tson96 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton seems to be dragging there feet a bit here, no updates to local forecasts or storm totals for about 12 hrs now.. Not PHL http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton seems to be dragging their feet a bit here, no updates to local forecasts or storm totals for about 12 hrs now.. They put out an HWO at about 0930 this morning in case you didn't see it. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY908 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011NYZ072>075-176-178-251100-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-908 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAYNIGHT...TO EAST OF CAPE COD THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ACHANCE OF SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THENPRIMARILY RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...THAT WILL CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOWWILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ASIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL.THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT STORM TRACK ANDSTRENGTH...AND ON HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL WORK INTO THE SYSTEM.STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 CCBs tend to have better than 10:1 ratios but nobody seems to think this will be possible along the coast...will this be an exception? CCB's do well with ratios when temps are below freezing. In this case its a crapshoot.. there isn't a lot of cold air to pull from and its a downslope NW flow that brings it in while precip is falling. My bet is that most places will see temps around freezing, so ratios won't be as good as a normal CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is Mt. Holly being serious? I'll take my 10.4 inches. I've been reading a huge mix with around 3-6 inches of snow.. can't say I was expecting that from Mt. Holly. Does anyone know where around the mix line will be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton seems to be dragging their feet a bit here, no updates to local forecasts or storm totals for about 12 hrs now.. Upton usually updates around 3 am and 3 pm...should be updating soon. I'd suspect they put out a snowmap for the storm like Mt Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is Mt. Holly being serious? I'll take my 10.4 inches. I've been reading a huge mix with around 3-6 inches of snow.. can't say I was expecting that from Mt. Holly. Does anyone know where around the mix line will be? I'm not quite sure. I've commented about that in the Banter thread - they have our area from 1PM - 2PM with Rain; before and after that all snow. Doesn't really make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton usually updates around 3 am and 3 pm...should be updating soon. I'd suspect they put out a snowmap for the storm like Mt Holly Well they did update it, but it looks nothing like Mt Holly's as they have it ending at 1pm tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM is not budging: h51 total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Note line on bottom which reads: Ending 1PM Tuesday Well they did update it, but it looks nothing like Mt Holly's as they have it ending at 1pm tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well they did update it, but it looks nothing like Mt Holly's as they have it ending at 1pm tomorrow.. ending at 1 PM tuesday Thats why..its for the weak clipper that will pass by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Reading comprehension FAIL. EDIT: Nice quick fix, chief. Well they did update it, but it looks nothing like Mt Holly's as they have it ending at 1pm tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton usually updates around 3 am and 3 pm...should be updating soon. I'd suspect they put out a snowmap for the storm like Mt Holly .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...LATEST OVERNIGHT NWP GUIDANCE...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LOT OFUNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEXT COASTAL CYCLONE PROGGED TO IMPACT THEAREA WED INTO THU. 09Z SREF SHOWING LOW CHANCES OF WARNING LEVELSNOWS OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE 12Z NAM GIVING ONLY A GLANCINGSHOT OF PCPN. WILL BE COORDINATING WITH NCEP HPC AND NEIGHBORINGNWS OFFICES THIS AFTN. MORE TO COME AT 4 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I know it's ending at 1PM Tuesday as per my comment above the image and hence the reason I said it looks nothing like Mt Hollys since its not the same storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM is not budging: h51 total precip. The storm isn't supposed to start here until after then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Couple quick pics from 12/25/02 storm Remember forecast called for rain to change to snow in eve....it changed much earlier..mid aft I think. A real paste job..love how it stuck on side of trees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice CCB over the area on the 18z Nam at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z EURO Snow Equivalent, 1" liquid snow line Easton, MD starting point East side Easton, MD to Smyrna, DE to Cherry Hill, NJ to Trenton, to Staten Island, Crossing Manhattan, to Norwalk, CT does not go through LI West Side Easton, MD north to Lancaster PA, To Reading, Allentown, to East Stroudsburg, to Port Jarvis, NY to Kingston, NY to near Pittsfield, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at 54hrs on the 18Z NAM it appears as if the northern stream is trying to phase in...am i seeing things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The storm isn't supposed to start here until after then. Looks similar, tough tell if it is still spitting out two Lows from this map though and is definitely faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM is not budging: h51 total precip. It's a little faster, toward the consensus, which is a good sign. Should also help expand the western precip shield a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like 3-5" of snow for PHL per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For those of us in the no man's land well west of PHL, AFD from CTP: CONSENSUS BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVOR SNOW FOR EVEN MY FARTHEST SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...WITH SFC LOW STORM MOTION FROM 240 CARRYING THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE DELAWARE COAST BETWEEN 00Z/24 AND 06Z/24. LATEST NCEP WWD SNOWFALL IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION... AND RANGES FROM 2-4" OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL NORTH OF I-80) TO 8-10" OVER EASTERN LANCASTER COUNTY OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST. OBVIOUSLY...SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY AND ORIENTATION OF KEY BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES/LLJ WILL BE PARAMOUNT TO EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMS. FOR NOW...MEAN GEFS STORM TOTAL PRECIP AND ECMWF QPF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND STRONGLY SUPPORT A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WRAPPING UP BEFORE 12Z THU. WITH THIS IN MIND...DID NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO GOING GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS OVERALL SCENARIO IS DEPICTED WELL IN CURRENT FORECASTS AND EXACT DETAILS WON`T BE KNOWN FOR STILL SOME TIME. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW APPEAR LIKELY FROM PLACES LIKE STATE COLLEGE AND ALTOONA TO LANCASTER AND YORK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR 6" OR MORE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A BLOOMSBURG TO LEWISTOWN TO BEDFORD LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Your amount should suffice. Thanks Ray, the magic number up here seems to be 1k. many times I am rain and up at the kids school its snowing. BTW if the Nam is right it may be just partly cloudy here. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM still slowly coming around. Very cold this run, if anyone noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For those of us in the no man's land well west of PHL, AFD from CTP:... That was issued at 4 AM this morning. Look for something updated in the next hour as things have evolved since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z EURO Snow Equivalent, 1" liquid snow line Easton, MD starting point East side Easton, MD to Smyrna, DE to Cherry Hill, NJ to Trenton, to Staten Island, Crossing Manhattan, to Norwalk, CT does not go through LI West Side Easton, MD north to Lancaster PA, To Reading, Allentown, to East Stroudsburg, to Port Jarvis, NY to Kingston, NY to near Pittsfield, MA Lol...so per this I am looking at 10"+ here in SE NY (55 miles N of NYC @ ~700 ft) according to the 12z Euro and absolute zilch per the 12z nam (although 18z nam now shows maybe 3-5 inches) Pretty much the story of this winter until about 24 hours or closer to the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The storm isn't supposed to start here until after then. Agreed. That was a bit premature as the NAM did nudge NW a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at 54hrs on the 18Z NAM it appears as if the northern stream is trying to phase in...am i seeing things? I am in 100% discard mode for the NAM - it is starting to pay catch up on precip and I expect it'll keep doing that for its next few runs. Glad I don't forecast for a living - but this is starting to come into better agreement ... rain to snow for NYC, with perhaps a period of sleet in between depending on how cleanly the cold air comes in on the backside. Won't speculate on accums for the NYC area yet but backlash snows are very high on bust potential. Not nearly as uniform as the WAA snows you get on the "positive x-axis" side of the storm. Will have a first forecast map out tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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