tcutter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Linda Church on channel 11 and Shea on channel 5 seems like they want to nail the coffin on this storm for NYC; they both mention that it will be mostly rain with minimal snow accumulations for NYC. The only model supporting their call is the GGEM. that is similar to what elliot abrams from accuweather said this morning on kyw radio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREF verbatim looks like all snow for NW of the cities after maybe some initial BL issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Steven, I share the same sentiments. I have learned and am still learning a ton from posters and meteorologists on this forum. It is truly a resource which has no end. Also, post more often! We could use more of people like yourself contributing. Take care buddy Your response is truly appreciated. I hold this place in high regard --- and, in a wierd way --- I feel like I know a lot of you. I find that the personalities on this board are far more 'normal' than 'other' boards. Lots of good, smart folks that love weather --- but are normal people who love sports, drink beer and check their phones for GFS runs while their wives are in labor. Or, like me, they wake up at 1AM, 3:30AM and 5:30AM without an alarm to check the Euro/NAM/GFS, crawl back into bed and have their wife ask them, "How do the models look?" Now that's love. My posts may often be in the form of questions --- hopefully intelligent ones --- but perhaps that will change over time. With that --- back to the storm --- happy with the latest SREF run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREF verbatim looks like all snow for NW of the cities after maybe some initial BL issues. Yeah the mean is much colder...pretty good jump in that direction since 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is an event where if you do not have extensive experience forecasting looks very much like a rain event...sort of how the depictions 2-3 days ago looked very snowy when they were actually rainy....the dynamic cooling events like 3/15/99 or 4/1996 are easily missed alot of the time by amateur or TV forecasters....Linda Church has been around forever though I'm not sure she is a real meteorologist or not even after all these years. http://www.wpix.com/about/wpix-linda-church-29435,0,5803817.story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREF looks like mostly snow from I-95 North if Im looking at it correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There's a lot of spread further to the east. Good news for you 95ers. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_bsp_069s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks Earthlight! Yup agreed...nowhere near my location but always gives me a good idea of what's going down. Thanks a bunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Your response is truly appreciated. I hold this place in high regard --- and, in a wierd way --- I feel like I know a lot of you. I find that the personalities on this board are far more 'normal' than 'other' boards. Lots of good, smart folks that love weather --- but are normal people who love sports, drink beer and check their phones for GFS runs while their wives are in labor. Or, like me, they wake up at 1AM, 3:30AM and 5:30AM without an alarm to check the Euro/NAM/GFS, crawl back into bed and have their wife ask them, "How do the models look?" Now that's love. My posts may often be in the form of questions --- hopefully intelligent ones --- but perhaps that will change over time. With that --- back to the storm --- happy with the latest SREF run. Agreed once again. Believe me, I love the weather..play lots of sports and drink lots of beer. Lol! I have checked the models during the worst times. Boxing Day Blizzard? Forget it...I was sneaking peeks at the models at Christmas Eve mass and dinner. It's a disease, but it's worth it...I've come to accept it as a rewarding hobby and hopefully career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 One thing that's encouraging is that even the westward members are cold at most levels once the heavier precipitation starts. More of them are starting to catch on to the Euros CCB idea as well...there are a few heavy hitters on the indies. Cool start to the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Linda Church on channel 11 and Shea on channel 5 seems like they want to nail the coffin on this storm for NYC; they both mention that it will be mostly rain with minimal snow accumulations for NYC. The only model supporting their call is the GGEM. She just said (at 8:45am) that she just got a look at the latest model runs and it looks like mostly rain for nyc. Seems alot more prudent to stick with rain/snow at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 She needs a little WxSim in her life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 She needs a little WxSim in her life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 IP/ZR arrives by 2pm on Wednesday temp 30.4 Moderate IP by 6pm with Temp at 29.0 Moderate Snow mixed with IP at 9pm with the temp at 29.1 Snow tapers off by 1am Total Snow accumulation (snow + IP) 2" or 3" This isn't too far from my current thoughts for our areas on the storm. I can see it starting late morning Wednesday as a mix, then going over rain or ZR (depending on the temps, which will be close to 32 IMO) and then mixing with / changing back to snow in the evening with a couple inches accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 She needs a little WxSim in her life. She needs to learn something about the weather. There are alot of tv forecasters, all of channel 2 except John Marshall and channel 4 except Chris Cimino who know absolutely nothing - amazing they get paid. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Linda Church on channel 11 and Shea on channel 5 seems like they want to nail the coffin on this storm for NYC; they both mention that it will be mostly rain with minimal snow accumulations for NYC. The only model supporting their call is the GGEM. Add Elliott Abrams to the GEM hugger list. If they think that depiction will verify considering it's bias, far outlieing result that has no support even by it's own Ensembles, they're going to be angering many folks in this region. Not saying they cannot be correct as anything is still possible but to be insistant as they all were this morning really has the potential to make them look even more foolish than everyone did in March 2001 considering how cold it is right now leading up to the storm and how the winter has gone so far. The general public will not understand why it could rain at this stage of the game and if it does not, as it probably won't in any significant way, watch the backlash people will have if there are 2''/hour rates under CCB banding in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is the last frame where the SREFs are above freezing at the surface for I-95 north and west. Everything after this frame is frozen precip. