Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The schools closed where I lived in SE NAssau and that district never ever closed outisde of the 93-94 and 95-96 winters, we were the toughest district on the Island to close for snow. based on our conversations last winter during the Dec 19th storm (not sure if you remember) I think you said you lived in Merrick? And that would make sense based on your description of closing school LOL I feel like we never had any snow days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Can someone tell me what computer models from Channel 7 was looking at? He said mostly a rain event with a slushy 3 inches for the city. 12z GGEM...sleet ended the storm as the CCB came in too late and wasn't cold enough. Apparently though, the 00z RGEM looks very promising and if it's any indication, will yield a good 00z GGEM hit. We'll know in about 10 minutes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's only one run of the GFS which has yet to have 2 back to back runs that have looked the same so I'm sure it will change several more times Yeah, that's true. But GEFS have been consistently just offshore and this evolution seems reasonable. Major trend of past few runs is to really focus on the precip to the west of the mid-level center in the Tenn Valley and mid-atlantic. RGEM and UKMET look better for the NW quadrant. I think the GGEM will look solid as well. Wouldn't surprise me to see a run or two hammer the metro with over 1.5" tonight or tomorrow. Curious about Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM is on board GGEM is MUCH colder than it was - is it even colder than the NAM/GFS? Hard to tell from the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM is on board The closed off 500mb low is key, it maximizes the dynamics, and hopefully it really happens just southwest of where that panel has it. The cold air really looks to crash in as the storm goes off, it's just a matter of where the precip happens to be where it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM is on board not goin to complain but it has a much less impressive QPF field than what I would like to see...only 0.4 25 miles N and W of NYC..also I know this is only 12 hrs but I'm assuming nothing appreciable falls beforehand. Beggers can be choosers I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM is on board I wish I had archived the previous images of the GGEM to show how AWFUL it was with this storm...major cave to the rest of guidance. This is quickly turning into the same situation as the Boxing Day Blizzard. I believe it was the 12z GFS 54 hours out that led us to believe a huge storm was possible, before the "intialization error" scandal. The 18z GFS led the pack with substantial QPF and much stronger CCB once again. Not saying the results will be the same, but man it seems as though nothing can go wrong this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GGEM is slightly east of where I would have guessed. Yet another offshore track. Nice track for the cities and the Island. I think the Regional was slightly west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0z gfs ens take the storm from hse to about 150 miles or so east of acy to over or just south of the bm....850s are colder than 18z...still hammering the ccb band... qpf is .75-1 dc to bos and about 40 miles north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SUNY mm5 looks like a beast (NAM-ish) at 42: http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2011012500/images_d1/500vor.42.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 00z GFS ensembles hold serve with OP on track precip amounts generally the same with higher amounts than the OP in the LV, North NJ and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hellz yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0z gfs ens take the storm from hse to about 150 miles or so east of acy to over or just south of the bm....850s are colder than 18z...still hammering the ccb band... qpf is .75-1 dc to bos and about 40 miles north and west not saying it will happen as the GEFS says, but that would be KU storm #3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 00z GFS ensembles slowed down a little and shifted the qpf west a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 SUNY mm5 looks like a beast (NAM-ish) at 42: http://cheget.msrc.s...vor.42.0000.gif Would probably end up in a solution somewhat west of the GFS this run. I think the models tighten up and head NW a nudge at least tomorrow and that's about what we'll have. That's what's happened with almost every system so far this winter, I doubt this one's any different. Today's 12z Euro might be a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It is a good sign that the ensembles are finally shifting the qpf northwest after being dry compared to the OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Would probably end up in a solution somewhat west of the GFS this run. I think the models tighten up and head NW a nudge at least tomorrow and that's about what we'll have. That's what's happened with almost every system so far this winter, I doubt this one's any different. Today's 12z Euro might be a good spot. I know the 12/26 event had a late shift east however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 not saying it will happen as the GEFS says, but that would be KU storm #3 There has to be a widespread 10"+ area of snow with localized 20"+ snow to qualify, since the really heavy snow looks to be CCB-driven and relatively short lived, it might not be the case. 6 or 8"+ over a wide area might be a better deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 There has to be a widespread 10"+ area of snow with localized 20"+ snow to qualify, since the really heavy snow looks to be CCB-driven and relatively short lived, it might not be the case. 6 or 8"+ over a wide area might be a better deal. well what about 3/1/09? nvm there was widespread 4-10 and a large enough area of 10-20. I think for sure someone sees a foot out of this...I'd be surprised if no one does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just a suggestion, before the euro comes out can we create another thread...we are already closing in on 1000 posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 00z GFS ensembles hold serve with OP on track precip amounts generally the same with higher amounts than the OP in the LV, North NJ and NYC I like the idea of more qpf extending westward, but it always seems like the precip shield is somewhat expanded in the GFS ensembles. Is there any truth to this, or am I just delusional? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 All snow for NYC on the GGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I like the idea of more qpf extending westward, but it always seems like the precip shield is somewhat expanded in the GFS ensembles. Is there any truth to this, or am I just delusional? yes QPF is not reliable taken from the ensemble mean...it's ok to match it up and see how it fits but in forecasting amounts using ensemble mean QPF isn't the correct method. It is a good tool to confirm the OP's solution, which it basically has, and maybe says the western fringe does a little better than advertised at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I know the 12/26 event had a late shift east however. Very, very late (since it was progged to miss EVERYONE 60 hours out), but oftentime storms that bomb out like this one tuck back NW at the very end a little. I definitely wouldn't look to the GFS for any kind of last minute answer here. On 1/12 it had me getting very little snow until just before the storm, and I had 10". On 12/26, the storm really bombed out east of NJ, and you could see how the snow band slanted further north once that bombing out really commenced. Hopefully for you guys it takes place around the Delmarva, and the upper air dynamics catch you as it does so. The WAA push initially should also catch you more than the GFS has. It might have a feedback error here in robbing too much from the snow associated with that push as the dynamic snow develops over WV/western VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just a suggestion, before the euro comes out can we create another thread...we are already closing in on 1000 posts only if earthlight does one of his first post of the thread analysis where he gets everyone excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/nesis.php for those asking about KU storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 A nudge 20 miles west and I-95 gets in on truly significant snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Very, very late (since it was progged to miss EVERYONE 60 hours out), but oftentime storms that bomb out like this one tuck back NW at the very end a little. I definitely wouldn't look to the GFS for any kind of last minute answer here. On 1/12 it had me getting very little snow until just before the storm, and I had 10". On 12/26, the storm really bombed out east of NJ, and you could see how the snow band slanted further north once that bombing out really commenced. Hopefully for you guys it takes place around the Delmarva, and the upper air dynamics catch you as it does so. The WAA push initially should also catch you more than the GFS has. It might have a feedback error here in robbing too much from the snow associated with that push as the dynamic snow develops over WV/western VA. I agree with everything else you said but I just don't see appreciable WAA precip for anyone, and it really isn't till the coastal gets going that areas further west will I believe cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 well what about 3/1/09? nvm there was widespread 4-10 and a large enough area of 10-20. I think for sure someone sees a foot out of this...I'd be surprised if no one does. 3/1/09 combined the heavy dynamic snow with the heavy WAA snow, it happened over much of the same area, although the upper support driven snow happened a little further west. This time, the initial snow should happen just north of the cities, while the dynamic snow could happen over the cities and coast. There's still time for trends though, and a lot could change over 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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