A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This two piece rain/snow thing is really reminding me of the 12/5/03 storm. People had a hard time with that storm too. The funny thing is, people forget what a tenuous situation that storm was because it ended up being a blizzard for us. The rain/snow line ended up being 5 miles south of us the entire first day of the storm and that's when we got our highest accumulations. I got 8 inches on the first day and 6 inches on the second day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NOAA Winter Recon flying over the Gulf tonight. HAVE CONTINUED BASICALLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THINGS BECOMECLEAR. NOTE THAT NOAA WINTER RECONNAISSANCE IS BEING FLOWN FOR THISSYSTEM IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS WILL GETINCLUDED INTO TOMORROW`S 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THUSEXPECT THINGS TO BECOME CLEARER TOMORROW. NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUEDTHIS AFTERNOON AS WERE STILL OVER 48 HOURS FROM POSSIBLE WARNINGCRITERIA. http://forecast.weat...1&glossary=1 I was going to say that tonight's 0z runs should give us a better idea, but I guess we wont really know much more until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z GFS looking similar to 12z thus far. No major changes to note through 24. Maybe we're finally starting to settle in on a course here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Doubt this has any impact on the storm but I have a strong feeling forecasted lows tonight are going to bust...already down to 14.3 here and winds seem light and variable with clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wait, NYC high temp is supposed to be close to 40f tomorrow? I can't find support for that anywhere...at least from a realistic weather standpoint given ground temps, snow cover and very cold offshore water, unless they are expecting strong low level WAA from the Gulf Stream? Nor do I see any sense whatsoever in posting a storm total map for tenths of inches from that clipper. I feel like that office has sort of fallen apart since the December debacle, especially strange considering they forecast for the second largest population in our nation. OK, that is enough I'll stop criticizing them now. Meh, SST vary from like 35-40 so near 40 is definitely reasonable. Actually we kind of want that right now because the faster this high leaves the better. I have a southerly wind already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NOAA Winter Recon flying over the Gulf tonight. HAVE CONTINUED BASICALLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THINGS BECOMECLEAR. NOTE THAT NOAA WINTER RECONNAISSANCE IS BEING FLOWN FOR THISSYSTEM IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS WILL GETINCLUDED INTO TOMORROW`S 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THUSEXPECT THINGS TO BECOME CLEARER TOMORROW. NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUEDTHIS AFTERNOON AS WERE STILL OVER 48 HOURS FROM POSSIBLE WARNINGCRITERIA. http://forecast.weat...1&glossary=1 Yup. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 231730 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST SUN 23 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-054 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 -- A. A66/ 28.2N 91.5W (DROP 10)/ 25/1200Z B. AFXXX 12WSA TRACK66 C. 25/0645Z D. 10 DROPS AS SHOWN ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 25/1400Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. A64/ 30.3N 75.0W (DROP 10)/ 26/0000Z B. A64/ 30.3N 75.0W (DROP 10)/ 26/1200Z II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA49-- A. P73/ 43.9N 172.3E (DROP 11)/ 25/1200Z B. NOAA9 10WSW TRACK73 C. 25/0800Z D. 20 DROPS AS SHOWN ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 25/1800Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. WVW E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 25/1800Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. WVW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18Z RGEM Hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z GFS looking similar to 12z thus far. No major changes to note through 24. Maybe we're finally starting to settle in on a course here. It'd be funny if we had a radical change after that sampling lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18Z RGEM Hour 54 RGEM goes out pats 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php Thanks very much. I lose that direct link each winter. I'll be asking for it again next year. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18Z RGEM Dominant Precip types over the past 3 hours at hour 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 RGEM goes out pats 48? 06Z/18Z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Right here is where we need it to bomb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Doubt this has any impact on the storm but I have a strong feeling forecasted lows tonight are going to bust...already down to 14.3 here and winds seem light and variable with clear skies. Temps. will rise overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It'd be funny if we had a radical change after that sampling lol. This is one of those storms where I think despite being on the south shore you'll be in a better position than me as the temp profile looks to orient itself more west-east than north-south. Hope Im wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 51 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can someone explain to me why at H5 the GFS has it closed off at 45, it opens again at 48 and then closes at 51, can someone tell me why this opening happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Temps. will rise overnight. That doesn't change the bust if it occurs..it's also better the colder we can get before the winds turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hopefully this closes off faster..... theyre talking 18-24 for Boston, so up there west-east doesnt matter as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 54 on the 18z gfs....the rain/snow seems to run from phl-nyc or just nw... hr 57 dc-nyc is getting crushed by heavy wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 wow DC gets pummeled at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Geez! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 60 is a condo crushing heavy wet snowstorm from phl-nyc.....big hit here on the gfs 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Look out SE PA at 57. Dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If 54 is any indication, **** is about to get real for PHL-NYC at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 on ewall hr 60 has over 1 in QPF for at least NYC north and east and this is in 6 hours...I also see some yellow in there which would indicate 1.25+ which is just unreal for 6hr time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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