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone seen UKMET? Absolute pounding! If things work out--and I hope they do--Boston could be at its #2 snowfall figure (October through January) by the end of the month. Even the seemingly untouchable 1995-96 might be within reach of the weekend's light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ggem east of 0z. coming in line with a track inside the BM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ensembles are smack dab over the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 My hunch tells me that the ensembles follow the op and will probably be NW as well....... Ggem came pretty far east finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM is an absolute pounding for basically the same areas the GFS was...maybe just a hair more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ensembles are smack dab over the BM. Yes, After being SE at 06z......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well one hour or so until we can lock things up.... I'd like to see the Euro hold serve at the very least and even go a bit east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If things work out--and I hope they do--Boston could be at its #2 snowfall figure (October through January) by the end of the month. Even the seemingly untouchable 1995-96 might be within reach of the weekend's light event. What were those numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah that is usually how it works....especially for areas "waiting" for the cold air to drain in at the end. The one thing your area has going for it though over an area to the SW in the M.A. though is that the CCB will likely be going nuts by the time its nearing you, whereas further S its still in the infancy. yeah i was thinking about that part...the mid-level lows take a pretty nice track for that. who knows. the *current* track would actually be OK from a climo perspective...i.e. it would normally be more of a snow to rain to snow type of deal. this thing just has so much warmth attached to it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ggem came pretty far east finally We are starting to get some consensous it seems other then the Nam that is........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM is an absolute pounding for basically the same areas the GFS was...maybe just a hair more robust. LOL, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The thermal profiles on the 00z ensembles and 12z ensembles are pretty steadfast. Very little change at the surface and 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ensembles are smack dab over the BM. Jmho and I said it at the time I think the op gfs is too far north for what it presents. Ultimately we shall see, but I like the ensemble mean better. It's also got to have some spread as the 1.5" line shifted east while the .5 went west. Kind of interesting to me that the best dynamics/most moisture got bumped east in terms of the 1.2 line... Euro... System isn't done moving around yet and I'm not sold there is a solid trend one way or the other...will wait for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone want to join me in being in the camp that 20+ amounts are likely with this in the pounded areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I wonder if Barry Burbank still likes his OTS solution? In fairness it was his hunch and best guess. He did say it wasn't etched in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS ensemble is faster than the operational too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone want to join me in being in the camp that 20+ amounts are likely with this in the pounded areas? Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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