IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM is very close to a similar solution if it would only consolidate that energy instead of spliting it. It makes all the difference between a MECS and just a brush for coastal sections. One would think this still has the potential to get even better 48 hrs out but I don't want to be greedy. My earlier statement about a potential HECS still being possible doesn't sound so foolish afterall? Love the trends so far with the 18z suite. Seems like we always go through a cycle with the GFS/NAM almost loosing the storm 72-96 hrs out only to slowly but steadily bring it back 48 hrs later. Finaly a storm this season with the potential to make >75% of the folks in our area and MA/NE happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 CCB from hell...just amazing. The initial WAA looks to start places S/E of NYC as rain, before everything crashes. Compared to 12z, the vort is alot stronger and more impressive....have to hope the other models follow suit tonight there are 2 things I worry about with this all to fragile situation. Based on where its showing the storm exploding I don't worry too much that it misses us to the north and east, but based on the fact that it will be a CCB, there is going to be a narrow band within the jackpot area that will pick up unreal amounts, if anything like the GFS plays out, maybe on the order of 12+ in 6 hours. Problem is, on either side of the heaviest band there will likely be some subsidence and the models right now are probably smoothing out QPF totals when in reality it'll probably be a large area of 0.5+ but a sweet spot that could, like I said, pick up some ridiculous amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this looks like a 2 part system. The first part is lgt sleet or frz rain or lgt rain....then as the ulll comes up it forms the ccb and rips from dc north yeah, the junk out ahead of is def. some type of light frozen, not snow, and then the 500 and 700 lows catch up to this thing and its like a match stick to dry hay, Boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SV's snowmaps show 8-12" for Philly up to Allentown, 12-18" for NYC LI and northern NJ 18-24" in SW CT 4-8" snows from Hagerstown, up to Harrisburg to Scranton , on the east side Delaware river to Trenton and then due east Hey do you have a link for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 RGEM,GGEM to an extent, Nam and now the GFS are splitting the storm into 2 pieces. Sounds like Dec 2003 but with less blocking obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 One more quick note on the CCB that forms. This is not a small system. It has deep inflow from atlantic and gulf. The precip associated directly with the 700 low will be big, not small. Look for a bigger than expected CCB area out of this thing, not the smaller type CCB from the last few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey do you have a link for this? Its a pay site but thats where the EURO pbp comes from as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow, this could be a huge disaster really from NYC northward...I don't know where they are going to even put the snow anymore here in Danbury. Of course, the Euro does have a good deal of mixing so we'll see how this plays out in the next 36 hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this looks like a 2 part system. The first part is lgt sleet or frz rain or lgt rain....then as the ulll comes up it forms the ccb and rips from dc north And this might be why the Euro was suggesting a 30 hour event the other day. It comes it two shots, not one long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 One more quick note on the CCB that forms. This is not a small system. It has deep inflow from atlantic and gulf. The precip associated directly with the 700 low will be big, not small. Look for a bigger than expected CCB area out of this thing, not the smaller type CCB from the last few storms. I didn't even think about that you're 100% right. This is going to be interesting to watch unfold, as so many storms this winter have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow, this could be a huge disaster really from NYC northward...I don't know where they are going to even put the snow anymore here in Danbury. Of course, the Euro does have a good deal of mixing so we'll see how this plays out in the next 36 hrs or so. The truth is probably somewhere in between. Not as warm as the euro and not the day after tomorrow of the GFS. That being said, the GFS now that it has gotten its SE bias out of the way carries more weight than 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Of course it all happens from 7 pm - 7am timeframe like usuall. Its crazy how it almost always happens for our area. Understand, but when you're dealing with marginal temps and wet snow, don't really mind not having to deal with usual daytime issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Gotta be some major commotion over there after seeing the 18Z suite. I, for one, still refuse to get excited about the 6Z/18Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just took a quick look at the soundings at around the nyc metro area. The profile is saturated up to 300MB during the CCB. That is unbelievable. Sounding of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I, for one, still refuse to get excited about the 6Z/18Z runs. Com on Ray just book the plane ticket and get it over with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I, for one, still refuse to get excited about the 6Z/18Z runs. Watch out, we might be browbeaten for thinking lesser of them But fair is fair, if you do it when they show less snowy scenarios, you have to do it now also. Im not going to get excited until that recon goes in; 12z runs tomorrow should be big! