tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tombo we love you. Do you love us enough for FWN as well? i included fwn already in the origninal qpf i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro gives the area light snow this weekend from the clipper system. does the euro still show the big bomber next week that DT has been gushing about?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 no the lehigh valley looks fine, they may mix briefly, but not much northern part of lehigh valley is .75-1.25 since i dont know where lol Thanks Tombo, I am near Danielsville. Just south of Blue Mountain Ski area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i included fwn already in the origninal qpf i believe Crap, you did. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Any chance at getting snow/rain amount for K12N? KMMU: 0.81 Snow , 0.50 Rain/Mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd be interested in the service if he knows what it is. I have a paid service at the office, but it doesn't include the MOS output for the Euro. Accuweather Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Accuweather Pro Accu pro EURO comes out later, we use Stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 12Z runs would indicate this has 12/03 type potential as far as what happened on the first day of the event...everyone thought it would be a rain-snow transition...looking at this event I see no reason why it may not surprise people again by being mostly snow now....I think the models may be a bit generous with the mid-level warming and its close anyway....the surface doesn't look to be an issue, the GFS MOS shows 37/29 over JFK at 18Z but thats with a 030 wind. goose- 18Z weds? Prior to the onset of precip (or just as precip is arriving)? looks like there is a warm nose, nothing gets above 1.5, from 900-750mb...this is at 60 hrs according to GFS soundings (JFK) LGA is slightly colder...nothing above .8C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro is very cold again late this weekend/early next week. Raw temps in the single digits for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 does the euro still show the big bomber next week that DT has been gushing about?? It has a great pattern at 168 hrs. Beautiful +pna. It definitely has a lot of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 12Z runs would indicate this has 12/03 type potential as far as what happened on the first day of the event...everyone thought it would be a rain-snow transition...looking at this event I see no reason why it may not surprise people again by being mostly snow now....I think the models may be a bit generous with the mid-level warming and its close anyway....the surface doesn't look to be an issue, the GFS MOS shows 37/29 over JFK at 18Z but thats with a 030 wind. Interesting take SG. If our 850s do not go over 0 which they didnt in the 2003 event, perhaps you have a point there. I remember being very confused with that event. Looked like rain a little further out, early December, then I woke up to a temp of 36º that morning. I didn't pay attention to the dew point though and I figured we were probably cooked. What a great day that turned out to be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 12Z runs would indicate this has 12/03 type potential as far as what happened on the first day of the event...everyone thought it would be a rain-snow transition...looking at this event I see no reason why it may not surprise people again by being mostly snow now....I think the models may be a bit generous with the mid-level warming and its close anyway....the surface doesn't look to be an issue, the GFS MOS shows 37/29 over JFK at 18Z but thats with a 030 wind. Just curious... but when do you recall the last time that the models were overdoing midlevel warming? That's the opposite of their usual bias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interesting take SG. If our 850s do not go over 0 which they didnt in the 2003 event, perhaps you have a point there. I remember being very confused with that event. Looked like rain a little further out, early December, then I woke up to a temp of 36º that morning. I didn't pay attention to the dew point though and I figured we were probably cooked. What a great day that turned out to be though. Even if a warm nose sticks through 60-62 hours I have a feeling there could be a period of sleet...again though as someone else said that is quite uncharacteristic of how these storms usually evolve, its usually a quick rain to snow transition...the dew points advected down from the CT Valley where it was cold and clear the night before, the same sort of thing could happen with this event if you check the data in CT and MA for temps/dps during the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Interesting take SG. If our 850s do not go over 0 which they didnt in the 2003 event, perhaps you have a point there. I remember being very confused with that event. Looked like rain a little further out, early December, then I woke up to a temp of 36º that morning. I didn't pay attention to the dew point though and I figured we were probably cooked. What a great day that turned out to be though. http://nws.met.psu.edu/severe/2003/5-6Dec2003.pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_2003_nor%27easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just curious... but when do you recall the last time that the models were overdoing midlevel warming? That's the opposite of their usual bias... They tend to overdo it from my experience in non-WAA type setups, this would classify as that since its a cold sector issue of 850s being above 0C and not being