tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Indeed. Looks like a lot of the area (via soundings) don't get below freezing at the surface until hour 60 or so. That's including any dynamic cooling that we might see. Regardless, not worried about soundings or anything as of yet. LP track looks decent. i think why things are delayed in terms of colling down, is because the dynamics and heavier precip arent uniform yet, its basically all over the place. Once they get going the 850s and bl drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i think why things are delayed in terms of colling down, is because the dynamics and heavier precip arent uniform yet, its basically all over the place. Once they get going the 850s and bl drop. Yes. I'm just worried about the timing of this now. The slower this thing crawls up here, the more the mid levels will warm (900-850 look to warm more than the surface) which is a bit concerning for areas in Jersey for some sort of snow > rain > ice > snow, as the low departs and we get those much needed kicking winds back in our favor. Then again, with wherever these convective bands set up could also spell some problems as well if h85-95 are warm. Too big of a warm layer will just spit rain or freezing rain out at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 00z EURO Snow equivalent (not bothering with .1" again scale only goes .1" to 1" and every inch there on) 1" South Border Greenville, DE going west just south of PA/MD Border thru Rising Sun, MD, just north of Manchester, MD, turning Northwest to near Shippensburg, PA Western Border Shippensburg, PA running northeast (several miles north of Harrisburg, PA) Millersburg, PA to Mount Carmel, PA Passng a few miles south of Wilkes Barre, PA through the Catskills, in NY, to Albany, NY into Green Mountain Forrest in VT Eastern Border Greenville, DE right Thru but encompassing most of Philadelphia (less airport area) following Deleaware River to the east side of Trenton, NJ to East Brunswick NJ south of Staten Island coming on LI shore at JFK to Hicksville, LI exiting LI at Sound Beach coming on shore At New Haven, CT All places within that band receive at least 1" liquid equivalent of snowfall according to 00z run cities in this band: Philly, York, Allentown, Harrisburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Tamaqua, Hazleton, Trenton, Edison, Newark, all of NYC Jersey City White Plains, Yonkers Poughkeepsie. There are no pockets of 2" in the northeast according to the model and again there is no scale from .1" thru .9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How reliable is this? Philly seems to be right on the edge of the 850 0deg line, but these figures seems to suggest NW philly will encounter primarily snow. Any thoughts? Looks like Reading may be in the snow cone on this one. 00z EURO Snow equivalent (not bothering with .1" again scale only goes .1" to 1" and every inch there on) 1" South Border Greenville, DE going west just south of PA/MD Border thru Rising Sun, MD, just north of Manchester, MD, turning Northwest to near Shippensburg, PA Western Border Shippensburg, PA running northeast (several miles north of Harrisburg, PA) Millersburg, PA to Mount Carmel, PA Passng a few miles south of Wilkes Barre, PA through the Catskills, in NY, to Albany, NY into Green Mountain Forrest in VT Eastern Border Greenville, DE right Thru but encompassing most of Philadelphia (less airport area) following Deleaware River to the east side of Trenton, NJ to East Brunswick NJ south of Staten Island coming on LI shore at JFK to Hicksville, LI exiting LI at Sound Beach coming on shore At New Haven, CT All places within that band receive at least 1" liquid equivalent of snowfall according to 00z run cities in this band: Philly, York, Allentown, Harrisburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Tamaqua, Hazleton, Trenton, Edison, Newark, all of NYC Jersey City White Plains, Yonkers Poughkeepsie. There are no pockets of 2" in the northeast according to the model and again there is no scale from .1" thru .9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Linda Church on channel 11 and Shea on channel 5 seems like they want to nail the coffin on this storm for NYC; they both mention that it will be mostly rain with minimal snow accumulations for NYC. The only model supporting their call is the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Linda Church on channel 11 and Shea on channel 5 seems like they want to nail the coffin on this storm for NYC; they both mention that it will be mostly rain with minimal snow accumulations for NYC. The only model supporting their call is the GGEM. The media once again doing a bang up job in NYC on a winter 2010-2011 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How reliable is this? Philly seems to be right on the edge of the 850 0deg line, but these figures seems to suggest NW philly will encounter primarily snow. Any thoughts? Looks like Reading may be in the snow cone on this one. This is the first winter that Accu pro has had qpf for the EURO let alone this snowfall, scale, which should be a real snowfall scale as it goes up to 18" but they obviously haven't converted it to one that factors is the standard 10:1 ratio (this happened a number of years ago with thei NAM and GFS snowfall plots), those plots match up with other snowfall plot outputs such as WXcaster, RaleighWX and Storm Vista (more conservative that Wxcaster clown maps though) snowfall plots in general aren't very accurate especially this far out. In a way that's kind of why I like this scale though because it doesn't go into the details, a .5" band would be nice to seperate a light snowfall from a moderate to to heave one. Im doing a comparison now of the 6z NAM to give an idea Wxcaster clown maps were posted earlier in this thread according to the Accu Pro map according to WXcaster there are 10" bands at 10:1 and higher to but the Accupro maps are more conservative only showing max 6-8" bands, so there would be no 1" line, as for what goes into sorting out the snow water equivalent for the EURO I can't say, because I don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The