Mitchel Volk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Mitchel, Wed night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Have to say that I am pleased with the trend. I still am not convinced that immediate coastal areas will see appreciable snow with this. Best dynamics seem to lift north and east by the time the bl cools completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With 36.1" snowfall to date, New York City currently has the 6th highest October-January figure. Should 3.9" or more fall, NYC will reach 40" or more snowfall before February for only the fifth time. The 10 highest figures are: 1. 44.9", 1947-48 2. 41.1", 1872-73 3. 40.5", 1904-05 and 1995-96 5. 37.1", 2003-04 6. 36.1", 2010-11 7. 35.3", 1960-61 8. 33.5", 1876-77 and 1922-23 10. 32.8", 1883-84 with an outside chance of beating the record...we'd have to get 8.7, but for second we'd only need 5. I think we got first...but thats just a hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With 36.1" snowfall to date, New York City currently has the 6th highest October-January figure. Should 3.9" or more fall, NYC will reach 40" or more snowfall before February for only the fifth time. The 10 highest figures are: 1. 44.9", 1947-48 2. 41.1", 1872-73 3. 40.5", 1904-05 and 1995-96 5. 37.1", 2003-04 6. 36.1", 2010-11 7. 35.3", 1960-61 8. 33.5", 1876-77 and 1922-23 10. 32.8", 1883-84 well if we get more than 9" with this system we'll set the record....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'd give this a 20 percent chance of verification. Too much mixing to at least sleet midday on Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 well if we get more than 9" with this system we'll set the record....... which would be epically unbelievable because we are clearly using like 150 years of climate info...woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just knocked a few back...took a look at the NAM. Good start to the night. How's everybody doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heres the clown map for the 0z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm going to have to request that this post be deleted for not offering any analysis or insight into the upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With 36.1" snowfall to date, New York City currently has the 6th highest October-January figure. Should 3.9" or more fall, NYC will reach 40" or more snowfall before February for only the fifth time. The 10 highest figures are: 1. 44.9", 1947-48 2. 41.1", 1872-73 3. 40.5", 1904-05 and 1995-96 5. 37.1", 2003-04 6. 36.1", 2010-11 7. 35.3", 1960-61 8. 33.5", 1876-77 and 1922-23 10. 32.8", 1883-84 Hey Don- I posted this last night- my guess, we wind up #1 on the list by thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i was away for over 1hr and come back to this.. wow... lets see what the gfs has in store for us on the 12z glenn just spoke.. new data coming in.... ps.. steve you cant win ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With 36.1" snowfall to date, New York City currently has the 6th highest October-January figure. Should 3.9" or more fall, NYC will reach 40" or more snowfall before February for only the fifth time. The 10 highest figures are: 1. 44.9", 1947-48 2. 41.1", 1872-73 3. 40.5", 1904-05 and 1995-96 5. 37.1", 2003-04 6. 36.1", 2010-11 7. 35.3", 1960-61 8. 33.5", 1876-77 and 1922-23 10. 32.8", 1883-84 we need 4.0" to get to 20" for the second straight month...The only other times this happened was Jan/Feb 1978 and 1996... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just amazing how this system is setting up in almost perfect shape to give I-95 nice snows in an otherwise unfavorable set-up aloft without the strong blocking and warm air. my goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Classic deformation banding signal..where have I seen this before? Great signal on tonights NAM..especially considering the GFS and ECMWF as well. Look at the 10m wind direction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Classic deformation banding signal..where have I seen this before? Great signal on tonights NAM..especially considering the GFS and ECMWF as well. Look at the 10m wind direction as well. for my area, due north- how can it possibly do anything but snow with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I am the clown waving from the 12-15" area, nice to look at but will NEVER happen. I dunno. I'm here waving from the classic, now typical, sharp NW cutoff. lol. Looks like the past 2 big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gotta give credit to mitchel volk here because hes been harping this for the past couple weeks...but in our snowiest winters somehow it just seems to always work out, good set-up, bad set-up, the snow gods don't care, they want to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 for my area, due north- how can it possibly do anything but snow with that? that and the 850's are like -3 and the freezing line is sitting over your head. doubt its anythign but heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 The amount of SREF members that have a very strong CCB are now extremely impressive...I'm about to cave in and toss 's on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpickett Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sending in the aircraft-good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice to see how the clown map dumps 10+ right to the coast of LI and C NJ, I've seen this kind of thing happen before on the coast so long as the wind is not directly off ocean, CCB does it's job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0z RGEM is exactly like the Nam. Maybe it's a hair warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Now you guys know I don't complain much, but seriously. Just when you think things couldn't get worse.... I know those maps aren't reliable, but if that were to verify, it would just be horrible. I mean 35 miles from nearly nothing here to 8-10 in the Lehigh Valley. based on other guidance that max snowfall is likely to be shifted north and west by about 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 heres the clown map for the 0z nam with ratios factored in it will be less snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0z RGEM is exactly like the Nam. Maybe it's a hair warmer. It is usually warmer so no worries there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Now you guys know I don't complain much, but seriously. Just when you think things couldn't get worse.... I know those maps aren't reliable, but if that were to verify, it would just be horrible. I mean 35 miles from nearly nothing here to 8-10 in the Lehigh Valley. lol you just have to laugh at this point. A la nina winter that is supposed to be rain for the coast and snow for the interior is just completely the opposite this year. I'm never following ENSO forecasts again. NEPA snow hole lives on. Maybe I'll be able to scrape a few inches out of this, but you might see nothing but flurries if the 00Z NAM were to verify. Definitely amazing if 3 major storms in one winter occur with this sharp western gradient. Of course it's just these runs that are firing us up about the issue. Still could certainly dump on us. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Voyager, maybe im crazy, but i still like your spot for this storm...sure you will get less qpf than some coastal locales, but you will be colder, prolly all snow, and better ratios. the NAM is still playing catch up, more room to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM precip type map at 48, very nice. Also, check out the vv map. That is a very nice setup and almost spot on to the NAM, maybe a little nod to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 While phl and ilg are mostly snow on 00z NAM - both near 12". There are 3-4 hours of freezing rain at beginning and middle of storm when qpf is light. Surface never goes above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Another view of the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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