A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Honestly I don't recall. I just remember I discounted the warm EC surface temps and got burned by it. I remember that was one of the storms you came east for and only got 8 inches or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I remember that was one of the storms you came east for and only got 8 inches or so Yes.. it was my biggest bust of the year. I think I went either 10-14 or 12-16 and ended up with 8. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Biggest problem with that sounding is that 700 mb temps are above -10C. Even if flake production is above that level, there can be a lot of riming lower down to ruin the ratios. Yep, it's noticeable. But I'm sure people won't be complaining about ratios with the heavy dumping that's ongoing at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If TheTrials is right we'll be in on it as welll. Perhaps. Hour 54 sounding for Tamaqua is very similar to that beauty he showed for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Perhaps. Hour 54 sounding for Tamaqua is very similar to that beauty he showed for NYC. Yeah, 700mb rh looks good. Hopefully we can get QPF to spread west. Next frame it collapses east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 It would be amazing if it was a storm that got you more excited than 12/26. If im ever more excited than I was 12/24-12/25...consider it the apocalypse of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Biggest problem with that sounding is that 700 mb temps are above -10C. Even if flake production is above that level, there can be a lot of riming lower down to ruin the ratios. KNYC yes, but 700 cools pretty quick at the soundings stations to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 fwiw the gfs ens are further se with the initial storm, but show that 2nd piece over the area as pretty strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 the ens show .1-.25 from the first part...2nd part it has .4-.7 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 fwiw the gfs ens are further se with the initial storm, but show that 2nd piece over the area as pretty strong yes, that first piece would be hard to be anything more than slop that didn't stick, so its pretty inconsequential what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 the ens show .1-.25 from the first part...2nd part it has .4-.7 for the area How much of a gap is there between the two parts and when does the second part start-- hour 57? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yes, that first piece would be hard to be anything more than slop that didn't stick, so its pretty inconsequential what it does. its only show a tenth or 2 of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro ens are over 1" of QPF for NYC...all snow, colder than 0z. First 6 hours are a mix on the island, but everyone goes over to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How much of a gap is there between the two parts and when does the second part start-- hour 57? per ens first part starts hrs 36-48 as lgt precip with prob a 4-6 hr break or just scattered showers....2nd part comes in after hr 48 to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 its only show a tenth or 2 of qpf how about the 6 hour frame leading up to 54. Decent QPF in there and I imagine that's not snow down in PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 per ens first part starts hrs 36-48 as lgt precip with prob a 4-6 hr break or just scattered showers....2nd part comes in after hr 48 to 60 I'm not sold on two distinctly separate periods of precipitation. I think there will be a light mix in the area by late morning with intermittent intensity until the steadier, heavier stuff movies in later in the afternoon. The idea of a true break in the action is still pretty fuzzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm not sold on two distinctly separate periods of precipitation. I think there will be a light mix in the area by late morning with intermittent intensity until the steadier, heavier stuff movies in later in the afternoon. The idea of a true break in the action is still pretty fuzzy. as long as the second piece with the actual surface low, 700, 850 and 500 come up as progged, it can do whatever it wants to before it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 the ens show .1-.25 from the first part...2nd part it has .4-.7 for the area Pretty consistent with previous runs. I'd really like to see a bump NW and wetter as we strip away the outliers and narrow the spread. Haven't seen it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yes, that first piece would be hard to be anything more than slop that didn't stick, so its pretty inconsequential what it does. Sounding for MBY looked like rain mixed with a little sleet for part 1. Hard to tell exactly for in between 54 and 60hrs, but looks like GFS shows the same wet snow bomb here...and it did for us on the 12z also. If it panned out exactly as on the GFS, I can only imagine the wailing and nashing of teeth in the rain areas waiting for that flip to heavy wet snow just past 54. Come to think of it, I watched the def band to my west for hours on 12/25/2002 while it was just spitting here...but it did eventually make it. Clarification: what I am calling part one might be different...I'm referring to the time prior to hour 54 before the CCB gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 as long as the second piece with the actual surface low, 700, 850 and 500 come up as progged, it can do whatever it wants to before it gets here. I'm a bit more greedy I guess. GFS shows a short duration thump, with an annoying cutoff on the NW side. With a bit more overrunning ahead of the low, this could be a longer duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Perhaps. Hour 54 sounding for Tamaqua is very similar to that beauty he showed for NYC. This one looks close too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z GFS http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc Most epic