ace0927 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow, I didnt realize some places got close to a foot with that. I agree with you that the models tend to "smooth" qpf fields (we saw this with Dec 26, 2010 also) and with these rapidly intensifying systems we see much more banding with "haves" and "have nots." Would the higher res models do much better with these? Perhaps looking at the MM5 once we're within 24 hrs of the event would give us a better idea as to where these might set up. one place in queens that stands out is Floral Park, i believe they had 11" and west Hempstead had about 13"....correct me if im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 but that was front end snow and then rain http://www.njfreeway.../14-Dec-03.html Yes I got about 6 inches of snow before it changed to rain with a lull in between the precipitation switch I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 one place in queens that stands out is Floral Park, i believe they had 11" and west Hempstead had about 13"....correct me if im wrong. Indeed my being just north of there at the time I received about 9 inches. I believe someone in Bayside reported 10 as well. It was an epic wraparound which made me surprised when I heard the park only had 5 inches after seeing what happened in my neighborhood only 12 miles east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If anyone is curious, since its been mentioned... from 12/25/02: EWR: 3.6" Central Park: 5.0" JFK: 5.1" LGA: 6.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Max amount in the 12/25/2002 storm on LI was 11.5" in West Hempstead. I had 10.5" in Roslyn, most of which fell in 5-6 hours. http://www.erh.noaa....=pns/122502.txt one place in queens that stands out is Floral Park, i believe they had 11" and west Hempstead had about 13"....correct me if im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Indeed my being just north of there at the time I received about 9 inches. I believe someone in Bayside reported 10 as well. It was an epic wraparound which made me surprised when I heard the park only had 5 inches after seeing what happened in my neighborhood only 12 miles east of there. There was major variation in Queens that night, there seemed to be a bit of a hole as I drove through places like Jamaica Estates where there was less but then the amounts increased again in eastern Queens....there was a period where around 7 inches fell in about 2 1/2-3 hours over Nassau....I saw plenty of lightning but never heard any thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How about this classic rain to snow forecast disaster in 2001. I remember being forecasted for mostly rain in PHL. That morning the forecast changes on NWs for 2-4 inches, ended with close to 6, roads were a disaster people in and around the city got stuck at school and stuff....We had a whiteout during the storm as well. I might be off with how the forecasts went since I was only like 15 Feb 5th 2001: http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2001/05-Feb-01.html Not saying the analog is anything close at all, but just a rain to snowstorm I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You can find the answers in Ray's Winter Storm Archive... with so many new faces on the board today, it might be helpful to post this link....a WEALTH of information specific to the NYC/PHL Metro area analogs in the not-too-distant past. Mods, I hope it is ok to post this here... and Ray, you have no idea how much I love your site. So much work and time and information, all for the love of the game. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/ Scroll through the storms... you can find almost all of the answers to "what happened in my backyard" without having any technical knowledge. Might help, specifically because of the plethora of mix storms that Ray has documented. Haha West Milford is the snow capital of NJ! Not so far west that it gets screwed in bombing coastals to the east and just far enough west and enough elevation to totally kill the borderline scenarios! I wonder how they did in Dec 92 and Mar 93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 good luck indeed to mets and pro's. can't wait to see glenn's call. accu's latest map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You can find the answers in Ray's Winter Storm Archive... with so many new faces on the board today, it might be helpful to post this link....a WEALTH of information specific to the NYC/Metro area analogs in the not-too-distant past. Mods, I hope it is ok to post this here... and Ray, you have no idea how much I love your site. So much work and time and information, all for the love of the game. http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/ Scroll through the storms... you can find almost all of the answers to "what happened in my backyard" without having any technical knowledge. Might help, specifically because of the plethora of mix storms that Ray has documented. yea same, thanks a lot ray for that website, i use it everytime someone mentions an analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There was major variation in Queens that night, there seemed to be a bit of a hole as I drove through places like Jamaica Estates where there was less but then the amounts increased again in eastern Queens....there was a period where around 7 inches fell in about 2 1/2-3 hours over Nassau....I saw plenty of lightning but never heard any thunder. That storm was the first time I can reliably say I experienced thundersnow. I was on the GCP about where it meets the Whitestone Expwy and I saw a flash and then heard the low rumbling noise of the thunder. It was awesome. Fantastic surprise that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How about this classic rain to snow forecast disaster in 2001. I remember being forecasted for mostly rain in PHL. That morning the forecast changes on NWs for 2-4 inches, ended with close to 6, roads were a disaster people in and around the city got stuck at school and stuff....We had a whiteout during the storm as well. I might be off with how the forecasts