B Dawk 20 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z EURO Snow Equivalent, 1" liquid snow line Easton, MD starting point East side Easton, MD to Smyrna, DE to Cherry Hill, NJ to Trenton, to Staten Island, Crossing Manhattan, to Norwalk, CT does not go through LI West Side Easton, MD north to Lancaster PA, To Reading, Allentown, to East Stroudsburg, to Port Jarvis, NY to Kingston, NY to near Pittsfield, MA Just in case anyone (like me, lol) has trouble visualizing based on place names alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just in case anyone (like me, lol) has trouble visualizing based on place names alone that doesn't really correlate with some of the Euro mos numbers people have posted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 18z NAM is still splitting the energy and holding part of it back accross the SE states which eventually makes it further north and brushes the coast. Big improvements though from 12z. Take a look at the 12z NAM at hr 66. The low pressure is very elongated. Now jump ahead to hr 60 on the 18z NAM...much more of a consolidated low. The precip associated with the NAM is incredible over the SE, and if it found a way to turn the corner better we would all be looking at very high QPF. Being as were still slightly out of the NAM's good range I'm not putting too much stock in its solution atm but I like the way its currently trending. This still has the potential in my eyes to be an I-95 HECS. Sorry for such the long post but I'm five posted so I have to get all the bang for the buck I can lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just in case anyone (like me, lol) has trouble visualizing based on place names alone What's the 1" snow line again? 1 inch liquid falls as snow in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SECS perhaps, anything more than that highly doubtful..... right now, I'd say MECS for eastern PA and western NJ and SECS for eastern NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Latest Mount Holly snow map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton Not Impressed .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --WARM ADVECTION LIGHT PCPN SHOULD BE EXITING TUESDAY AM TO THE NORTHEAST. POPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER EAST CENTRAL CT. TEMPS ON TUESDAY ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL ZONES AND COULD TOUCH 40 IN NYC. A BLEND OF MOS WAS USED. WEDNESDAY`S STORM. LATEST SREF...GFS...GEFS AND ECMWF USED FOR THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS TAKE LOW THAT IS FORMING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND TRACK IT TO NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO OVER THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF TIMING...BUT APPEARS TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK. CONCERNS ABOUT MODEL GUIDANCE ARE HIGH DUE TO EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE PCPN BEING GENERATED THROUGH MODEL PARAMETRIZATION. THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE AND THE DYNAMIC BUILDING OF THE DOWN STREAM RIDGE ARE AFFECTED. THUS...WHILE MODEL TRACK IS CLUSTERED NICELY...HUMAN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE ACTUAL TRACK. THE NAM IS AN INTERESTING EXAMPLE...AND WHILE BEING DISCARDED FOR FORECAST INTEGRATION...IT IS RIGHT OF THE ENSEMBLED TRACK AND PRODUCES ZERO QPF. HAVE CONTINUED BASICALLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEAR. NOTE THAT NOAA WINTER RECONNAISSANCE IS BEING FLOWN FOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS WILL GET INCLUDED INTO TOMORROW`S 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THUS EXPECT THINGS TO BECOME CLEARER TOMORROW. NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AS WERE STILL OVER 48 HOURS FROM POSSIBLE WARNING CRITERIA. PTYPE IS A MAJOR ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A WARM NOSE ALOFT. EVEN INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MIXED PCPN. A WINTRY MIX APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINATE TYPE WITH MORE RAIN TO THE EAST. OF COURSE WITH TRACK AND QPF AMOUNT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...ANY SNOW AMOUNT FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR THAT LIKELIHOOD OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS LOW...EVEN INLAND. WINDS. LOW END WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (G 40 KT) APPEARS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN SESSION (LONG ISLAND AND SE CT). LASTLY FLOODING...THERE IS CURRENTLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT WATER IT THE SNOW COVER. WITH POTENTIAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT ADDED ON TO THIS FOR EASTERN SESSIONS (LONG ISLAND AND SE CT)...PONDING/URBAN/BASEMENT FLOODING ARE A CONCERN. IN ADDITION...THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW ON FLAT ROOF STRUCTURES IS SIGNIFICANT. TIMING FOR PCPN ONSET IS MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION INCLUDING NYC AND LONG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RUSH HOURS SHOULD BE DRY. ENDING IS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER LIGHT SN ON THURSDAY AM.-- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The WRF-NMM and the WRF-ARW at 48hours also want to keep this 2 pieces. That usually ends up as a screw job for someone in the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Latest Mount Holly snow map... That just shows how much spread there is with the models. Mt Holly sees warning type snows for west Jersey and Northeast Pa and Upton says low chance for warning type snows even west for their CWA. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That just shows how much spread there is with the models. Mt Holly sees warning type snows for west Jersey and Northeast Pa and Upton says low chance for warning type snows even west for their CWA. D I would be EXTREMELY surprised if warning criteria snows do not occur somwhere in Uptons CWA (In fact I would think 50-75% of their CWA will verify) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton Not Impressed IT DOES APPEAR THAT LIKELIHOOD OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOW IS LOW...EVEN INLAND. On all the models except the Nam, inland areas do the best. Upton is always conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The WRF-NMM and the WRF-ARW at 48hours also want to keep this 2 pieces. That usually ends up as a screw job for someone in the interior as does the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The WRF-NMM and the WRF-ARW at 48hours also want to keep this 2 pieces. That usually ends up as a screw job for someone in the interior Our main in-house Tom Clark says we will be on northern fringe of precip shield. Which means a whole lotta nuttin for folks north of 78 and especially 80... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What's the 1" snow line again? 1 inch liquid falls as snow in that area? Essentially Accu Pro puts out a snowfall map for the EURO its supposed to be a complete snowfall scale at 10:1 ratios, but its not (they had a similar issue with their GFS and NAM snowfall maps a couple years ago where it was only plotting the liquid equivalent) Accu pro has only had qpf for the EURO since summer I'm assuming someone forgot to put in an algorithm for the ratios. But essentially yes this would be the line where 1" liquid of snow would be plotted. The scale only goes .1 and then by the inch from there. So using standard 10:1 ratios according to the plot 10" would fall within this band. (if you believe indeed that ratios would be 10:1). I wasn't even aware of this feature til I was playing with the drop down menus last week, I have no idea how accurate this is or what goes into figuring it out with their data, I can say that the GFS and NAM snowfall plots for Accu pro are usually fairly conservative in comparison to the clown maps from Wxcaster, but this could be a case of comparing apples to oranges since I do not know anything about this feature or have used it so far this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would be EXTREMELY surprised if warning criteria snows do not occur somwhere in Uptons CWA (In fact I would think 50-75% of their CWA will verify) I agree completely with you. I happen to think Mt. Holly's map is pretty good if you extrapolate into the Upton CWA. 15z srefs still have pretty good snow probabilties especially for the western part of the Upton CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Our main in-house Tom Clark says we will be on northern fringe of precip shield. Which means a whole lotta nuttin for folks north of 78 and especially 80... If Tom is correct, that would make a pretty small band of heavy snow accums where the event stays all or mostly snow. Correct? I like Tom Clark but most of the Mets on NEP are pretty conservative. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Latest Mount Holly snow map... Is there a similar map put out by Upton? If so, does anyone have the url to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Our main in-house Tom Clark says we will be on northern fringe of precip shield. Which means a whole lotta nuttin for folks north of 78 and especially 80... Tom Clark is the most conservative TV met I've ever seen. That doesn't mean he's not good. The entire station is ubber conservative with snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tom Clark is the most conservative TV met I've ever seen. That doesn't mean he's not good. The entire station is ubber conservative with snowfall. I completely agree. NEP has missed many forecast totals for around my area in the Southern Poconos. Most of the time they're low. D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I completely agree. NEP has missed many forecast totals for around my area in the Southern Poconos. Most of the time they're low. D The probably do a lot better for Scranton. Having family in the area, I know the snowfall climatology varies a great deal. Scranton has a seasonal snowfall of 15" and my sister said there is about 8 inches of snowcover right now at her house in the mountains west of Jim Thorpe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is there a similar map put out by Upton? If so, does anyone have the url to it? Uptons map right now is just for the small clipper coming through ending by tomorrow 1pm...no amounts above .4 inches I believe (and nothing at all below Westchester FWIW) The map for this storm isn't issued yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I agree completely with you. I happen to think Mt. Holly's map is pretty good if you extrapolate into the Upton CWA. 15z srefs still have pretty good snow probabilties especially for the western part of the Upton CWA. As a matter of fact, this is exactly what I did, and seeing that Mt Holly had 3 inches or so for Monmouth County, makes me think the met figures of 3-5 inches for our area seems fairly sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Uptons map right now is just for the small clipper coming through ending by tomorrow 1pm...no amounts above .4 inches I believe (and nothing at all below Westchester FWIW) The map for this storm isn't issued yet. where do you find the link to it when it does come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This two piece rain/snow thing is really reminding me of the 12/5/03 storm. People had a hard time with that storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The GFS is running, looking for that perfect balance of cold vs.QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 where do you find the link to it when it does come out? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 where do you find the link to it when it does come out? http://tinyurl.com/4aouu77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wait, NYC high temp is supposed to be close to 40f tomorrow? I can't find support for that anywhere...at least from a realistic weather standpoint given ground temps, snow cover and very cold offshore water, unless they are expecting strong low level WAA from the Gulf Stream? Nor do I see any sense whatsoever in posting a storm total map for tenths of inches from that clipper. I feel like that office has sort of fallen apart since the December debacle, especially strange considering they forecast for the second largest population in our nation. OK, that is enough I'll stop criticizing them now. That's also great that there will be new data for tomorrow's 12z models and SUBSEQUENT ones, what subsequent ones? It's basically a nowcast by tomorrow evening for much of the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton not all that impressed with snow or frozen types at this point AFD - http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NOAA Winter Recon flying over the Gulf tonight. HAVE CONTINUED BASICALLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL THINGS BECOMECLEAR. NOTE THAT NOAA WINTER RECONNAISSANCE IS BEING FLOWN FOR THISSYSTEM IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS WILL GETINCLUDED INTO TOMORROW`S 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THUSEXPECT THINGS TO BECOME CLEARER TOMORROW. NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUEDTHIS AFTERNOON AS WERE STILL OVER 48 HOURS FROM POSSIBLE WARNINGCRITERIA. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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