media once again doing a bang up job in NYC on a winter 2010-2011 snowstorm. Yeah, I agree. It's kind of ironic that Linda Church was so bullish on the January 11 snowstorm for NYC that ended up giving NYC between 7-9". At less than 72 hours out from that storm, similar to the time range we are in now with the upcoming storm on the 26-27, she predicted 10-18" for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have zero confidence in the NYC weather media with the exception of a couple of meteorologists like Nick Gregory, Lee Goldberg, and Craig Allen. In most cases I feel that the NYC weather media doesn't lay out all the possibilities with a particular storm, especially something like this storm where there are so many possibilities. To just call for rain without outlining the other possibilities and scenarios is just ridiculous and is my feeling why alot of times the general public is unprepared. The media once again doing a bang up job in NYC on a winter 2010-2011 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, I agree. It's kind of ironic that Linda Church was so bullish on the January 11 snowstorm for NYC that ended up giving NYC between 7-9". At less than 72 hours out from that storm, similar to the time range we are in now with the upcoming storm on the 26-27, she predicted 10-18" for NYC metro. This is an event where if you do not have extensive experience forecasting looks very much like a rain event...sort of how the depictions 2-3 days ago looked very snowy when they were actually rainy....the dynamic cooling events like 3/15/99 or 4/1996 are easily missed alot of the time by amateur or TV forecasters....Linda Church has been around forever though I'm not sure she is a real meteorologist or not even after all these years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is an event where if you do not have extensive experience forecasting looks very much like a rain event...sort of how the depictions 2-3 days ago looked very snowy when they were actually rainy....the dynamic cooling events like 3/15/99 or 4/1996 are easily missed alot of the time by amateur or TV forecasters....Linda Church has been around forever though I'm not sure she is a real meteorologist or not even after all these years. It would also be really tough for the average NYer to get on board a rainy 2-day forecast with temps hovering around zero f this morning (and below in the burbs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Don't know if anyone posted this early morning's update from Mt. Holly. Great discussion: HERE IS NOW ENOUGH INFORMATION (WITH THE 0000 UTC GFS COMING ON BOARD) IN THE ENSEMBLE INFORMATION TO HAVE A GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A STORM THAT WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 0000 UTC NAM...WHICH MOST OF THE AREA IS A NEAR MISS...IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 2100 UTC SREF ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IS LARGELY DISCARDED FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE (COMPOSED OF OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE INFORMATION)...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT COMES OUT OF THE GULF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PASS EAST OF THE DELAWARE COAST WEDNESDAY...AND PASS THE NEW JERSEY COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE 850 MB LOW LOOKS SIMILAR...AND THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IT WOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO BECOME PART OF THE CIRCULATION BACK TO I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACCEPTING THE ABOVE PREMISE...THE FRONT SIDE OF THE EVENT WILL BE LARGELY A WARMER ONE FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-95...AND MORE WINTRY NORTHWEST OF IT. THIS WILL BE THE FRAMEWORK FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FORECAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL FAR FROM A DEFINITIVE SCENARIO...AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED WITH TIME. THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER TUESDAY NIGHT...AFFECTING MAINLY DELAWARE AND SOUTHERNMOST NEW JERSEY. A BRIEF BIT OF CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO DROP NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MOST SPOTS...BUT AS OF NOW IT WOULD APPEAR PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WOULD BE RAIN WHERE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD ADVANCE NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...COVERING MOST AREAS BY EVENING. THE UNKNOWN HERE IS FAR BACK INTO THE COLDER AIR THE PRECIPITATION GETS. RIGHT NOW...THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT WESTERNMOST ZONES WILL GET INTO THE PRECIPITATION...AND THAT THE COLUMN SHOULD BE COULD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THESE AREAS. QPF WILL BE ANOTHER QUESTION MARK. AT THIS TIME...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY...SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY IS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO REMAIN SOLID. IN THESE AREAS...BLENDED MODEL QPF GETS THESE AREAS TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. THIS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON WARMER AIR NOT GETTING THIS FAR NORTHWEST. THIS IS FAR FROM DEFINITIVE...AS PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY YET BECOME A PROBLEM...BUT BANDING NORTHWEST OF THE CLOSED LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW COULD GET ENOUGH QPF FOR WARNING SNOW HERE. CLOSER TO I-95...THE PICTURE BECOMES MURKIER. THE COLUMN WILL BE UNDERGOING WARMING...SO THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES COULD NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...BUT AFTER THIS IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE. FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY... ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. FINALLY...SOUTHEAST OF I-95....THE FRONT END OF THE EVENT (WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING) LOOKS LIKE A RAIN EVENT. THE COLUMNS WARMS ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION...AND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WARM TOO. BANDED PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH... COULD MEAN HEAVY RAIN FOR DELAWARE AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. PERHAPS THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE EVENT MAY BE LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME...IT WOULD APPEAR AS DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN COULD LEAD TO A CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DURING THIS TIME. HOW MUCH OF THE BANDING WILL BE LEFT MAY DETERMINE IF ACCUMULATING SNOW CAN FALL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD SEE 45 TO 50 KNOTS OF WIND UNDER THE INVERSION AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL AWAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kborne Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Am I missing something?. Mt. Holly has precip amounts at 1/4 & 3/4 inch ........this is for the abe area....... they are forecasting precip for over 24 hours..seems low to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Am I missing something?. Mt. Holly has precip amounts at 1/4 & 3/4 inch ........this is for the abe area....... they are forecasting precip for over 24 hours..seems low to me The uncertainty between this: and this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Analogs covering the Gulf and East coast at 60 hours as the system is ready to turn the corner...I accidentally posted the wrong one earlier. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=CENT&model=GFS212&fhr=060&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The CRAS is right where you want it to be at this point: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The CRAS is right where you want it to be at this point: As is the 06Z NOGAPS....as a matter of fact you might want to see the CRAS be a bit more inland than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 One thing I've noticed is that the 06Z NAM and GFS have, in general, backed the northern stream upstream energy up into the northern plains from the Midwest (the 00ZGFS had it over IL). The 00Z Euro looked had it further northwest like that and we know how that turned out.I shouldn't fail to mention, however, that overall, the models' depiction of the upstream kickers in BOTH streams is inconsistent from model to model and run to run. Hard to put too much stock in anything with this much variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Morning update from Elliot Abrams at AccuWX for Philly: Storm coming too close to the coast, floods area with mild Atlantic air, rain at the height of the storm if not throughout the duration of the storm - temps into the 40's Change to wet snow still not off the table but not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Current Wxsim (module/program not a model - LOL) based on 6z NAM/GFS for NW Chester County IP/ZR arrives by 2pm on Wednesday temp 30.4 Moderate IP by 6pm with Temp at 29.0 Moderate Snow mixed with IP at 9pm with the temp at 29.1 Snow tapers off by 1am Total Snow accumulation (snow + IP) 2" or 3" Temps never rise above 30.5 during the time precip is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Current Wxsim (module/program not a model - LOL) based on 6z NAM/GFS for NW Chester County thanks for posting your info. i always look forward to seeing what Wxsim outputs per latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 They're talking about it here too..for some reason people seem to have the idea that this is an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks Q-town! Paul thanks for posting your info. i always look forward to seeing what Wxsim outputs per latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 thanks for posting your info. i always look forward to seeing what Wxsim outputs per latest runs. Yup agreed...nowhere near my location but always gives me a good idea of what's going down. Thanks a bunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice to see the morning crew in full swing. SREFs shortly...hopefully they cool off a bit. They might not though, at least on the means...they were a mesoscale wreck yesterday and this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 First post here. Very long time lurker. This is simply a note of thanks to all of you. I have learned an extraordinary amount from so many of you and look forward to that continuing. I was accepted to PSU for Meteorology and never went --- but have kept it as an intense hobby I love. I know a good bit --- but nothing like so many of you. Therefore, my posts will be limited as I will 'know my role' in a forum filled with so much knowledge. However, I felt it necessary to show some form of gratitude, even if I spend the vast majority of my time lurking in the background and learning. Cheers, Steven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 09z SREFs are still wet..and a good bit colder as well. That's certainly nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 First post here. Very long time lurker. This is simply a note of thanks to all of you. I have learned an extraordinary amount from so many of you and look forward to that continuing. I was accepted to PSU for Meteorology and never went --- but have kept it as an intense hobby I love. I know a good bit --- but nothing like so many of you. Therefore, my posts will be limited as I will 'know my role' in a forum filled with so much knowledge. However, I felt it necessary to show some form of gratitude, even if I spend the vast majority of my time lurking in the background and learning. Cheers, Steven. Steven, I share the same sentiments. I have learned and am still learning a ton from posters and meteorologists on this forum. It is truly a resource which has no end. Also, post more often! We could use more of people like yourself contributing. Take care buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 However, I felt it necessary to show some form of gratitude, even if I spend the vast majority of my time lurking in the background and learning. We accept checks and money orders. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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