Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Scott, Thanks for throwing up the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This storm may be a rarity. Not many times do you start out as sleet and change to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:55 PM, CT Rain said: I think BOS gets some sleet too on the Euro. I have to think theres a sneaky warm layer above 850mb. Nice call BTW on 2 inches tomorrow..Looks like it could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:51 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro is like 1.70 or 1.75" of qpf for BOS almost all snow, maybe a few pingers at the height. Close the door, remove your pants, and have a seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So far 12z euro ensembles are very close to 00z. Maybe a hair slower and thus sw through hr 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:52 PM, CT Blizz said: I have a hard time with BOS not getting sleet if we do in CT..Doesn't seem logical though I guess it can happen They'd probably get a little....but the way the structure of this storm is set up, its more of a latitude thing....which is a bit strange for a coastal, but it can happen. They turn the mid-levels out of the east in time to prevent as much sleet taint. In the end, you might end up being very similar, but its possible for you to get more sleet than them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:57 PM, ORH_wxman said: They'd probably get a little....but the way the structure of this storm is set up, its more of a latitude thing....which is a bit strange for a coastal, but it can happen. They turn the mid-levels out of the east in time to prevent as much sleet taint. In the end, you might end up being very similar, but its possible for you to get more sleet than them. Will, we've been talking about an Xmas 2002 analog for this storm; what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:57 PM, ORH_wxman said: They'd probably get a little....but the way the structure of this storm is set up, its more of a latitude thing....which is a bit strange for a coastal, but it can happen. They turn the mid-levels out of the east in time to prevent as much sleet taint. In the end, you might end up being very similar, but its possible for you to get more sleet than them. Yeah on the Euro I'm thinking sleet for Boston for at least a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:54 PM, leesun said: Thicknesses at all levels really crash as the storm gets going.. 15z SREF's def. colder 15z SREF's don't look all that wet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:51 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro is like 1.70 or 1.75" of qpf for BOS almost all snow, maybe a few pingers at the height. Sweet. Call out the construction equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:57 PM, CoastalWx said: So far 12z euro ensembles are very close to 00z. Maybe a hair slower and thus sw through hr 60. Thanks Scott. -- NAM won't give up the goat even inside of 12-18 hours on s/w movement. I understand what people are saying etc about 60 hours...but it's wrong inside of 12-18 down south...aye carumba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 With the consensus track that we have now, PVD to BOS will do very well. Taint seems to be less with each run. On 1/24/2011 at 7:55 PM, MJHUB said: still very conserned of a bust on good snows for PVD metro and half of the PVD-BOS corridor, anyone want to brighten my day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like a millibar or two stronger and a few miles west of 00z by 12z Thursday, as compared to 00z. Maybe a degree warmer at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:56 PM, Zeus said: Close the door, remove your pants, and have a seat. I have a bearskin rug in my office and a screensaver of a fireplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:59 PM, CoastalWx said: Looks like a millibar or two stronger and a few miles west of 00z by 12z Thursday, as compared to 00z. Maybe a degree warmer at 850. Where's it running 850 at 60h on the ensembles, I can only see 72h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I never take SREF's QPF verbatim. I just look at where the bullseyes are On 1/24/2011 at 7:58 PM, Zeus said: 15z SREF's don't look all that wet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:59 PM, blizzardgeek said: I have a bearskin rug in my office and a screensaver of a fireplace. You had me at bearskin rug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:50 PM, CT Blizz said: Yeah 12-18 with an inch of sleet mixed in is nothing but good. Can't go worng there Winter of your life, Blizzy Imagine what your piles will look like. You will need a catapult or helicopter to put snow on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 7:52 PM, Organizing Low said: 1.5-1.75 qpf crushed Should mobilize the National Guard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 8:01 PM, leesun said: I never take SREF's QPF verbatim. I just look at where the bullseyes are SREF trend tends to be most important outside of 60h, though its qpf scores have drastically improved in that time range vs a year or two ago. In this case though, they have jumped a good bit NW of the 09z run suggesting that they are just now catching onto the idea that the Euro/ensembles have had for 2 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 so i see the nam is just smoking crack right? if it ever scored a coup over the euro/euro ens gfs ens with them being over BM for 3-4 days straight.....i would have a tuff time beleiving models again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 8:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: Where's it running 850 at 60h on the ensembles, I can only see 72h. BDR-UUU-Canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 sfefs give us 1" of QPF? nothing wrong with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 8:04 PM, CoastalWx said: BDR-UUU-Canal. Well pretty much in line with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 8:04 PM, CoastalWx said: BDR-UUU-Canal. Wow...this is going to be fun. And all, don't worry about the SREF precip so much as the placement. It looks great overall. SNE will do very well there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 8:02 PM, HubbDave said: Winter of your life, Blizzy Imagine what your piles will look like. You will need a catapult or helicopter to put snow on top This guy will help. I hear he's moving south, away from the north pole to where the snow is in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 8:04 PM, CoastalWx said: BDR-UUU-Canal. Can you see hour 66? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 8:07 PM, ericnh said: Those are the 03z SREFS....12 hours old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 8:07 PM, ericnh said: On 1/24/2011 at 8:07 PM, Kbosch said: Wow...this is going to be fun. And all, don't worry about the SREF precip so much as the placement. It looks great overall. SNE will do very well there. I worry more that about 20% are basically a miss still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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