LVblizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yup have to see if these are trends, looks like east of NYC and C NJ get the worst.... The only trend we're seeing tonight is agreement that a CCB will crush I-95 Wednesday evening. Even the GFS has it to some degree, even though it cut back slightly from 18z. NAM/RGEM/UKMET all agree, with the GFS in the same ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lack of precip on NW side at 42-48 hours is just wierd if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 540 line of the UKMET at 48 hours is in line with NAM and RGEM. Models definately trending colder at 00z tonight. noticed that too. By this time tomorrow we'll be relying on the mm5, nmm, etc to hone in on the best bandin, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We are at a point now where we are looking at a light mix of rain/sleet/snow turning to a heavy snow...6-10" for NYC and northern NJ Per NAM/GEM/GFS/UKIE were at a point where we hae light snow turning to heavy snow...if EURO comes in line later, basically every model has no/nominal mix/rain from the cities N/W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lack of precip on NW side at 42-48 hours is just wierd if you ask me agreed..I think the Euro may have a better handle on QPF, and I suspect it'll trend colder too at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The only trend we're seeing tonight is agreement that a CCB will crush I-95 Wednesday evening. Even the GFS has it to some degree, even though it cut back slightly from 18z. NAM/RGEM/UKMET all agree, with the GFS in the same ballpark. Lots of agreement here. It'll be interesting to see what the Euro shows later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Models are increasingly headed toward a scenario that presents light rain or rain/snow for most of us with the initial surge of warm advection precip, and then the dynamics sort of catch up to the developing low and form a CCB as the low bombs east of NJ, and by then the winds are northerly, cooling us all down. I don't think 12/25/02 is really the best analog for this, it might actually be 3/1/09, but in a form much more biased to the second part than the first. Part one continues to weaken on most guidance, and the low track is nudging east very slightly but notably. We have to hope the 700 and 850 lows close off in time, and the dynamics catch up to the main low to maximize our slammedness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Per NAM/GEM/GFS/UKIE were at a point where we hae light snow turning to heavy snow...if EURO comes in line later, basically every model has no/nominal mix/rain from the cities N/W... ya its becoming clear this is an initial light WAA/overruning precip which even if it were snow wouldn't accumulate more than an inch or 2 then the beast comes through for about 6-10 hours. I think 4+ up and down I-95 is becoming likely. Some areas will likely pick up a foot somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hmmmm, interesting, CCB really never gets there on the GFS, a definite change in coverage and intensity, I certainly wouldn't say a trend east or west, just more compact and thus drier for almost everyone north of Philadelphia...rather hope this is not the beginning of a shift toward a compact fast moving system like we've seen all of January, well at least the mid-Atl gets some action, they've been starved this year with that, good night, and here's to tomorrow's ROAB input for the 12zs, may they offer a solution that spares none of us (even the whiners on both sides of the Delaware) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 And like last week's event and the 11th-12th storm, the vast majority falls in a 6 to 8 hour period The only trend we're seeing tonight is agreement that a CCB will crush I-95 Wednesday evening. Even the GFS has it to some degree, even though it cut back slightly from 18z. NAM/RGEM/UKMET all agree, with the GFS in the same ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If there are no WSWs out on the AM issuance (assuming the GEM/Euro don't do something completely 180 to the GFS/NAM/UKMET) I'm going to give birth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lack of precip on NW side at 42-48 hours is just wierd if you ask me Why do you think so? And what about after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anybody else made somewhat jittery by all that energy back across the CONUS? The NAM has at least two or three other shortwaves pulsing as our shortwave goes negative and tries to close off. Seems to me there's still some variability to be on guard for until maybe 24 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 total qpf looks 0.75 - 1"(+) i-78 south to PHL . Thats I-76 the PA turnpike, .5 is basically running along I-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Per NAM/GEM/GFS/UKIE were at a point where we hae light snow turning to heavy snow...if EURO comes in line later, basically every model has no/nominal mix/rain from the cities N/W... I think for much of the duration of the storm we see a sloppy mix of light precip. Most importantly the heaviest stuff is not wasted and will be snow. But before that, it seems like the type of event where we go over to snow or sleet with heavier bursts and drizzle with sleet for the lighter precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Anybody else made somewhat jittery by all that energy back across the CONUS? The NAM has at least two or three other shortwaves pulsing as our shortwave goes negative and tries to close off. Seems to me there's still some variability to be on guard for until maybe 24 hours from now. would the variabilities be in a good way for the coast or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 540 line of the UKMET at 48 hours is in line with NAM and RGEM. Models definately trending colder at 00z tonight. Yeah the storm