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_x06_060s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So, gut feeling (some thought included) quickly before the 12z suite comes out. I expect the models to trend west a little. This has happened every storm till about 18-24 hours out when they push a little east. Also except temps to remain the same or trend slightly colder. Looked at the calendar...tomorrow is the last Tuesday in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Srefs are colder at all levels and very juicy. Some of the 850 lows will melt a weenies heart. Check this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Y'all are crazy for even watching the TV mets...I don't even give them a look and neither do my parents. They just look at NOAA.gov and call it a day. The smarter decision if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have a feeling there are quite a few lurkers like Steven, myself included. I had interview at PSU for met degree, quickly realizing weather was strictly a hobby...way too much physics and advanced math for this guy. Lurking for 10yrs on the various boards...we should all chime in a bit more. I am curious...Seeing the sharp NW gradient for most storms this year, and remembering the sharp gradient in the storms last winter, is this caused in part by the dry NW flow at 700mb around hr72? First post here. Very long time lurker. This is simply a note of thanks to all of you. I have learned an extraordinary amount from so many of you and look forward to that continuing. I was accepted to PSU for Meteorology and never went --- but have kept it as an intense hobby I love. I know a good bit --- but nothing like so many of you. Therefore, my posts will be limited as I will 'know my role' in a forum filled with so much knowledge. However, I felt it necessary to show some form of gratitude, even if I spend the vast majority of my time lurking in the background and learning. Cheers, Steven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Y'all are crazy for even watching the TV mets...I don't even give them a look and neither do my parents. They just look at NOAA.gov and call it a day. The smarter decision if you ask me. I didn't watch them and never do but was forced to know about it based on what was posted here, lol. I'd actually prefer if no one would post the TV folks' opinions so I don't have to read it and feel like vomitting although it can be a good laugh sometimes, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Y'all are crazy for even watching the TV mets...I don't even give them a look and neither do my parents. They just look at NOAA.gov and call it a day. The smarter decision if you ask me. With few exceptions, like Nick Gregory, I dont take their commentary or forecasts seriously. But obviously they reach far more people than a forum like this so it's interesting to see what they are putting out to the masses. Uptons forecast for my area isnt that far off from Linda Chruch's call, but the HWO details the full range of possibilities nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 With few exceptions, like Nick Gregory, I dont take their commentary or forecasts seriously. But obviously they reach far more people than a forum like this so it's interesting to see what they are putting out to the masses. Uptons forecast for my area isnt that far off from Linda Chruch's call, but the HWO details the full range of possibilities nicely. I think they are so quick to jump on a solution and spread that as gospel. Why couldn't they all just say they are leaning to a mainly rainy event presently but must continue to monitor as there is still a solid possiblity based on model and seasonal trends that the solutions can come in colder leading to a significant snow event. It would tick off the general public a lot less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM slightly faster with the shortwave through 24 hours when compared to 6z. Could be do to the western ridge being displaced slightly further to the east. Now much more neutrally tilted through 30 hours when compared to 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Look for 12z to show HECS 850 Crashing along the coast.Just my opinion I'll mail you 5 dollars if any model shows a HECS at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 RSM now all snow for nyc metro .75 to 1, just like the srefs Here is a pretty frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'll mail you 5 dollars if any model shows a HECS at 12z. Forget him, take the money and donate it to the Message Board, j/k, I am sure you have given plenty, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Forget him, take the money and donate it to the Message Board, j/k, I am sure you have given plenty, lol. Maybe I'll donate it to the NOGAPS fund...I'm sure atownwxwatcher would appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have a feeling there are quite a few lurkers like Steven, myself included. I had interview at PSU for met degree, quickly realizing weather was strictly a hobby...way too much physics and advanced math for this guy. Lurking for 10yrs on the various boards...we should all chime in a bit more. I am curious...Seeing the sharp NW gradient for most storms this year, and remembering the sharp gradient in the storms last winter, is this caused in part by the dry NW flow at 700mb around hr72? I'm with you. Physics hurts my head at times. I think it's hard to compare this storm to the most recent 'big ones' with sharp gradients. They were wound up tight and took the same general track --- then ran into a block up North. It's funny, for a while I was beginning to think that because this set up is so starkly different, that this was the pattern breaker. Then the thing slows down about 24 hours --- let's the High shoot out East and allows room for another to come behind it which could shove this far enough East to give snow to the same places. Amazing. This one has a LOT of moisture over a wide area and is not as compact as some of the others, but a lot of that moisture may make the ocean wetter. For years I was in agony b/c we could never get the big one and I watched the Poconos and Central PA get slammed, while we got a nasty mix or just plain rain. Then the pattern broke last year and it won't let go. Watching seasonal trends seems just as important as watching all of the models. It wants to snow in Philly/NJ/LI, and looking at the Euro, SREF and most recent NAM, I'm beginning to think that won't change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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