TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM is shaping up to look very nice for the nyc metro through 45 hours. Given the pretty remarkable agreement among the srefs, would imagine the NAM doesnt look too much different, at least with resepct to the NMM members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nam is a good 50-100 miles further NW with the precip shield in the south at 45 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 nam at 51 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM is shaping up to look very nice for the nyc metro through 45 hours. Given the pretty remarkable agreement among the srefs, would imagine the NAM doesnt look too much different, at least with resepct to the NMM members. philly and it's metro area?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nam is a good 50-100 miles further NW with the precip shield in the south at 45 hrs. This is not going to be a very pretty solution for coastal regions. 500mb low is already closed off at 42 compared to 6z at 48 when it wasn't closed yet. The Polar Vortex is retreated further to the north and the east-based block is even further to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 High pressure pumping cold air into the region: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is not going to be a very pretty solution for coastal regions. 500mb low is already closed off at 42 compared to 6z at 48 when it wasn't closed yet. The Polar Vortex is retreated further to the north and the east-based block is even further to the east. Disagree very strongly. 850 and 700 lows are going to take over and start to drain fresh dry and cooler air into the system. Maybe for the coastal regions of jersey its not good but up in the nyc metrol this run should be a.o.k once it gets going. EDIT: This is assuming the precip makes it up here. NAM may still be a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Im not going to claim to be an expert in upstream dynamics, but the kicker out in the s/w is being closed off by the NAM this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Disagree very strongly. 850 and 700 lows are going to take over and start to drain fresh dry and cooler air into the system. Maybe for the coastal regions of jersey its not good but up in the nyc metrol this run should be a.o.k once it gets going. Yep, you're right based off later panels. When I'm gonna learn that I can't extrapolate model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 To me the with the NAM to this point: @ 45 the Low is in South Central Georgia @ 51 the Low is off the NC/SC coast. At that angle will it be able to make the turn or more OTS? D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 850 well off the coast at 60 hours on the NAM but not a lot of cold sector precip as the surface low is well s. Another blob with the 700 low trying to come from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Likely a scraper... but let the run play out. To me the with the NAM to this point: @ 45 the Low is in South Central Georgia @ 51 the Low is off the NC/SC coast. At that angle will it be able to make the turn or more OTS? D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yep, you're right based off later panels. When I'm gonna learn that I can't extrapolate model runs? Especially the NAM...extrapolating that model is like Helen Keller throwing darts at a dart board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Especially the NAM...extrapolating that model is like Helen Keller throwing darts at a dart board. The model never gets the storm really consolidated and that doesnt shock me since its still in the models extended range. Based off the SREFS, RSM, and the 00z suite from last night, this is the se edge of the solution envelope IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 9z ETA and 12z NAM look almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Morning update from Elliot Abrams at AccuWX for Philly: Storm coming too close to the coast, floods area with mild Atlantic air, rain at the height of the storm if not throughout the duration of the storm - temps into the 40's Change to wet snow still not off the table but not likely Elliot has been forecasting for the Philly region for what, 35-40 years? His thoughts carry a lot of weight, in my opinion. There's still time to iron out the details, but I wouldn't discount his ideas at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't doubt you one bit, but I think all options are still on the table. It would be very unlikely to see that level of Gulf interaction and weakness along the EC, yet still watch this thing crawl OTS. It just wouldn't make sense for this to be a "Miller M" The model never gets the storm really consolidated and that doesnt shock me since its still in the models extended range. Based off the SREFS, RSM, and the 00z suite from last night, this is the se edge of the solution envelope IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't doubt you one bit, but I think all options are still on the table. It would be very unlikely to see that level of Gulf interaction and weakness along the EC, yet still watch this thing crawl OTS. It just wouldn't make sense for this to be a "Miller M" yes, everything is on the table, but this solution is on the edge of the table and can fall off very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Especially the NAM...extrapolating that model is like Helen Keller throwing darts at a dart board. But darts is all muscle memory. I like the 6Z GFS putting down almost .9" of frozen QPF early on 1/27 in a 3 hour period at KACY. Highly unlikely to verify, but enjoyed seeing it this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Elliot has been forecasting for the Philly region for what, 35-40 years? His thoughts carry a lot of weight, in my opinion. There's still time to iron out the details, but I wouldn't discount his ideas at this point. No question about that but the only model that has his back is the GEM OP which is now actually trending away from that solution. I give him full marks for guts and not model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z nam = Bad Data throw it out how do you know??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z nam = Bad Data throw it out Did the HPC say that or are you saying that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z nam = Bad Data throw it out Probably, but I will wait until that comes out in a more official manner with all due respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Did the HPC say that or are you saying that? I have not seen anything offcially so doubtful HPC has said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 John, What are your thoughts on the Nam? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z nam = Bad Data throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 wow...Im come here to see some analysis not for wishcasting and saying bad data for the NAM before you even know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 He's just mad he lost the bet, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Really you think its going to split the low like this no other model is showing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 John, What are your thoughts on the Nam? Rossi Based on what I have read of him on this board, he thinks very little about the NAM at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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