in a SW to NE flow ay 850mb when WAA is normally underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It has a great pattern at 168 hrs. Beautiful +pna. It definitely has a lot of potential. WE need to build the -NAO like we had a few week ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Accu pro EURO comes out later, we use Stormvista Maps are delayed, MOS is almost instantly updated...he just checked and confirmed was 12z numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Accuweather Pro Figured as much, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Even if a warm nose sticks through 60-62 hours I have a feeling there could be a period of sleet...again though as someone else said that is quite uncharacteristic of how these storms usually evolve, its usually a quick rain to snow transition...the dew points advected down from the CT Valley where it was cold and clear the night before, the same sort of thing could happen with this event if you check the data in CT and MA for temps/dps during the morning. Cool thanks for bringing this up. Anyhow, it does appear the 2003 storm did have a HP present in eastern Canada though that probably helped out big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 does the euro still show the big bomber next week that DT has been gushing about?? Its agreeing with the GEM on being more south with the weekend clipper than the GFS is though the GFS did seem to trend south from previous runs...I don't know if I believe it since those types of systems will usually go or are favored to go north of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 They tend to overdo it from my experience in non-WAA type setups, this would classify as that since its a cold sector issue of 850s being above 0C and not being in a SW to NE flow ay 850mb when WAA is normally underdone. How is it not a WAA situation? Winds during the first portion of the storm E to SE at 850... looks like WAA to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just curious... but when do you recall the last time that the models were overdoing midlevel warming? That's the opposite of their usual bias... It was posted yesterday with graphs but the EURO has had a bias with warming recently, and the GFS (and this part is confusingm in teh longer range has shown a cold bias, but within 48 hrs it to has had a warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How is it not a WAA situation? Winds during the first portion of the storm E to SE at 850... looks like WAA to me. To an extent the high is still pulling a screw job at 54 hours....without the high to the east the flow around the east side of the storm would not be so violently strong out of the SE and less warm air would likely be pulled in at the mid-levels....I probably shouldn't have phrased it as WAA but stated more that SW to NE flow events is usually where the models underdo the warmth and much less so in a case like this where its more a typical warm air wrapping around the east side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It was posted yesterday with graphs but the EURO has had a bias with warming recently, and the GFS (and this part is confusingm in teh longer range has shown a cold bias, but within 48 hrs it to has had a warm bias. Tell the folks in S Jersey and PHL metro that... the ones who ended up changing over on Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking at FRG and ISP on AccuWx Euro text output, hard interpolating between six hour points, but the Euro solution based on surface and 850 mb temps, maybe a little snow at the end, but almost entirely rain Eastern Nassau/Suffolk. I suspect little or no accumulation. On the other hand, ballpark 3ºC, 37ºF warmest 2 meter temp, may not lose a whole lot of existing snowpack. Total QPF a bit over an inch, and agains, it looks mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 A little weenieistic on my part but elevation in NW Chesco and Berks might play a significant role in the outcome here. Might be one of those events where a few miles and 500' in elevation could make a dramatic difference in accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Friend just texted me MOS output for 12z EURO: KNYC: .69 Snow .60 Rain/Mix KEWR: .67 Snow .59 Rain/Mix Not bad at all and in line with what I imagined it would be. Thanks for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Maps are delayed, MOS is almost instantly updated...he just checked and confirmed was 12z numbers wow thats good to know here I was waiting til the graphic updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking at FRG and ISP on AccuWx Euro text output, hard interpolating between six hour points, but the Euro solution based on surface and 850 mb temps, maybe a little snow at the end, but almost entirely rain Eastern Nassau/Suffolk. I suspect little or no accumulation. On the other hand, ballpark 3ºC, 37ºF warmest 2 meter temp, may not lose a whole lot of existing snowpack. Total QPF a bit over an inch, and agains, it looks mostly rain. I doubt the surface or boundary layer is a problem for Long Island in this event, my guess is the trouble could come if some stubborn layer stays .5 or .7 above freezing at 870mb and causes tons of sleet....I just don't buy issues in the BL given it likely will be clouded over early in the morning, the wind flow is NE and there may be an ample period of radiational cooling early the night before.....this is an event where LGA could snow for 8 hours and JFK for 4 due to sleet issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WOW. The euro basically shoves the PV into the Northeast. Frigid temps late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.