Bilas Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this looks like a two part event to me... a lot of people are going to be crying and hanging themselves wed evening before the ccb takes over How hard is it for the models to predict or project ccb's? How far east of 95 do you think they will go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like the RGEM is setting up very nicely for the nyc metro. Here is 4 panel black and white. Agree with previous poster about a two part event, how separated they are will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You know what someone should do for pa get a close up map that shows the counties and draw where they think the rain/snow line will be so if everyone can stop worrying including me id be greatful you all will worry regardless.....we still got a ways to go before the rain/snow line could be ironed out, and even then the worrying will persist until the storm passes...then you start worrying about the next threat. so the worries never go away....anxiety and weenies go together like butter and toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can't believe I'm wasting one of my precious 5 posts per day for this, but then again can't believe I was five posted to begin with. FROM HPC 12Z NAM EVALUATION MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. ...DEEPENING SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE WRN GULF INTO WRN ATLC... BY TUE THE NAM BECOMES A LITTLE SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT THAN MOST SOLNS ASIDE FROM THE NAM/WRF-DOMINANT 09Z SREF MEAN. BY WED THE NAM DOES BECOME SLOWER THAN EVEN THE SREF MEAN. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE ALOFT FOR THE REST OF THE FCST. THE NAM SFC REFLECTION COMPARES ACCEPTABLY TO REMAINING GUIDANCE THRU ABOUT F36 LATE TUE. AFTER THAT TIME THE NAM BECOMES SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE SRN/SWRN PART OF THE OVERALL SFC SYSTEM AND IS ALSO SLOW WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND DURING F60-72 LATE WED-WED NIGHT THE NAM IS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH THE SFC LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. THE PAST 12 HRS OF NAM RUNS OFFER ONLY MINOR DETAIL DIFFS SFC/ALOFT. THESE RUNS ARE SLOWER THAN YDAYS 12Z NAM ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITHOUT A SIMILAR TREND EVIDENT AT THE SFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this looks like a two part event to me... a lot of people are going to be crying and hanging themselves wed evening before the ccb takes over I feel like you're jabbing your screen name into my rib cage and letting me know i'm not fully cooked... yet. These CCB setups are complicated and having to rely on them for any snow will certainly be a test of weather endurance. I hope you're right, but my confidence is beginning to waiver already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ^^ By the NAM being as slow as it is, that is why it is also on the colder end of the spectrum, gives that new HP time to get a bit more established unlike the other models. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Amazing, great maps posted on the RGEM which is clearly shaping up to be better than the NAM and we are still talking about the NAM well beyond its useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This event feels like it's been in the Nam's garbage range forever now. What time frame are we looking at now? Are we pushed into Wednesday night now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This event feels like it's been in the Nam's garbage range forever now. What time frame are we looking at now? Are we pushed into Wednesday night now? Well, if its a two parter, its 12z Wed, then a break, then overnight wed to thursday. The CCB is pretty well modeled to be overnight wed to early thursday. Fits the seasonal trend of night time banding well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can't believe I'm wasting one of my precious 5 posts per day for this, but then again can't believe I was five posted to begin with. FROM HPC 12Z NAM EVALUATION MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. ...DEEPENING SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE WRN GULF INTO WRN ATLC... BY TUE THE NAM BECOMES A LITTLE SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT THAN MOST SOLNS ASIDE FROM THE NAM/WRF-DOMINANT 09Z SREF MEAN. BY WED THE NAM DOES BECOME SLOWER THAN EVEN THE SREF MEAN. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE ALOFT FOR THE REST OF THE FCST. THE NAM SFC REFLECTION COMPARES ACCEPTABLY TO REMAINING GUIDANCE THRU ABOUT F36 LATE TUE. AFTER THAT TIME THE NAM BECOMES SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE SRN/SWRN PART OF THE OVERALL SFC SYSTEM AND IS ALSO SLOW WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND DURING F60-72 LATE WED-WED NIGHT THE NAM IS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH THE SFC LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. THE PAST 12 HRS OF NAM RUNS OFFER ONLY MINOR DETAIL DIFFS SFC/ALOFT. THESE RUNS ARE SLOWER THAN YDAYS 12Z NAM ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITHOUT A SIMILAR TREND EVIDENT AT THE SFC. Nothing about the NAM being on crack in that explanation but I do think we are not quite in it's range yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Final RGEM color map 4 panel. Based on H5 and surface position this should track closer to the coast than the NAM and you can see the 700 low hanging back which means the precip shield will come in two parts with the CCB and the colder part of the storm after the first shot of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Surface low and precip from 12z RGEM I don't know how accurate this map is, but this isn't the first time a low