dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Really you think its going to split the low like this no other model is showing this That is not the question posed. The question is did it ingest bad data or intialize wrong. The result may be absurd but that may not be because of bad data or whatever. What will you say if all the other global models do this at 12z, then what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is exactly where the NAM is making its mistake. This will not happen and is where the model gets all messed up. Really you think its going to split the low like this no other model is showing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 John, What are your thoughts on the Nam? Rossi On my iPhone so only getting a brief look, but I'd agree with Trials on this one. It's probably on the southeast side of the guidance envelope. The 06z GFS seems more fair as far as a more plausible southeast possible solution. That being said, it's not smart to just toss it in the trash completely. We've seen almost every model show a scraper like the NAM at least once, but the trend has been away from that. Keep it in mind, but don't weigh it too heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The most substantial difference between 6z and 12z NAM on the 500mb plots is the positioning of the shortwave over the plains. Pretty darn different, though I don't know what if any downstream ramifications this has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z NAM is the 1st 12z model to come out today. Dont compare it to 12 hour old data, 0z models. Let the rest of the 12z suite come out and then we can say its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is exactly where the NAM is making its mistake. This will not happen and is where the model gets all messed up. Unless an official statement comes out that the NAM is screwed up, I will make my own judgements on what will happen based on all the guidance that comes in with the 12z suite. Just because someone on a weather message board says it won't happen this way doesn't mean it can't. I don't think it will but OTS is not off the table. I don't care how the NAM does it but OTS cannot be discarded as there is meteorological evidence that can still make that solution come to fruition. Earthlight mentioned the kicker in a reply after mine and it has been on the models a multitude of times in the last two days and has to be considered a player on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 The most substantial difference between 6z and 12z NAM on the 500mb plots is the positioning of the shortwave over the plains. Pretty darn different, though I don't know what if any downstream ramifications this has. Youve got it, bud. This is our "kicker" (which the GGEM OP tries to phase in to the system). We'll have to see how the rest of the guidance suite handles it this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 One last thing, as we have seen this year especially, 60 hours is still an eternity for models. Sit back, tighten your seatbelts, and get ready for anything until the moment the storm arrives. Also remember, enjoy whatever snow that has fallen or falls because its the only snow you got! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 500mb height analysis shows this is the #1 analog for 1/26...interestingly enough its very close, however; there was a more significant phase and the high in a bad position is very evident causing ESE winds.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1994/us0303.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Maybe I'm off base with this but the 12z NAM does show the Low scraping which I would think without a strong High to the NW or due W pushing it or suppressing it, why wouldn't the Low stay closer to the coast or track inland for that matter? Are the warm dynamics stronger out to sea than along the coast? D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is exactly where the NAM is making its mistake. This will not happen and is where the model gets all messed up. The NAM definitely blows the low center on the coast there probably due to convective issues again....all I think it would result in though is the low center being slower and more southwest by a bit at each period after 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Y'all are crazy for even watching the TV mets...I don't even give them a look and neither do my parents. They just look at NOAA.gov and call it a day. The smarter decision if you ask me. I suppose your parents consulted you before they made the switch? Normally, if I do ever watch TV, it's Nick Gregory and Lee Goldberg, that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT's first call out http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/NE1C.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Especially the NAM...extrapolating that model is like Helen Keller throwing darts at a dart board. do you mind if i add this to my sig? that's the best thing i've heard in a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Unless an official statement comes out that the NAM is screwed up, I will make my own judgements on what will happen based on all the guidance that comes in with the 12z suite. Just because someone on a weather message board says it won't happen this way doesn't mean it can't. I don't think it will but OTS is not off the table. I don't care how the NAM does it but OTS cannot be discarded as there is meteorological evidence that can still make that solution to come to fruition. Earthlight mentioned the kicker in a reply after mine and it has been on the models a multitude of times in the last two days and has to be considered a player on the field. Well, that's what makes forecasting. Otherwise, all anyone is doing is simply stating what a particular model run shows. If the model solutions differ, then obviously some are correct and some are wrong with respect to sensible weather