Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Previous thread Euro came in a tad cooler overnight and I see the 06z GFS is a nice snowstorm as well. Ensm look great as well. Chuck em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Good trends on some of the models that were east coming back west, Think we still see a few tics NW on the models over the next day or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Snow on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Good trends on some of the models that were east coming back west, Think we still see a few tics NW on the models over the next day or so.... I hope so, we need snow badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I hope so, we need snow badly. What's your total this year so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ot: how are folks linking their local obs into their user status? Same process as it was on Eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What's your total this year so far? 48" I said that tongue in cheek lol, snowpack here is pretty robust for most of us (I'm pretty sure for Dryslot too, maybe somewhat less rel to avg for his area). We don't really need snow but the ski areas do. We should be concerned for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 48" I said that tongue in cheek lol, snowpack here is pretty robust for most of us (I'm pretty sure for Dryslot too, maybe somewhat less rel to avg for his area). We don't really need snow but the ski areas do. We should be concerned for them. Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 48" I said that tongue in cheek lol, snowpack here is pretty robust for most of us (I'm pretty sure for Dryslot too, maybe somewhat less rel to avg for his area). We don't really need snow but the ski areas do. We should be concerned for them. I am just over 51", We were done last year after Jan when the retro storm came thru we ended at 53.80" which was 19" below normal for our area here, We avg 72.5", Looks like we are going to make a run at being on the plus side of that number if things continue...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Vim Toot! Snow for You!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Vim Toot! His area is starving for snow, And looks like they may miss out again...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Snow for You!! How cold did it get ontop da hill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Vim Toot! Exactly. The national economy will nosedive again if it doesn't snow another 20" in Caribou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 A little OT, and hopefully not to derail the thread, but a follow-up to the BOS on-air met discussion from overnightt: Matt Noyes posted about 5 Tweets last night explaining why the storm wasn't going out to sea. He cited the global models and their consistancey. Also how the US guidance has been too far SE all winter in the 84-48 hour range. Seemed pretty critical of those calling for an OTS track without naming names. Good stuff from him and another reason why he's fast becoming my favorite Boston met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Oops sorry for the OT, we were discussing the upcoming storm. As we have been thinking all along, BOS/HFD will be experiencing some borderline snow crisis come Friday if this storm does come to fruition. They've been fairly proactive moving snow out of Route 3 /495 / 93 breakdown lanes and walled areas, which should help some. Not sure about other areas from BOS south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mica Vim Toot Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Vim Toot! Yup. We need more tyro-weenie mojo from you guys. Help us out or I'll consult my thesaurus and call you all really bad names. Look: Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 we need better coordination with thread transitions. We have 2 storm discussion threads open for 40 minutes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 630 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011 PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING...BEGINNING AS SNOW...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN AT THE COAST AND A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN ALOFT...WITH TOP DOWN PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY ON WED LOOK TO BE MINOR AND CONFINED MORE TO THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR WED NIGHT...MAINLY VIA STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS A 50-60 KT EASTERLY LLJ OVERRIDES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE FROM THE SFC LOW TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND VIA FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WELL NW OF THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK NE-N AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES...WITH SFC TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND ALLOWING PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...WITH AT LEAST A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR. THIS PERIOD OF ICING COULD BE MORE PROLONGED ACROSS SE CT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR IN ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF WED NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yikes, the euro gets the 850-700 Critical thickness line to GC and srn NH for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 630 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011 PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING...BEGINNING AS SNOW...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN AT THE COAST AND A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN ALOFT...WITH TOP DOWN PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY ON WED LOOK TO BE MINOR AND CONFINED MORE TO THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR WED NIGHT...MAINLY VIA STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS A 50-60 KT EASTERLY LLJ OVERRIDES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE FROM THE SFC LOW TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND VIA FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WELL NW OF THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK NE-N AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES...WITH SFC TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND ALLOWING PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...WITH AT LEAST A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR. THIS PERIOD OF ICING COULD BE MORE PROLONGED ACROSS SE CT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR IN ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF WED NIGHT. That could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bummer this could be a warmer scenario after all of this crazy cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 630 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011 PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN LATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED MORNING...BEGINNING AS SNOW...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN AT THE COAST AND A WINTRY MIX INLAND AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN ALOFT...WITH TOP DOWN PARTIAL THICKNESS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY ON WED LOOK TO BE MINOR AND CONFINED MORE TO THE INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR WED NIGHT...MAINLY VIA STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS A 50-60 KT EASTERLY LLJ OVERRIDES A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NE FROM THE SFC LOW TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...AND VIA FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WELL NW OF THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BACK NE-N AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES...WITH SFC TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING AND ALLOWING PRECIP TO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW...WITH AT LEAST A TRANSITIONAL PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR. THIS PERIOD OF ICING COULD BE MORE PROLONGED ACROSS SE CT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR IN ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF WED NIGHT. Saw that, too, and that OKX has a ton of ZR and IP in the hourly graphs, even for northern parts of their region. Not sure where that's coming from, as even the Euro sounded cold enough for predominately snow last night. Second guessing OKX hasn't worked out well this year, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Must be a sneaky warm layer above 850. It might be overdoing it, but that could be a good deal of sleet near and south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yikes, the euro gets the 850-700 Critical thickness line to GC and srn NH for a time. Yeah that's going to be a problem I think. Sleet city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah that's going to be a problem I think. Sleet city? I think the euro may be too warm on the nrn edge, but it could def be a paint peeler for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yikes, the euro gets the 850-700 Critical thickness line to GC and srn NH for a time. May as well ask a BY question, how's western CT going to fair per the euro and per your gut (say i91 west)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Snow for You!! Haha...yeah I wish. I don't think there will be all that much out here. It'll have to transition quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 May as well ask a BY question, how's western CT going to fair per the euro and per your gut (say i91 west)? I think there could be at least some sleet away fron the coast and south of I-84/west of I-91. If the GFS is right, it's a colder storm. Low level thicknesses get very marginal along the CT shoreline too. If the euro solution were to verify, I think you can trim back the sleet a bit further south, but srn CT could very well be a sleet fest. Hopefully the mid levels can tick a degree or so colder with each run, but I think the risk is coming closer by about 40 miles or so. I hope not, but I could see that. NW CT would pretty much be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 we need better coordination with thread transitions. We have 2 storm discussion threads open for 40 minutes now. Speak to the moderators/admins in charge. I have no control over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looking outside at all the snow we got now its insane to think we might have another big storm on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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