has been depicted over the lakes. That can't be good. Any thoughts/comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't know how accurate this map is, but this isn't the first time a low has been depicted over the lakes. That can't be good. Any thoughts/comments? that little low is actually the kicker. Also, there is a nose of cooler dryer out ahead of it and then the fresh arctic air behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this looks like a two part event to me... a lot of people are going to be crying and hanging themselves wed evening before the ccb takes over I agree the only way to get into any meaningful snow is for the stronger closer system to wrap in the colder air after a period of rain ala the ecm/ ukmet (Christmas 2002) and others. In other words you cant have your pudding if you dont eat any meat. nam may be popping the low too far east with all the convection firing offshore. Lets see what the gfs has to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can't believe I'm wasting one of my precious 5 posts per day for this, but then again can't believe I was five posted to begin with. FROM HPC 12Z NAM EVALUATION MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. ...DEEPENING SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE WRN GULF INTO WRN ATLC... BY TUE THE NAM BECOMES A LITTLE SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT THAN MOST SOLNS ASIDE FROM THE NAM/WRF-DOMINANT 09Z SREF MEAN. BY WED THE NAM DOES BECOME SLOWER THAN EVEN THE SREF MEAN. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE ALOFT FOR THE REST OF THE FCST. THE NAM SFC REFLECTION COMPARES ACCEPTABLY TO REMAINING GUIDANCE THRU ABOUT F36 LATE TUE. AFTER THAT TIME THE NAM BECOMES SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE SRN/SWRN PART OF THE OVERALL SFC SYSTEM AND IS ALSO SLOW WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. ON THE OTHER HAND DURING F60-72 LATE WED-WED NIGHT THE NAM IS ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH THE SFC LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. THE PAST 12 HRS OF NAM RUNS OFFER ONLY MINOR DETAIL DIFFS SFC/ALOFT. THESE RUNS ARE SLOWER THAN YDAYS 12Z NAM ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST BUT WITHOUT A SIMILAR TREND EVIDENT AT THE SFC. 85 - while what you posted is very germane to the discussion, my guess is repeated whining about being 5-posted is not the best way to get out of being 5-posted. My advice would be to just take your medicine and when you come back, focus on adding value, where possible, and remaining mostly silent the rest of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS sets up the r/s line right over the sound....LI may start as rain as well as the bronx, but CT looks to be ok. Everyone goes to snow as the winds turn northerly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 63-69 phl-nyc get ponded by the ccb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 63-69 phl-nyc get ponded by the ccb... Yeah, just a matter of how quickly the temps crash after hour 60. That determines how much snow falls after the changeover. Looks like at least a plowable event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 QPF shield shifted west Huge amounts over LI and Eastern New England...although some of it is lost to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 63-69 phl-nyc get ponded by the ccb... Western LI included? Snow or rain at 63-69... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 63-69 phl-nyc get ponded by the ccb... "ponded" as in a deluge of rain or should it be "pounded" as in white gold? :>) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 63-69 phl-nyc get ponded by the ccb... Yup, surface.850 temps gradually cool enough for snow from west to east Wed. night as that ccb is pounding us. Further west, the better no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS 12z Total QPF through h66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pretty much the best solution for us on the GFS...plenty of QPF as snow once the CCB gets going and only a brief rain/mix for LI and the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hour 60 the rain snow line is between KHPN and KBDR. KNYC is just about all snow as is anything west of there. Small warm layer at 800 60 hours NYC so hour 61 is snow, LOL. Western Long Island is transitioning too and they go cold and snowy after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is the 12 hour precip map from 60 hours through 72. This is pretty much all snow wherever you see precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pretty much the best solution for us on the GFS...plenty of QPF as snow once the CCB gets going and only a brief rain/mix for LI and the city Not quite asure about that just yet, but I'll check out bufkit. It looks to me that for a 5-8 hour period from roughly 60hrs out on give a heavy wet snow to the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not quite asure about that just yet, but I'll check out bufkit. It looks to me that for a 5-8 hour period from roughly 60hrs out on give a heavy wet snow to the city Might be sleet at hour 60 itself, still a warm layer with east wind present, with a freezing layer nearer the surface. It should go snow in the next hour or two though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 one has to wonder if the GFS is done moving west given that's it's moved further west with each run...anything further west that this and it's alot of rain for folks NYC and east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS 12z Total QPF through h66 No surprise given the ensembles over the last two days. This will probably come west again tonight at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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