NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Might be sleet at hour 60 itself, still a warm layer with east wind present, with a freezing layer nearer the surface. It should go snow in the next hour or two though. Yup, the surface freezing line runs right slong i95 through nyc at hr 60, and then we have wet snow with wet ground, temps around 32..A real mess, but id say 5-6" or so for the city and our area this run verbatim, given all the issues I juyst mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 UKMET loop. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011012412®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=0&F1=tmpc&C1=hght&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F2=p06i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not quite asure about that just yet, but I'll check out bufkit. It looks to me that for a 5-8 hour period from roughly 60hrs out on give a heavy wet snow to the city Precip still looks kind of screwy on the west side....5" line only gets as far west as a H-burg to High Point, NJ line, and looks like it should be more developed between the SE and NE (almost skipping over the area to some extent) If you 'connected' the dots (precip) a la EURO probably pretty close to the end result. Along I-95 (including NYC) a little snow, to mix/rain for a time, then to a heavy snow with the CCB. Once 15 miles+ NW of I-95 mostly/all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 From the GFS's perspective, the QPF shield associated with the CCB explodes as it heads toward/off the coast. Although inland locations are cooler and dominantly snow throughout the storm, it seems that (from this model run - and other indicators) that accumulations there would be mitigated by the lack of significant precip, which will be priming for the coast, even in dealing with a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 60 hour soundings from the UKMET are also warm at 850 so goes to snow after 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Still looks like coastal sections of NJ and Long Island will have quite a bit of liquid during the middle portion of the storm...mixed bag to rain back to snow before ending with several inches possible in the big cities with more N and W and less to the east toward the Jersey shore and Long Island. Sounds a lot like both DTs and JBs current forecast Of course this will change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Even in Delaware? Thanks no clue. I didnt look, i was speaking of the nyc philly metro. Whats your station, ill look at the sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 no clue. I didnt look, i was speaking of the nyc philly metro. Whats your station, ill look at the sounding. KDOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is Wetern Long Island and Eastern Queens Lumped together with NYC in this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 KDOV Rain at 60, snow at 66, NW winds at 66 so probably starting to wind down with precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is Wetern Long Island and Eastern Queens Lumped together with NYC in this? You go snow between 60 and 66 and get about .85 or so all snow, maybe a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desnowlover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Appreciate the help Trials! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 not it doesnt...dont just look at the qpf print out... unless you were expecting a 12+++ megabomb snowstorm, this gfs run isnt a letdown. Maybe i worded it bad. It sucks in terms of wasting such good qpf to rain. The qpf printout is kosher to my eyes, the temps are just too damn warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is going to be close, I think this storm Ray fmartin will do better then me because his parents house is NW in Ewing. Prolly better than both of us, im in Bordentown so i stuck out a little more east, not much, but certainly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Maybe i worded it bad. It sucks in terms of wasting such good qpf to rain. The qpf printout is kosher to my eyes, the temps are just too damn warm. most of the qpf comes with the CBB and its all snow. thats the funnest part of a storm anyway..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 is it all snow at KHPN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's hard to tell what the ukmet does witht the 66 hour frame missing, but it looks close to the gfs and its and the ecm prior 0z runs. A Rain to some accumulating snows threat is increasing on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 most of the qpf comes with the CBB and its all snow. thats the funnest part of a storm anyway..... Not in my neck of the woods it doesnt, i mean its close, its as close as close can get, but not close enough i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 .85 out of how much total QPF? How much QPF is lost as liquid? Hour 60 is what time? i hate waiting for the changeover, seems like it rushes into the city/western queens and then stops usually and crawls through eastern queens and nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 .85 out of how much total QPF? How much QPF is lost as liquid? Hour 60 is what time? Wow, I want to help out and all, but a lot of this stuff is easy to look up on the nws model site. 60 hours is 00Z Thursday GMT so 7PM Wednesday EST. .85 of about 1.25 liquid is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 .85 out of how much total QPF? How much QPF is lost as liquid? Hour 60 is what time? I think many on this board if current model overall ideas/outputs are correct (especially the EUR0) GFS is close (but it still is splitting the energy a little too much) will be VERY HAPPY with the CCB on this storm. Yes, some rain/mix at the start and the middle (depending on exact location) but the EURO advertises and the GFS is almost there, a significant snowstorm for most. Hate to put a number yet but right now Im expecting 5-10" for NYC & N/C NJ within 15 miles of I-95. More NW... Not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 .85 out of how much total QPF? How much QPF is lost as liquid? Hour 60 is what time? hour 60 is 0z so its like 7pm est Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i hate waiting for the changeover, seems like it rushes into the city/western queens and then stops usually and crawls through eastern queens and nassau Its also very difficult to forecast on any guidance. One must leave wiggle room in other words 3 or so hours sooner or later makes a big difference. It usually goes for the opposite as well, cold can hang on and be delayed before being scoured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice image to save to one's desktop if they so desire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice image to save to one's desktop if they so desire some folks will prob find themselves on a nice backside, NW band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z GGEM coming in less amplified and further east than 00z. Should be a better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z GGEM coming in less amplified and further east than 00z. Should be a better run. not surprised given its smarter little brother the rgem looks very nice at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice image to save to one's desktop if they so desire Terrific depiction of a classic comma head and associated cold conveyor belt. Somebody is going to enjoy a few hours of poundage underneath that band in strong banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 With the trends, it's almost nearing a given that this will be light to moderate rain changing to a heavy wet snow near the coast. What is suspect though is how far west the precip shield develops. The GFS has been sheering QPF amounts significantly from extending far back to the NW of I95, which would put higher snow totals there in question. Of course, the EURO paints a different story... we'll have to see if this will be another storm featuring tight gradients or a more generous QPF field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I posted earlier the UKMET was a smidge warm at 850 for all the local stations around NYC AT 60 hours 7PM Wednesday but what I didn't realize was that the precip was just starting. Here is the ukmet at 60 hours. At 72 hours the soundings are still saturated enough to give snow which means its slower than the GFS and thus what falls after 60 hours for the next 12 hours is probably all snow. What I am driving at is IMHO the UKMET is a colder version of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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