A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Who was it that compared this to Xmas 2002. I think it was ALEX, and I'm really liking that analog right about now. Thanks man-- two other analogs that should be given some consideration are Jan 1987 and Dec 2003. The latter for the two part scenario, albeit we probably wont get snow with part 1 like we did in Dec 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ryan, imho yes it is. If this was all together as one solid piece. The front end part may limit the backend snows do to how much rain would of fallen already. The ground would be pretty wet and would take a while for the snow to accumulate. If we have some of our snowcover still left, it would probably just accumulate on top of that. Besides that, its been below freezing for days, so hopefully it wouldnt take long to start accumulating, especially with high rates and a night time event. One of the few times you'll see rooting on a night time snowfall lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Who was it that compared this to Xmas 2002. I think it was ALEX, and I'm really liking that analog right about now. There was something for everyone with that storm.I had a thunderstorm around 11:30 am and then a change to heavy snow after dark. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/readtext.php?file=pns/122502.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 didn't expect to get home and see that much snow printed out on the clown maps that far east in ocean and monmouth counties in nj. Based on where we started from, a low driving up the plain ala GGEM before the weekend, i'd certainly sign up for whats being shown at this moment. (granted it is only one run). Is it Safe to start thinking about getting excited in northern coastal NJ? I can't help but to be guarded with this setup and the ocean so close by. But wow at today so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think upton is being very smart. It's a highly changeable situation; rain to snow scenarios rarely work out well for the city, with some noteable exceptions; and we're still 48 hours away from the main event. If 0z models come in strong, they will change their tune with 4am update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think upton is being very smart. It's a highly changeable situation; rain to snow scenarios rarely work out well for the city, with some noteable exceptions; and we're still 48 hours away from the main event. If 0z models come in strong, they will change their tune with 4am update. Yeah, its good to keep expectations in check at this point. Anything more than 2-3 inches has to be considered a bonus for us. The thing I personally like is that its a rain to snow situation instead of the reverse. Because the opposite would really suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think upton is being very smart. It's a highly changeable situation; rain to snow scenarios rarely work out well for the city, with some noteable exceptions; and we're still 48 hours away from the main event. If 0z models come in strong, they will change their tune with 4am update. Yes. There are plenty of news cycles to get the word out if this type of situation occurred. Plus, most of this is an overnight period so low impact. The only thing I don't like is to say anything is on the table and then say low probability of warning criteria, a little bit of a mixed message, however, probably semantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Was pleasantly surprised when Lee G on WABC threw out 3"-6" for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Was pleasantly surprised when Lee G on WABC threw out 3"-6" for the city. Yeah I heard that too lol-- they were the last to "cave in" but even they have started to talk about a rain to snow scenario. Nick Gregory mentioned the chance for significant accumulations in NYC but wont give out an accumulation forecast until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe im looking at this wrong or what not. The initial low that moves off hse or orf to the bm, is really nothing for us. Its the closed h5 low and how strong and the proximity of that h5 low that determines if we get a good thump or not. Compare the 0z gfs last night at h5 at hr 72. Notice the closed h5 low is barely closed and is pretty far south, thus the ccb got going later and further east. Now compare it to the 18z run at hr 54. Notice how much stronger it is and further north. This is the real key in my eyes if we are going to see a good thump on the backend. The stronger that h5 low is and track will determine it. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think upton is being very smart. It's a highly changeable situation; rain to snow scenarios rarely work out well for the city, with some noteable exceptions; and we're still 48 hours away from the main event. If 0z models come in strong, they will change their tune with 4am update. upton is being conservative as usual and you're right about these rain to snow situations rarely working out in the city. But there are many people who live to the north and west of the city in OKX's forecasting zones. Word for word, upton said low chance of ANYONE seeing warning criteria snow, and that is why I believe they are not approaching this situation correctly. City on east I agree. West and north? completely disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks man-- two other analogs that should be given some consideration are Jan 1987 and Dec 2003. The latter for the two part scenario, albeit we probably wont get snow with part 1 like we did in Dec 2003. These closed low events make things more interesting for us. It's nice to see it showing up on CIPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 12z runs tomorrow with the recon from the GOM should nail this down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 These closed low events make things more interesting for us. It's nice to see it showing up on CIPS. The quicker it can close the better because it slows down and also is more likely to shrink the 850/700mb low centers and pull the colder air in from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 upton is being conservative as usual and you're right about these rain to snow situations rarely working out in the city. But there are many people who live to the north and west of the city in OKX's forecasting zones. Word for word, upton said low chance of ANYONE seeing warning criteria snow, and that is why I believe they are not approaching this situation correctly. City on east I agree. West and north? completely disagree I think that was on an AFD...when the average John Q Citizen non-weenie starts viewing those I'll give you a thousand bucks. Thats why its a forecast discussion and not a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 These closed low events make things more interesting for us. It's nice to see it showing up on CIPS. Yeah these analogs are a lot better than the ones from a few days ago, when the only positive analog we had was Jan 1987 and that was close to the bottom of the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Christmas Day '02 is the top 