has slowed up enough to allow the northern stream to get is a better position to deliver cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hmmmm, interesting, CCB really never gets there on the GFS, a definite change in coverage and intensity, I certainly wouldn't say a trend east or west, just more compact and thus drier for almost everyone north of Philadelphia...rather hope this is not the beginning of a shift toward a compact fast moving system like we've seen all of January, well at least the mid-Atl gets some action, they've been starved this year with that, good night, and here's to tomorrow's ROAB input for the 12zs, may they offer a solution that spares none of us (even the whiners on both sides of the Delaware) speed was never the issue with this...its not like the models are trending faster with the storm. This issue is dynamics dynamics dynamics...If everything lines up in time we're good. If its early we're probably good too. If its late congrats SNE or maybe CC. I tend to think based on the seasonal trends, that things will come together just in time for us, and if anyone were to be worried it should be the DC-BAL crowd not the PHL-NYC crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If there are no WSWs out on the AM issuance (assuming the GEM/Euro don't do something completely 180 to the GFS/NAM/UKMET) I'm going to give birth Based off the RGEM, I think the GGEM is going to show a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Main event 48-54 hr on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah the storm has slowed up enough to allow the northern stream to get is a better position to deliver cold air. over the past couple days it was interesting to watch the northern stream and southern stream speed up and slow down respectively to the point where now there may not even be any rain at all cities westward. It even for a second looked like the northern stream had it dug a little more, wanted to phase. What would the situation look like if that had happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It means cold conveyor belt. Which translates to "super mega heavy snow band". That's what it means to me! But I think it's much more complicated than that. A ccb doesn't guarantee a distinct comma head. And good wraparound snows require, among other things, a wcb and dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Why do you think so? And what about after that? Dynamically, the precip should be in WV and western VA at hour 42 on the GFS (that's where the 700 low is and strong lift), but the low and main slug of WAA is east of there along the coast. The dynamics aren't caught up to the storm yet really, so it kind of makes sense that a lot of the precip associated with it is fairly weak, and that the heaviest stuff is near the upper low. But perhaps it's a feedback error of some sort, because there's still an impressive southerly fetch at the mid/lower levels to generate some precip. I would think the precip nearer to the coast is showery/lighter than the stuff over WV and VA at this time, but there should definitely be more of it further west based on these panels and the moist fetch, coupled with whatever upslope it can provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Main event 48-54 hr on GFS. The GFS is probably too far east as its been all year, not by much by probably 50-75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 remember that models often are too far east with the banding in these setups. Boxing day, feb 2006, countless others, banding sets up 50 miles further west than progged 48 before the storm. This isn't a miller B like Jan 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 <br />would the variabilities be in a good way for the coast or bad?<br /> Not to get into sensible wx impacts, but depending on how those players play out, the timing of 500mb closure and SLP capture could wiggle either way and you might have a different outcome, especially for folks on the fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not to get into sensible wx impacts, but depending on how those players play out, the timing of 500mb closure and SLP capture could wiggle either way and you might have a different outcome, especially for folks on the fringes. Agreed. Since we are still 48 HR out, I think we see another 50-75 mile shift, either northwest or southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 remember that models often are too far east with the banding in these setups. Boxing day, feb 2006, countless others, banding sets up 50 miles further west than progged 48 before the storm. This isn't a miller B like Jan 11. Exactly! Heavier bands tend tousually be focusd 25-50 miles north and west of where they are modeled. NYC and NW suburbs are sitting VERY pretty right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 speed was never the issue with this...its not like the models are trending faster with the storm. This issue is dynamics dynamics dynamics...If everything lines up in time we're good. If its early we're probably good too. If its late congrats SNE or maybe CC. I tend to think based on the seasonal trends, that things will come together just in time for us, and if anyone were to be worried it should be the DC-BAL crowd not the PHL-NYC crowd. Oh, I'm not worried, just noting some of the guidance changes over the last few days. More cold, less qpf , weaker cyclone, and a much faster wake up Thurs morning to bright sunshine type of system (assuming the GFS and NAM have this nailed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Exactly! Heavier bands tend tousually be focusd 25-50 miles north and west of where they are modeled. NYC and NW suburbs are sitting VERY pretty right now LOL would you expect something different based on how this winter has gone so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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