went since I was only like 15 Feb 5th 2001: http://www.njfreeway.../05-Feb-01.html Not saying the analog is anything close at all, but just a rain to snowstorm I recall. I was actually thinking of that storm last night. The CCB totally wrecked rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ru89 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If anyone is curious, since its been mentioned... from 12/25/02: EWR: 3.6" Central Park: 5.0" JFK: 5.1" LGA: 6.3" 1800 ft. elevation 15 miles east of Scranton I received just under 30 inches in that storm. That Christmas storm is certainly not an analog for places in Northeastern PA for the upcoming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 but that was front end snow and then rain http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2004/14-Dec-03.html I believe the Jets were home that week and played in the snow. We weren't expecting much and it stayed snow longer than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 1800 ft. elevation 15 miles east of Scranton I received just under 30 inches in that storm. That Christmas storm is certainly not an analog for places in Northeastern PA for the upcoming event. Same here.. Most places received 15-20" here.. Highly doubt that happens with this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I believe the Jets were home that week and played in the snow. We weren't expecting much and it stayed snow longer than expected. They were playing the Steelers and beat them that day in all irony. I recall watching it as I had already changed to rain down here. Not a good analog to this storm by the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 1800 ft. elevation 15 miles east of Scranton I received just under 30 inches in that storm. That Christmas storm is certainly not an analog for places in Northeastern PA for the upcoming event. I tend to agree, places with elevation have a good shot at getting a lot... this may well be a storm where its elevation FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There was major variation in Queens that night, there seemed to be a bit of a hole as I drove through places like Jamaica Estates where there was less but then the amounts increased again in eastern Queens....there was a period where around 7 inches fell in about 2 1/2-3 hours over Nassau....I saw plenty of lightning but never heard any thunder. SG, how much did LGA and JFK get? Im guessing the southern part of Nassau weighed in with 6-8, while the northern part got 9-12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 how are you supposed to interpret the spread for the sref? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ru89 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Same here.. Most places received 15-20" here.. Highly doubt that happens with this storm.. Not good at looking back at the charts prior to the Christmas 2002 storm, but it would be interesting to see if the setup was similar enough that something like that could happen in a worst case scenario in the Poconos and Southern NY State. I was down in Northeast Philly for Christmas that year and we got backended with about 4 inches of snow after driving rain. Looking at the radar I could see the heavy bands just pummeling northeastern pa. I Drove up to my house in the Poconos the day after Christmas and we had nearly 30 inches. The valley's near Scranton had about 15 or so so elevation made a big difference. The ride up 476 from Philly as you got closer to the Poconos was quite amazing. It would be fun if we could pull off a surprise and have heavier qpf in Northeast Pa and Southern NY State. Time will tell. That's what makes following these storms so much fun. WNEP was calling for I believe 3-6 in the higher elevations 12 hours before the storm. Lets hope we are in for another surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Max amount in the 12/25/2002 storm on LI was 11.5" in West Hempstead. I had 10.5" in Roslyn, most of which fell in 5-6 hours. http://www.erh.noaa....=pns/122502.txt Up to the north of NYC ...ORANGE... MONROE 19.0 800 AM 12/26 TUXEDO PARK 16.0 630 AM 12/26 BULLVILLE 14.3 1220 PM 12/26 3 FOOT DRIFTS PORT JERVIS 14.2 700 AM 12/26 CORNWALL-ON-THE-HUDSON 14.0 815 AM 12/26 HIGHLAND MILLS 14.0 1030 PM 12/25 BLOOMING GROVE 13.5 815 PM 12/25 CHESTER 13.0 800 PM 12/25 CAMPBELL HALL 11.0 710 PM 12/25 MIDDLETOWN 10.0 700 PM 12/25 WARWICK 10.0 900 PM 12/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If anyone is curious, since its been mentioned... from 12/25/02: EWR: 3.6" Central Park: 5.0" JFK: 5.1" LGA: 6.3" Max amount in the 12/25/2002 storm on LI was 11.5" in West Hempstead. I had 10.5" in Roslyn, most of which fell in 5-6 hours. http://www.erh.noaa....=pns/122502.txt Wow, the uniform 3-6 inches around the city doesnt quite tell the tale of how much variation there really was! And really close to the city too-- West Hempstead isnt more than maybe 5 miles from here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice CCB on the ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How much elevation would you be talking about? At this point I am happy it doesnt look like 50 and rain. Your amount should suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 CCBs tend to have better than 10:1 ratios but nobody seems to think this will be possible along the coast...will this be an exception? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 congats on getting support. lol. i can only speak for middlesex county, but mt. holly has done really well with those maps this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 CCBs tend to have better than 10:1 ratios but nobody seems to think this will be possible along the coast...will this be an exception? Good post, significant accums along the coast from the CCB seems like fair game because of the offshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Upton seems to be dragging their feet a bit here, no updates to local forecasts or storm totals for about 12 hrs now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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