_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Holy crap that is a bomb. I'd think that precip that falls after 54 would be snow. So just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 .75-1.00 falls in nyc at hr 60......and .50-.75 in phl.......6 hr period from hr 54 at hr 57 its def snow so between hr 54-57 the complete change happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 to be honest I'm really not understanding Upton's stance on this storm. Literally ever single model whether west (GGEM) or east (NAM) has a major CCB forming overhead and meandering around the vicinity for at least 6 hours. Now I think that certain areas east of the city could have trouble accumulating, but I think it is almost a FACT that interior areas in OKX's forecasting areas will get warning criteria snows. Even NYC itself has a moderate chance, which is why I don't get why they're saying its unlikely anyone in the area meets warning criteria. Either way 18z GFS would be a nice solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 CCB from hell on the GFS, all snow n and w of the city and then things get cranking as the low bombs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That is a 1.5" bullseye in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Merry Christmas!! Oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I still don't understand that a deepening low pressure center that originated in the moisture-rich Gulf of Mexico could still have such a sharp cut off to the west?? I've read some meteorologists blogs who agree with me. Anyone concerned the precip shield may be more expansive or more QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this run looks superb for us. This run is now really close to the EURO and other models. GFS verbatim has storm starting out as a little light rain/sleet/mix, and from NYC - TTN line NW only 0.1-0.3 is 'wasted' as mix/rain...then as soon as meaningful precip gets going with a bombing low at perfect location (Benchmark) a big thump with the CCB. 5-10" still looking good for I-95... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 the other good thing about this run (besides one of the most epic CCB's I have seen modeled) is that very little QPF is wasted as liquid around NYC. Eastwards obv a little more and west, maybe using I-95 as the demarcation point, nothing falls with 2m temps above 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Merry Christmas!! Oh wait I only get .8" in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this run looks superb for us. Hell yea-- would verify warning criteria island wide if that happened. BTW did you see that zoomed in QPF map? Youre near the 6 hour 1.5" QPF bullseye I have to settle for 1" in 6 hours lol. Likely, you'd be going from heavy rain right to heavy snow 1-2" per hour (and maybe thundersnow!) It would be funny if it went from a conventional rainy t-storm to a snowy one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Of course it all happens from 7 pm - 7am timeframe like usuall. Its crazy how it almost always happens for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SV's snowmaps show 8-12" for Philly up to Allentown, 12-18" for NYC LI and northern NJ 18-24" in SW CT 4-8" snows from Hagerstown, up to Harrisburg to Scranton , on the east side Delaware river to Trenton and then due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 .75-1.00 falls in nyc at hr 60......and .50-.75 in phl.......6 hr period from hr 54 at hr 57 its def snow so between hr 54-57 the complete change happens think about it... if anything like this materializes, it will give us back to back months of 20"+ of snow for our area. an incredible first half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 .75-1.00 falls in nyc at hr 60......and .50-.75 in phl.......6 hr period from hr 54 at hr 57 its def snow so between hr 54-57 the complete change happens actually from about staten island east its 1.00+ if you looked at the zoomed version. Not a big deal tho but just pointing that out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 on ewall hr 60 has over 1 in QPF for at least NYC north and east and this is in 6 hours...I also see some yellow in there which would indicate 1.25+ which is just unreal for 6hr time frame. Looks like it's sniffing out another TDB! (tasty deformation band ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just took a quick look at the soundings at around the nyc metro area. The profile is saturated up to 300MB during the CCB. That is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wait, NYC high temp is supposed to be close to 40f tomorrow? I can't find support for that anywhere...at least from a realistic weather standpoint given ground temps, snow cover and very cold offshore water, unless they are expecting strong low level WAA from the Gulf Stream? Nor do I see any sense whatsoever in posting a storm total map for tenths of inches from that clipper. I feel like that office has sort of fallen apart since the December debacle, especially strange considering they forecast for the second largest population in our nation. OK, that is enough I'll stop criticizing them now. That's also great that there will be new data for tomorrow's 12z models and SUBSEQUENT ones, what subsequent ones? It's basically a nowcast by tomorrow evening for much of the mid-Atlantic. You don't see support for mid/upper 30s throughout the metro? Everything I check supports that... MET, MAV, all the operationals - I think I even saw a 40 for JFK on one of the statisticals. Low 20s today and we should warm 8C by tomorrow at 850mb. A stale snowpack isn't going to keep us that cool. And the precip forecast graphics are generated for every event I believe. I don't see the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 CCB from hell...just amazing. The initial WAA looks to start places S/E of NYC as rain, before everything crashes. Compared to 12z, the vort is alot stronger and more impressive....have to hope the other models follow suit tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This thing is looking more and more like our Christmas 02 event. Sloppy rain and sleet and mix for hours the a pounding of 6-12" with blizzrd conditions in a matter of 5-7 houes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The GFS temps are probably a little warm based on the height falls it is showing just prior to 54hr...the GFS does in fact show a bomb, if it's correct I would expect about .1 liquid in the City and the rest frozen, probably a flash transition to very heavy snow, GFS also has some nice wind. I will not however criticize Upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 to be honest I'm really not understanding Upton's stance on this storm. Literally ever single model whether west (GGEM) or east (NAM) has a major CCB forming overhead and meandering around the vicinity for at least 6 hours. Now I think that certain areas east of the city could have trouble accumulating, but I think it is almost a FACT that interior areas in OKX's forecasting areas will get warning criteria snows. Even NYC itself has a moderate chance, which is why I don't get why they're saying its unlikely anyone in the area meets warning criteria. Either way 18z GFS would be a nice solution Gotta be some major commotion over there after seeing the 18Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can someone figure out what hour (Between 54 and 60) that NYC goes to all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can someone figure out what hour (Between 54 and 60) that NYC goes to all snow? Its actually sleeting at 54 hours with a small warm wedge in the 800's so I would guess 57 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this looks like a 2 part system. The first part is lgt sleet or frz rain or lgt rain....then as the ulll comes up it forms the ccb and rips from dc north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/7646-the-nycphl-banter-thread/page__view__findpost__p__349269 I posted this in the banter today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 RGEM,GGEM to an extent, Nam and now the GFS are splitting the storm into 2 pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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