500 mb analog on CIPS: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=048&flg=new&sort=500HGHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The quicker it can close the better because it slows down and also is more likely to shrink the 850/700mb low centers and pull the colder air in from the NW. Wednesday night should be interesting to watch.Some pretty good wind potential also showing up especially right near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The quicker it can close the better because it slows down and also is more likely to shrink the 850/700mb low centers and pull the colder air in from the NW. Do you think the 18z GFS was a best case scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unknown Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM forecast for 0z Current, stronger and furthur north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Christmas Day '02 is the top 500 mb analog on CIPS: http://www.eas.slu.e...ew&sort=500HGHT How often are these updated? Like 3 hours ago it was #3 with Jan 1987 #1 lol. Nvmd, the other one was a 72 hr analog, this is 48 hr A couple more analogs that are nice are 12/5/2002 and Jan 1987 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe im looking at this wrong or what not. The initial low that moves off hse or orf to the bm, is really nothing for us. Its the closed h5 low and how strong and the proximity of that h5 low that determines if we get a good thump or not. Compare the 0z gfs last night at h5 at hr 72. Notice the closed h5 low is barely closed and is pretty far south, thus the ccb got going later and further east. Now compare it to the 18z run at hr 54. Notice how much stronger it is and further north. This is the real key in my eyes if we are going to see a good thump on the backend. The stronger that h5 low is and track will determine it. Just my 2 cents. Good point...and since forecasting precisely where an h5 low will close off is dicey, would be why most forecasters I would trust are playing it conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe im looking at this wrong or what not. The initial low that moves off hse or orf to the bm, is really nothing for us. Its the closed h5 low and how strong and the proximity of that h5 low that determines if we get a good thump or not. Compare the 0z gfs last night at h5 at hr 72. Notice the closed h5 low is barely closed and is pretty far south, thus the ccb got going later and further east. Now compare it to the 18z run at hr 54. Notice how much stronger it is and further north. This is the real key in my eyes if we are going to see a good thump on the backend. The stronger that h5 low is and track will determine it. Just my 2 cents. I don't think you can separate the surface and h5 lows. They are integrally connected to form a complete storm system that impacts us. A strong vortmax and ULL with a displaced surface low is no good. You need them working in tandem. I agree that the proximity and orientation of the mid-level (and also upper level) low is what makes or breaks this storm for us. But that's because it also dictates the evolution of the surface and h7 lows. In fact I think h7 provides the best illustration for how and why we will get a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Do you think the 18z GFS was a best case scenario? No, the mid-levels could cool faster if we got more bombing going on while it was still south of the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't think you can separate the surface and h5 lows. They are integrally connected to form a complete storm system that impacts us. A strong vortmax and ULL with a displaced surface low is no good. You need them working in tandem. I agree that the proximity and orientation of the mid-level (and also upper level) low is what makes or breaks this storm for us. But that's because it also dictates the evolution of the surface and h7 lows. In fact I think h7 provides the best illustration for how and why we will get a good hit. I meant in terms of affects for our area with the first low. It seems like, from latest guidance that the 1st low and precip is really nothing. We are waiting for the ull to get entrenched into the system when things go kaboom. Obviously you need a surface low with the h5 low. But the location of that h5 ull is going to be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tombo I appreciate your response. Interestingly enough, Friday night Glenn's model (I'm not sure if you he uses one of the biggies or an in-house thing) had a double-barrel Low off the coast, with heavy snows pounding SE PA. I thought that was odd then. Of course, he also called it "the least reliable model" ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No, the mid-levels could cool faster if we got more bombing going on while it was still south of the NJ coast. Thanks, SG-- do you think there's a decent chance of that happening? Say, higher than 20%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Do you think the 18z GFS was a best case scenario? I think this event could be wetter AND colder. Or various mixed combinations like much wetter and a little warmer or a little drier and much colder. And a few of the next several models runs will likely show one of these possibilities. But I'd take the under on 10" of snow for NYC at this point. The 18z GFS is probably one of the better scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tombo I appreciate your response. Interestingly enough, Friday night Glenn's model (I'm not sure if you he uses one of the biggies or an in-house thing) had a double-barrel Low off the coast, with heavy snows pounding SE PA. I thought that was odd then. Of course, he also called it "the least reliable model" ha yea he usually goes with the euro, i mean why would you go against it. Starting with tonights runs, you start giving more credit it to the nam because it starts to get into its wheelhouse under 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tombo I appreciate your response. Interestingly enough, Friday night Glenn's model (I'm not sure if you he uses one of the biggies or an in-house thing) had a double-barrel Low off the coast, with heavy snows pounding SE PA. I thought that was odd then. Of course, he also called it "the least reliable model" ha Haha that reminds me of something I saw back in the early 90s. Bob Harris on WPIX was talking about a cold front that was supposed to move through the area with light rain changing to flurries and he said that there was like a 1 in 20 chance a low could form along it and stall out and give us hours of snow. He said that kind of thing he was talking about probably only happens once every couple of decades, and guess what happened the next day. SG do you remember this storm? The temps were marginal during the day so it was a wet snow but it got heavier as the temps dropped near the evening. We ended up with 8 inches of a very heavy wet snow that lasted for like 18 hours, although it only accumulated for the last 8 hours or so. The accumulating snowfall was confined to EWR and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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