RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Mt. Holly has a new forecast discussion out as of 8:13PM: ***Winter storm likely from 10z Wednesday to 10z thursday*** 12z GFS UKMET rgem ggem model guidance confirms the past several days of gefs and more recently the sref trends for a substantial winter weather event. Please reference the NCEP discussions on model choice...winter weather and quantitative precipitation forecast. Essentially... we will be in the developing comma head of a Gulf Coast intensifying short wave that lifts NE into a compact closed low through the middle Atlantic coast that has deformation zone banding on the southeast edge of the deeper relative humidity ..looks unstable aloft in that region per GFS.. for late Wednesday aftn/evening. That could mean decent snowfall rates of an inch or so an hour in an area that will have less than 1 inch of frozen water equivalent quantitative precipitation forecast. The i95 region looks like a mess with rain/sleet and some snow changing to all snow as the low pulls away in the evening. Looks like all snow /possibly a prd of sleet mix/ from somewhere near kukt north and west....certainly Allentown north and west. Southeast New Jersey and southeast 2/3rds del should be mostly rain with maybe a little ice at the start near dawn Wednesday and maybe a 0.5 to 3 inch event snow event in the backlash comma head rotating south behind the departing low Wednesday evening. thats been there since 415pm, been posted here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 not sure why everyone is bashing Upton or CBS mets because they are conservative right now. 18z was one model run. The 0z run of the NAM/GFS/Euro are huge tonight. Thats where first forecasts will be based upon plus tomorrow 12z runs. Why go bullish right now and then have to backtrack if the 0z runs have pulled back. Mets are right now to flip flop with every model run no one is basing their comments of of what the 18z models showed. The 12z Uk/Euro/GGEM all have meaningful borderline significant back end snows for the region. With the Euro almost 0.7 in qpf as snow for NYC. I'd say thats significant. I don't have a problem with being conservative but at least mention the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 not sure why everyone is bashing Upton or CBS mets because they are conservative right now. 18z was one model run. The 0z run of the NAM/GFS/Euro are huge tonight. Thats where first forecasts will be based upon plus tomorrow 12z runs. Why go bullish right now and then have to backtrack if the 0z runs have pulled back. Mets are right now to flip flop with every model run I can understand Upton but CBS? It won't snow because it will be 40 on Wednseday? Really? How can you even begin to defend that? That's not being conservative that's just plain stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 add the SREF's to the slew of models showing significant back end snow potential. 0.25-0.5 PHL up to most of jersey with NYC north and east sitting on the 0.5+ line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I can understand Upton but CBS? It won't snow because it will be 40 on Wednseday? Really? How can you even begin to defend that? That's not being conservative that's just plain stupid. Exactly and it is comments like that that anger people in the general public and gets people fired because of being too one sided and then busting miserably whether the one-sidedness be in favor or not in favor of snow. See March 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Exactly and it is comments like that that anger people in the general public and gets people fired because of being too one sided and then busting miserably whether it be in favor or not in favor of snow. See March 2001. and you can be damn sure that if you busted the other way real bad to the point where the public was put in danger they'd be canned as well.... edit: i think we're in agreement lol I didn't see that you said one side or the other. But ya thats why it pays to lay out the possibilities without using language that scares the public, unless of course it's necessary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Latest Wxsim module/program based off 18z data continues the trend toward more significant snow and ice for the NW Philly burbs - total snow and sleet totals are forecasted to be in the 7" to 9" range...temps do not get above 31 degrees. Here is the breakdown Light Sleet during the day...little accumulation by eve rush Heavy IP toward rush hour temp 29.8 Heavy Snow by 830pm continuing through midnight Total Snow and IP accumulation in the 7 to 9" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2m temps on the SREFS look solid for places to the N/W of the city...the winds really hurt eastern CT and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 what do you want them to do put totals out already...even Craig Allen did not give much analysis in his radio disco. Tonight and tomorrow morning will be a different story if the models come in good for snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2m temps on the SREFS look solid for places to the N/W of the city...the winds really hurt eastern CT and LI SREFs have been trending colder and they seem to have been consistent with the precip shield and SLP placement over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WOW. 21 z srefs are huge for northwest of nyc. much colder than 15z srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 and you can be damn sure that if you busted the other way real bad to the point where the public was put in danger they'd be canned as well.... edit: i think we're in agreement lol I didn't see that you said one side or the other. But ya thats why it pays to lay out the possibilities without using language that scares the public, unless of course it's necessary Lol, sorry about that, just realized it sounded better when I added the extra one-sided, lol. Someone who is reporting to the masses should always leave the door open for multiple possibilities and if they don't they just setting themselves up for trouble down the road come verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 21 hr 00Z NAM 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Through 24 hrs, nam is a little more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Latest Wxsim module/program based off 18z data continues the trend toward more significant snow and ice for the NW Philly burbs - total snow and sleet totals are forecasted to be in the 7" to 9" range...temps do not get above 31 degrees. Here is the breakdown Light Sleet during the day...little accumulation by eve rush Heavy IP toward rush hour temp 29.8 Heavy Snow by 830pm continuing through midnight Total Snow and IP accumulation in the 7 to 9" range You know Paul, if we add 7-9" of sleet and snow to this snow pack, we're going to start challenging 93-94 pretty soon. I've never seen a snowpack so diverse and solid due to the variety of events and persistent cold that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 33hr closed at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Can we please keep the TV met convo out of this thread. I could really care less what the blonde chick on ch 11 is saying.......if the forcast is right or wrong....we all can make our final conclusions off this board and the models we look out. I have not watch tv met forcast in years......the mets on this board are the ones i care to get a opion froms amen....arguing about media outlet predictions and OCM should be here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM is way amped up, closed off quicker as well...this will be wetter, but will it be too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The Nam is more amped but it keeps moving the high over Quebec into better position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 39: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's that little utter vort over the southwest on 30, our former kicker slowing this thing down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 check it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM looks good so far 850 and 500mb lows in good position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hi Greg, Agree...it sounds like little chance of any prolonged warm ups....to say this has been an unexpected wintery winter would be an understatement! Take care, Paul You know Paul, if we add 7-9" of sleet and snow to this snow pack, we're going to start challenging 93-94 pretty soon. I've never seen a snowpack so diverse and solid due to the variety of events and persistent cold that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What effect will the h5 over New Mex. have on our storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Pretty cold this run at H85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nam develops a great northerly wind north of the cities and keep temps below 32. This run is very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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