outcome. At this point in the game, the odds favor the non-ots solution as evidenced by NWS forecasts. Based on the model spread and other factors, a reasonable forecast of the most likely outcome is made. That's not to say it cannot and will not change. I would be much more inclined to agree that ots is still on the table if the 12z gfs and Euro nudge east. Will be interesting to see. If they do not, however, then the 12z nam will probably be largely discounted, especially given that this is still not within its best accuracy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I suppose your parents consulted you before they made the switch? Normally, if I do ever watch TV, it's Nick Gregory and Lee Goldberg, that's about it. Yeah, they asked which website which was best to check. They'll often just ask me what's going down, too. But the NOAA WWA format is great now...the bullet points make it straightforward and easy to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT's first call out http://www.wxrisk.co...011/01/NE1C.jpg Again the 12+ is a bit crazy but otherwise that looks about the best way I'd describe this to someone right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 do you mind if i add this to my sig? that's the best thing i've heard in a while... 25 dollar copy and paste charge. 100% of funds are donated to nogaps ensemble forecast development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Again the 12+ is a bit crazy but otherwise that looks about the best way I'd describe this to someone right now. Agree-but a snow to rain back to snow scenario is somewhat rare...havent seen it too many times in my years of living in either PHL NW burbs or CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 25 dollar copy and paste charge. 100% of funds are donated to nogaps ensemble forecast development. dont tell that one guy from PA Anyways, not sure what happened with the NAm..vort did pass to far south though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm in agreement for the most part with DT. I would probably issue a very similar map. This is a high impact event for NW NJ burbs into SE NY and CT if the model guidance has any clue. As Trials noted though, we are still 60+ hours out. Lots and lots of time for changes which only need to be small in the flow aloft to cause big changes with track and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, that's what makes forecasting. Otherwise, all anyone is doing is simply stating what a particular model run shows. If the model solutions differ, then obviously some are correct and some are wrong with respect to sensible weather outcome. At this point in the game, the odds favor the non-ots solution as evidenced by NWS forecasts. Based on the model spread and other factors, a reasonable forecast of the most likely outcome is made. That's not to say it cannot and will not change. I would be much more inclined to agree that ots is still on the table if the 12z gfs and Euro nudge east. Will be interesting to see. If they do not, however, then the 12z nam will probably be largely discounted, especially given that this is still not within its best accuracy range. I agree but reasoning for discounting the NAM at this time cannot be soley based on 12 hour old data as Earthlight said. It is foolishness and really just sets yourself up to be way off with a forecast. Obviously if other new 12z guidance renders the NAM the far east outlier, you then can make the case as you pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 25 dollar copy and paste charge. 100% of funds are donated to nogaps ensemble forecast development. too late, ha. are there seriously nogaps ensembles? why? so that we can see which wrong solution it's trending towards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 too late, ha. are there seriously nogaps ensembles? why? so that we can see which wrong solution it's trending towards? I like to pick on it since so many many people have been referencing it's insane advantages lately...but I've used it as a tool before too. When it's consistently west and everything else is east, it often a red flag. But I wouldn't throw all my eggs into it's basket regardless of what the situation is. Believe it or not, there are NOGAPS ensembles. I haven't looked at them nor do I know how they perform, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 too late, ha. are there seriously nogaps ensembles? why? so that we can see which wrong solution it's trending towards? oh boy, the nogaps gets more attention on here than any other model these days, lol. Not only are there ensembles, but they are the newest feature on ewall. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSNAVYHGTWIDE_12z/ensloopwide.html just switch 12 to 00 for the other run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I agree, though our area of Union County is rarely that much colder than the rest of the NYC metro to be in the all or mostly snow area I'm in agreement for the most part with DT. I would probably issue a very similar map. This is a high impact event for NW NJ burbs into SE NY and CT if the model guidance has any clue. As Trials noted though, we are still 60+ hours out. Lots and lots of time for changes which only need to be small in the flow aloft to cause big changes with track and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this looks like a two part event to me... a lot of people are going to be crying and hanging themselves wed evening before the ccb takes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sim Radar from 12Z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Surface low and precip from 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You know what someone should do for pa get a close up map that shows the counties and draw where they think the rain/snow line will be so if everyone can stop worrying including me id be greatful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.