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this looks like a 2 part system. The first part is lgt sleet or frz rain or lgt rain....then as the ulll comes up it forms the ccb and rips from dc north You mean northEAST. If it were north I'd get in on some of that, and it just doesn't look like it'll happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sounding of the year Looks like a foot of snow in an extremely short time. Amazing! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Com on Ray just book the plane ticket and get it over with I'm working mids... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You mean northEAST. If it were north I'd get in on some of that, and it just doesn't look like it'll happen here. If TheTrials is right we'll be in on it as welll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Damn... That CCB made that little rain or mix at the start look like child's play. Once again, like previous storms, these huge bombs with an explosion of precip just seem to want to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 EC didn't do bad with the surface temps in 2/25 last year (it was the warmer model and in many places the snow had real trouble sticking during the first part of that storm). It might not be crazy with its 33-34F readings for this one. Just wanted to add that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sounding of the year earthlight, or anyone that is willing to answer, what is so significant about saturation up to 300mb(I'm assuming based on the QPF that it has something to do with crazy dynamics plus a lot of moisture), and what is a normal level of saturation for a heavy snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If TheTrials is right we'll be in on it as welll. Based on 700mb, looks like there is potential for it to fill in to the west more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 EC didn't do bad with the surface temps in 2/25 last year (it was the warmer model and in many places the snow had real trouble sticking during the first part of that storm). It might not be crazy with its 33-34F readings for this one. Just wanted to add that... How did the EC do for Long Island with that one? We went from 1.09 inches of rain to 14 inches of snow lol, changeover happened around 1 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How did the EC do for Long Island with that one? We went from 1.09 inches of rain to 14 inches of snow lol, changeover happened around 1 PM Honestly I don't recall. I just remember I discounted the warm EC surface temps and got burned by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like a foot of snow in an extremely short time. Amazing! WX/PT Impressive jump since 12z, not totally excited yet since it's the 18z run...but the soundings are beautiful. That's a great signal for heavy snow. Deformation being heavily signaled by models at this moment, it's just a matter of where does it set up, and are the thermal profiles supportive? An example would be the earlier runs of the GFS and other models where the QPF looked great and the thermal profiles were great...but the snow growth was absolutely awful...there was very poor snow flake production on almost all of the soundings. This is much improved on the 18z GFS...let's see if it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Impressive jump since 12z, not totally excited yet since it's the 18z run...but the soundings are beautiful. That's a great signal for heavy snow. Deformation being heavily signaled by models at this moment, it's just a matter of where does it set up, and are the thermal profiles supportive? An example would be the earlier runs of the GFS and other models where the QPF looked great and the thermal profiles were great...but the snow growth was absolutely awful...there was very poor snow flake production on almost all of the soundings. This is much improved on the 18z GFS...let's see if it's legit. It would be amazing if it was a storm that got you more excited than 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 earthlight, or anyone that is willing to answer, what is so significant about saturation up to 300mb(I'm assuming based on the QPF that it has something to do with crazy dynamics plus a lot of moisture), and what is a normal level of saturation for a heavy snowstorm? Its siginificant because you are dumping incredible energy and moisture into the entire column which means all your jets working as one. Its the difference between sprinkling on your lighter fluid and dumping a full can into the lit grill with plastic explosive attached to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Impressive jump since 12z, not totally excited yet since it's the 18z run...but the soundings are beautiful. That's a great signal for heavy snow. Deformation being heavily signaled by models at this moment, it's just a matter of where does it set up, and are the thermal profiles supportive? An example would be the earlier runs of the GFS and other models where the QPF looked great and the thermal profiles were great...but the snow growth was absolutely awful...there was very poor snow flake production on almost all of the soundings. This is much improved on the 18z GFS...let's see if it's legit. Biggest problem with that sounding is that 700 mb temps are above -10C. Even if flake production is above that level, there can be a lot of riming lower down to ruin the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.