depiction of LR cold in a while... from days 7-14 NYC does not get above 22 degrees with multiple lows below 0. In la-la land, but continues the depiction of a continuation of the current MUCH below normal temperature regime through at least early February. More notably, NYC is likely snow by hour 54 and sees 10-12" of concrete this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 strong signal from the 18z GEFS for a large and powerful deform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z GFS http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=knyc Most epic depiction of LR cold in a while... from days 7-14 NYC does not get above 22 degrees with multiple lows below 0. In la-la land, but continues the depiction of a continuation of the current MUCH below normal temperature regime through at least early February. More notably, NYC is likely snow by hour 54 and sees 10-12" of concrete this run. we'll probably get above freezing at least tomorrow and likely wednesday as well, but besides that I don't see above freezing temperatures for a while with at least -10 850's entrenched in the region for the foreseeable future, at least according to the GFS and EURO. Also the 18z GFS shows the pattern's potential with a massive +PNA and southern stream disturbance with a northern stream s/w riding down the eastern side of the PNA ridge looking to phase with out southern energy, just as the GFS truncates. Still produces a storm but it seems like its overrunning + a coastal graze. Either way this winter is shaping up to be amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z GFS http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=knyc Most epic depiction of LR cold in a while... from days 7-14 NYC does not get above 22 degrees with multiple lows below 0. In la-la land, but continues the depiction of a continuation of the current MUCH below normal temperature regime through at least early February. More notably, NYC is likely snow by hour 54 and sees 10-12" of concrete this run. Within a few hours of 54 I think there could be some sleet mixed in across the area. Small temp errors in either direction are common, and with a deep layer near freezing, it's reasonable to expect a little mixing. But the surface looks pretty cold from that point on. This might not be concrete at all. It's not going to be powdery with poor snowgrowth and temps near or just below freezing, but this shouldn't resemble a heavy spring snow pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Somone was talking about the 2002 xmas storm earlier today. #3 analogue from our friends at CIPS http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=072&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 strong signal from the 18z GEFS for a large and powerful deform. I don't see that signal. Most members are a bit too far east. And none are as wet as the operational. Though they probably wouldn't be, considering the lower resolution. But then I don't see how you could use them to pinpoint a signal for powerful deformation snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 JB just tweeted that the JMA is his model of choice for this storm. what are those models showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 One meteorological point in reference to questions about saturating the column: in general, precipitation is driven by supersaturation, i.e., when saturated parcels of air at the surface and lower levels of the atmosphere are subjected to momentum transport into the middle and even upper levels of the atmosphere ("vertical velocities" produced, typically from temperature/pressure gradients resulting from "colliding" low and high pressure systems), which are much colder and and when the saturated parcels cool, those parcels become "supersaturated" i.e., they temporarily hold more moisture (water vapor in air) than is thermodynamically favored (much like sweet tea can hold far more sugar in solution than thermodynamics would indicate - the sugar is supersaturated, but eevntually will come out of solution as sugar crystals, given the right impetus) and once supersaturation relief is initiated (often by seed nucleates in the atmosphere), these parcels can almost instantaneously convert the supersaturated portion of the water vapor into snow crystals via vapor deposition. Therefore, if all of the column becomes saturated, that means the column is moisture laden to the extent that it won't take much transport of saturated parcels of air upwards at almost any level to lead to snow growth - it's a measure of the "potential energy" available for snow growth. I'll admit my meteorology might be a little shaky, but my understanding of supersaturation-driven nucleation and crystallization phenomena is pretty advanced, as I do a lot of that work for a living in Pharma and the same processes we use for crystallizing organic molecules from solvents via supersaturation should apply to crystallizing snowflakes from air via supersaturation. Hope this helps a little. On another note, if Wednesday starts out relatively tranquil and rainy in the I-95 corridor and then we see a 6-hour period of hellacious snows as depicted and that period is anywhere around the afternoon rush hour, it's going to be an absolute disaster, like Jan 1987 was, when all the snow hit after everyone was safely ensconced at work. That's a case where either you get out early or stay late and let the idiots all get stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't see that signal. Most members are a bit too far east. And none are as wet as the operational. Though they probably wouldn't be, considering the lower resolution. But then I don't see how you could use them to pinpoint a signal for powerful deformation snows. large and powerful deform. band does not mean that every ensemble member shows as much as the OP. IMO 0.5+ that falls as snow on the backside could be considered large and strong given the situation. Almost every member shows this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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